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This Sunday (14 Could), the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia will resume peace talks in Brussels. They comply with the assembly of Armenian overseas minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani overseas minister Jeyhun Bayramov and their delegations from 1-4 Could at US-hosted talks in Arlington, Virginia.
Some sources even declare that the assembly in Brussels would possibly result in peace treaty. Regardless that not a lot has been stated concerning the particulars of the talks within the US, it’s nonetheless a relatively stunning improvement trying on the variety of incidents which have occurred on the bottom this 12 months.
Within the newest one, on 23 April, Azerbaijan arrange a checkpoint on the one street that connects Karabakh and Armenia — the Lachin Hall — blatantly ignoring a ruling of the Worldwide Court docket, which had referred to as on Baku to cease the blockade of the enclave which had already begun in December 2022.
And to start with of April, a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan even led to seven troopers being killed. The overall worry of a extreme outbreak of violence was additionally echoed in an interview of the top of mission of EUMA, the EU’s monitoring mission in Armenia, the place he claimed that “Many Armenians imagine there will be a spring offensive by Azerbaijan. If this does not occur, our mission is already a hit.”
EUMA will (as soon as absolutely operational) encompass 100 unarmed personnel, of which about 50 will work as screens.
Baku has not been glad concerning the deployment, continuously complaining about EUMA. President Ilham Aliyev described EUMA with its expanded mandate as “very disagreeable” and felt it could disrupt direct negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
To ease tensions, the mission and the EU’s particular consultant (EUSR) inform Azerbaijan upfront concerning the routes that the screens plan to take.
The clashes round Karabakh and on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the last two months have proven how risky the scenario is, and that the EU is taking fairly a danger in deploying EUMA to the border area.
The mission intends to contribute to lowering tensions within the battle areas and close to the border between the 2 international locations. It additionally feeds into analyses of the scenario on the bottom and in that approach helps inform the EU’s efforts on border delimitation and demarcation. This consists of the realm close to the Lachin hall and Nagorno-Karabakh.
However the EU is dealing with potential pitfalls.
Russian forces in Armenia
Russia has been skeptical of EUMA, contemplating the mission an try to displace Russian affect within the area. Along with the two,000 peacekeepers in Karabakh, Russia has almost 3,000 army and Federal Safety Service (FSB) border guards in Armenia, controlling, amongst different issues, the state border with Iran.
In addition they intercepted a number of patrols of the EU’s short-term predecessor mission in 2022 on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. This exhibits that in locations the place the demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unclear EUMA, too, might discover itself in tough conditions.
An elevated engagement by EUMA and the talks led by EU Council president Charles Michel are usually not solely a chance for the EU to make an necessary contribution to the stabilisation of the battle — it may be a turning level for the South Caucasus, the place the normal Russian presence is struggling to retain its affect.
Germany has grow to be the main contributor to EUMA, not solely offering the German head of mission, but additionally about 15 p.c of EUMA’s employees, by far the most important nationwide contribution of any EU member states.
Berlin may be seen as a extra impartial dealer than Paris, which has been hamstrung by Azerbaijan’s declare that it’s merely performing on behalf of the massive Armenian group in France. Each chancellor Olaf Scholz and overseas minister Annalena Baerbock have highlighted the German contribution to EUMA in latest speeches.
And it was on the Munich Safety Convention in February 2023, the place Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan met the final time and even shared a panel.
In 2023, the EU instructions an attention-grabbing mixture of devices, which now appear to yield helpful outcomes.
EUMA can observe, confirm, and construct belief on the border, complementing the demarcation course of, the tripartite talks between Michel, Pashinyan and Aliyev, and the work of the EU particular consultant for the Southern Caucasus and Georgia.
For Armenia and Azerbaijan, the talks in Virginia and now in Brussels can provide a singular likelihood for peace — even powerful incidents from the bottom would possibly proceed to inform a distinct story.
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