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It’s Week 4 within the NFL.
Time to speak in regards to the New York Jets’ future at quarterback.
Alas, the Jets discover themselves in a quarterback conundrum, one which has felt unending for the previous few … a long time. Zach Wilson is clearly not the answer, now or sooner or later. This season feels prefer it might go off the rails rapidly, if it hasn’t already, ought to he stay the starter. The Jets are 1-2 and face the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, the defending Tremendous Bowl champions, on Sunday night time.
There’s quite a lot of dialogue about what the Jets ought to do at quarterback proper now — signal Carson Wentz, commerce for Gardner Minshew, and so forth. — however that might solely present a brief repair. They signed Trevor Siemian to the observe squad on Tuesday, however he’s not precisely a playoff-caliber quarterback, both. Siemian, 31, misplaced the battle to be Joe Burrow’s backup to Jake Browning over the summer season.
There are legit questions on what the Jets’ future seems like at quarterback, whether or not Aaron Rodgers returns in 2024 or not. Proper now, he appears to need to play subsequent season.
With Rodgers out with an Achilles tendon tear, the Jets are clearly now not contenders in 2023, like they had been alleged to be. If this season goes poorly sufficient, it’s honest to wonder if it’s going to value anybody (like coach Robert Saleh) their jobs. That additionally components into the equation. There are just a few other ways this will go.
Possibly it ends with the Jets lastly determining the quarterback place. Historical past says: Don’t financial institution on it.
However right here is all the pieces to contemplate: from Rodgers, to Wilson, to potential 2024 free company targets and whether or not the Jets may take into account drafting a quarterback within the first spherical (once more).
The Aaron Rodgers issue
When Rodgers spoke to Pat McAfee in his first interview post-Achilles damage, he threw down the gauntlet: “Give me the doubts. Give me the timetables. Give me all of the issues that you just assume can, ought to or will occur, as a result of all I want is that one little additional % of inspiration; that’s all I want. Give me your timetables. Give me your doubts. Give me your prognostications, after which watch what I do.”
Clearly, he’s extremely motivated. Rodgers additionally didn’t say something definitive, although, and is susceptible to altering his thoughts. Bear in mind: By his personal admission, he was 90 % certain he would retire till his “darkness retreat” in February.
Rodgers has quite a lot of time to sit down round and take into consideration his future. Proper now, he’s mendacity round his residence in Malibu, ready for the clearance to fly again to New Jersey to be with the Jets as he rehabs.
If Saleh and basic supervisor Joe Douglas need to discover solace in something, it’s that the promise (or theoretical promise) of Rodgers returning in 2024 ought to maintain their jobs secure, except this season really turns right into a catastrophe. If the Jets fall wanting the playoffs, once more, regardless of having a playoff-caliber roster, it wouldn’t be out of character for proprietor Woody Johnson to name for some type of main change. The Jets’ offense has been the worst within the NFL by most metrics, which might presumably put offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett on the chopping block.
However keep in mind: Rodgers has publicly said since his introductory information convention that Hackett was the highest motive why he finally determined to hitch the Jets. In the event that they moved on from Hackett, would that change Rodgers’ plan? Rodgers has additionally spoken extremely of Saleh. This all begs the query of how dedicated Rodgers truly is to taking part in for the Jets — and nobody else — in 2024.
The Jets in all probability will probably be 1-3 after Sunday’s sport in opposition to the Chiefs. In a worst-case state of affairs, what in the event that they win someplace within the vary of 4 to 6 video games?
That’s not even factoring within the different facet of the Rodgers equation: He was already seen by some across the league as on the decline, as a 39-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season with the Packers. In 2024, he’ll be a 40-year-old quarterback coming off Achilles surgical procedure. And even when it goes properly, would Rodgers truly need to maintain taking part in past subsequent 12 months?
These are all unanswerable questions proper now, however all issues the Jets might want to issue into their decision-making subsequent offseason — and to begin interested by before later.
Zach Wilson, and how one can transfer on
Possibly Rodgers’ future is unclear. However Wilson’s shouldn’t be.
He isn’t an NFL-caliber beginning quarterback, it doesn’t matter what Saleh stated after Wilson’s newest stinker, a 15-10 loss to the Patriots.
“Generally the field rating doesn’t at all times inform the story,” Saleh stated.
Saleh benched Wilson twice final season — first for Mike White, then for Chris Streveler throughout a Week 16 loss to the Jaguars. Saleh didn’t even take into account taking part in Wilson in Week 18 in opposition to the Dolphins, a meaningless sport after the Jets had already been eradicated from the playoffs.
Now, Saleh appears to be in much less of a rush to bench him once more. Till Tuesday, Tim Boyle was the Jets’ solely different choice at quarterback, as Douglas had confoundingly declined to signal anybody else within the weeks since Rodgers’ damage.
“I feel he’s taking part in with confidence,” Saleh stated of Wilson. “I feel he’s delivering, he’s throwing the ball precisely when it’s in timing and rhythm, and his foot hits his backstep and he lets that factor rip, it’s fairly. He’s doing a very nice job in that regard.”
Per TruMedia, Wilson ranks final amongst 34 qualifying quarterbacks in completion proportion (52.4), passer ranking (57) and EPA per dropback (-0.30), and his common time to throw (3.12 seconds) is the longest within the NFL. He additionally ranks thirty first on go makes an attempt touring 20-plus yards, thirty first in touchdown-to-interception ratio and thirty second in yards per go try. Professional Soccer Focus ranks him thirty second of 34 qualifying quarterbacks with just one “massive time throw” in 84 go makes an attempt.
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The Jets shouldn’t be taking part in one other sport with him as their beginning quarterback, they usually definitely can’t go into 2024 with the chance of getting to play him once more. In the end, one of many largest errors the Jets made this offseason was not bringing in a veteran quarterback to compete with Wilson to be Rodgers’ backup. It seems particularly dangerous after different high quality backups signed elsewhere for affordable, like Minshew (one 12 months, $3.5 million), Teddy Bridgewater (one 12 months, $3 million), Josh Dobbs (one 12 months, $2 million) and White (two years, $8 million).
Wilson can’t be the Jets’ starter in 2024. He can also’t be their backup. Reducing him could be pricey — $11.1 million lifeless cap, zero financial savings — so possibly they will persuade somebody to take Wilson off their arms for a conditional late-round decide. Baker Mayfield (the 2018 No. 1 decide of the Browns) was traded to the Panthers for a fifth-round decide in 2022, however he’d completed greater than Wilson has up to now. The Jets may need to accept a seventh.
If Rodgers stays …
The Jets nonetheless have to make some strikes at quarterback. The No. 1 precedence this offseason could be so as to add a greater No. 2 quarterback, and in addition decide whether it is price drafting a quarterback to develop for the longer term. I’d heard the Jets had been even keen to choose a quarterback in 2023 if the correct one had fallen to them (none did).
If the Jets merely add a veteran backup, some projected free-agent choices embrace Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Tyler Huntley, Minshew and Dobbs.
As for the NFL Draft: What if Rodgers sticks round? The Jets will maintain their first-round decide in 2024 since Rodgers gained’t play 60 % of the workforce’s snaps this season. As a substitute, the Packers get the Jets’ second-round decide as a part of the Rodgers commerce.
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I requested Nick Baumgardner, one in all The Athletic’s draft writers, for his or her quarterback choices subsequent spring. Right here’s what he instructed me:
“With the roster so robust elsewhere, the Jets can enter the Caleb Williams-Drake Maye sweepstakes if they need. It will value so much, after all — a bunch of future picks (together with a number of firsts and certain a sweetener). New York might do that with or with no wholesome Rodgers, although sitting a participant like Williams or Maye for a 12 months doesn’t actually really feel price it.
“A extra affordable scenario could possibly be to simply stick and decide. This draft class is the perfect we’ve seen on the QB place in years, and never simply on the prime. The depth right here is terrific. Williams and Maye will probably be gone early, however Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and even Duke’s Riley Leonard could possibly be affordable choices to sit down behind Rodgers for a 12 months earlier than strolling into an awesome scenario. All would match the Jets’ present system and are versatile sufficient to play in others. These are younger passers who’ve first-round traits when it comes to arm expertise and athleticism however may require a while earlier than discovering their groove within the NFL. The expertise outweighs the dangerous habits, however dangerous habits exist right here. Studying below Rodgers could be terrific for any of those guys.
“The Jets might additionally simply wait and play the board, particularly if Rodgers is again wholesome for yet another 12 months. The thought of snagging Oregon’s Bo Nix or LSU’s Jayden Daniels in a later spherical can be intriguing. Shedding Rodgers is a catastrophe and this season goes to be actually exhausting for Jets followers, clearly. However there’s hope right here due to the depth of this upcoming QB class.”
If Rodgers goes …
Properly, then the Jets virtually definitely would look into drafting a younger quarterback. If Rodgers not returning additionally means Douglas and/or Saleh had been fired, that might turn into extra doubtless. If Rodgers didn’t return and Douglas was retained? Then the Jets is likely to be extra keen to pursue a veteran who might help them win immediately.
By way of free brokers, the Jets might attempt their hand (once more) at signing Kirk Cousins. The Jets seemed into Matthew Stafford this offseason earlier than getting Rodgers. And the connection between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals bears watching.
In the end, although, if Rodgers doesn’t return, it’s doable the Jets merely flip to a different rebuild.
(Prime illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; photographs: Patrick McDermott and Al Bello / Getty Pictures)
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