![](https://i0.wp.com/www.newmandala.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/395843385_650060703975687_2251885270914695256_n.jpg?ssl=1)
On 22 November, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo inaugurated Basic Agus Subiyanto as the brand new chief of the Indonesian Armed Forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, or TNI). Agus’ appointment raised eyebrows for plenty of causes.
One was the untimely means of his nomination. Basic Subiyanto went from Military Chief of Employees (Kasad) to TNI Chief in simply lower than a month. One other was that his army profession showcased an fascinating monitor document, with the final having held plenty of positions that intersected with President Jokowi’s political profession. Agus was Commander of Surakarta Navy District (Dandim 0735/Surakarta) in 2009–2011 when Jokowi was the mayor of the Central Java metropolis (which is colloquially often called Solo). In 2020–2021, he served as a commander of Presidential Safety Forces (Paspampres), which offer shut private safety to the president and different VIPs.
An analogous scenario occurred earlier than when Jokowi appointed Hadi Tjahjanto as TNI chief again in 2017. Hadi was a former commander of Adi Soemarno Air Base in Solo (2010–2011), additionally throughout Jokowi’s mayorship. The sample additionally occurred within the appointment of Police Chief (Kapolri) Listyo Sigit Prabowo in 2021. Listyo served as Solo’s police chief (Kapolres) in 2011 and Jokowi’s presidential adjutant in 2014.
The elevation of Agus Subiyanto has accomplished Jokowi’s concerted effort to cement his political energy amidst the upcoming nationwide elections in 2024. As an incumbent in his final yr of workplace, Jokowi has gone the additional mile to make sure that he’s surrounded solely by trusted confidantes who’ve supported him and can stay loyal to him.
How can we clarify the sample of prime army management appointments throughout Jokowi’s presidency? In what methods has the location of the “president’s males” as prime army leaders consolidated Jokowi’s affect over the army?
From mandala politik to personalistic relationships
Within the early a part of his first time period, Jokowi was virtually a lame duck president. Although he after which vp Jusuf Kalla acquired a majority of votes within the 2014 elections, and have been supported by an enormous variety of volunteers, Jokowi quickly realised that he should accommodate not solely PDI-P, the political get together that nominated him, but additionally different coalition events.
A collision of pursuits between Jokowi and the events first appeared when Jokowi nominated, then cancelled, the nomination of Budi Gunawan, then a police commissioner common, as nationwide police chief. Budi had been reported to have a suspicious amount of cash in his checking account, and the Corruption Eradication Fee (KPK) introduced him as a suspect in a graft case. However his nomination to guide the police pressure was strongly supported by PDI-P. Jokowi’s relationship with PDI-P fell into disaster after Widodo cancelled Budi’s nomination after a public outcry.
Jokowi reacted to the unstable political scenario by forging a political alliance with the army, and to some extent the police. He consolidated assist by appointing army figures over whom he may greatest assert his affect, establishing himself because the centre of affect, or mandala politik. This technique was mirrored within the appointment of Gatot Nurmantyo as TNI chief in 2015 and Tito Karnavian as police chief in 2016. Jokowi appointed these figures as a result of their alternate options have been seen have comparatively nearer relations with PDI-P. Jokowi then strengthened his affect over the army by accommodating the enlargement of its position in non-defence affairs—akin to signing MoUs of cooperation with numerous civilian ministries and state-owned enterprises, and harnessing its capability to conduct so-called “army operations aside from battle” (operasi militer selain perang, or OMSP), significantly on counter-terrorism.
One other hit to Jokowi got here within the type of the large 2016 rallies organised by Islamist teams—which coalesced into the 212 Motion—calling for the arrest of Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, Jokowi’s successor as governor of Jakarta, on prices of spiritual blasphemy. The issue for the president was that his TNI chief Gatot Nurmantyo appeared to aspect with the Islamist lots (although Gatot later denied accusations alongside these strains). On different events, Gatot didn’t hesitate to criticise then defence minister Ryamizard Ryacudu, his then military chief of workers, and the nationwide police. Gatot’s maverick, if not erratic, behaviour as TNI chief made Jokowi anxious about whether or not he may exert full management over the armed forces. On prime of that, Jokowi’s relationship with PDI-P remained unstable, because of the ongoing political tug of battle between the president and PDI-P get together chair, former president Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Associated
Jokowi’s post-election sport plan
The president has put all his chips on Prabowo within the hopes of securing affect past 2024. Will it work?
Later in his first time period, nonetheless, Jokowi’s relationship with the army and police management then began to vary, because the president started to encompass himself with generals who had long-standing relationships with him. He appointed Hadi Tjahjanto—whom Jokowi, as talked about above, had recognized whereas he was mayor of Solo —as TNI chief in December 2017. The following two TNI Chiefs, Basic Andika Perkasa and Admiral Yudo Margono, didn’t have a protracted standing private relationship with Jokowi; each, nonetheless, had extensively lobbied the president and PDI-P to safe their nomination. Jokowi additionally appointed Listyo Sigit Prabowo, one other acquaintance of Jokowi since his mayorship in Solo, as police chief in January 2021. The current appointment of Agus Subiyanto as TNI chief has has introduced again the Solo connection on the prime of the army.
One other try of consolidating the president’s affect over the army is mirrored within the routine reassignment, or mutasi, of military territorial commanders. 4 of the present 15 chiefs of the military’s Regional Instructions (a place often called Panglima Kodam, or Pangdam) are significantly related to debate (see desk beneath). In March 2023, Main Generals Mohamad Hasan and Novi Helmy Prasetyo have been appointed respectively as Pangdam Jaya (in Jakarta) and Pangdam Iskandar Muda (in Aceh). A part of each males’s tour of responsibility, apparently, embrace Surya Kencana Navy Resort (Danrem 061/Surya Kencana) in Bogor, West Java, and repair because the Paspampres group commander. Korem 061/Surya Kencana is situated in Bogor, a metropolis well-known for its botanical gardens—and the palace the place President Jokowi usually works and holds conferences with international leaders and different VIP visitors. Subsequent, Main Basic Tri Budi Utomo has been appointed Pangdam VI Mulawarman, stationed in Balikpapan, East Kalimantan. Tri isn’t any stranger to Jokowi: he was Paspampres commander from August 2021 till June 2022. Final however not least, Main Basic Widi Prasetijono, present Pangdam IV/Diponegoro primarily based in Semarang, overseeing Central Java and Yogyakarta provinces, as soon as served as Jokowi’s adjutant and as Paspampres commander.
In tandem with Solo connection, excursions of responsibility in Korem 061 Suryakencana, Bogor and in Paspampres appear to have given army officers a bonus in establishing private connections with, and in coming underneath the tutelage of, the president.
Identify | Present place (Interval) | Solo connection (Kodim 0735/Surakarta) | Korem 061/Surya Kencana | Paspampres | President’s adjutant |
Basic Agus Subiyanto | TNI Chief, November 2023–current | Commander, 2009–2011 | Commander, 2020 | Commander, 2020–2021 | – |
Main Basic Mohamad Hasan | Commander of Jayakarta Regional Command (Pangdam Jaya), Jakarta, March 2023–current | – | Commander, 2018–2019 | Group A Commander, 2016–2018 | – |
Main Basic Novi Helmy Prasetya | Commander of Iskandar Muda Regional Command (Pangdam Iskandar Muda), Aceh, March 2023–current | – | Commander, 2019–2020 | Group D Commander, 2013–2015 | – |
Main Basic Tri Budi Utomo | Commander of Mulawarman Regional Command (Pangdam VI/Mulawarman), East Kalimantan, June 2022–current | – | – | Commander, 2021–2022
Group A Commander, 2018–2019 |
– |
Main Basic Widi Prasetijono | Commander of Diponegoro Regional Command (Pangdam IV/Diponegoro), Central Java, April 2022 | Commander, 2011–2012 | – | – | Jokowi’s army aide, 2014–2016 |
As well as, the appointment of police Commissioner Basic Nana Sudjana as caretaker governor of Central Java province has raised eyebrows, since Nana beforehand served because the chief of Solo’s metropolis police pressure (Kapolres) in 2010–2011, whereas Jokowi was mayor there. In the meantime, Central Java Police Chief Inspector Basic Ahmad Luthfi was the deputy police chief in Solo in 2011. The scenario turns into extra intriguing as Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the oldest son of Jokowi and present Mayor of Solo, is operating as Prabowo Subianto’s vice presidential candidate and serves as the pinnacle of the pair’s marketing campaign staff for Central Java and Yogyakarta.
The army underneath Jokowi
Unwavering assist from the army is important for Jokowi for at the least three causes.
First, assist from the army—particularly together with the assist of the police—may help Jokowi to protect the home safety stability that he requires with a view to fulfil his financial ambitions.
1000’s of personnel, stationed at regional military territorial instructions (Kodam) all around the archipelago, have been mobilised to construct roads, bridges, and different amenities. This infrastructure growth program known as “TNI Manunggal Membangun Desa” (TMMD), a group service that the previous military chief of workers Basic Mulyono (2015–2018) as soon as stated “mirrored the Indonesian military’s id as the military of Indonesian residents.” The army has additionally been concerned in agricultural initiatives, offering manpower, gear, and logistics to open up new farming land in lots of areas. Furthermore, extra troops are presently deployed, both on official responsibility or in aspect job preparations, to supply safety companies in industrial and mining areas, in addition to palm oil plantations designated as “nationwide very important objects” (obvitnas). On this sense, Jokowi has supplied a handy area for the army to keep up its company pursuits in pursuing missions primarily based on its territorial command construction.
Second, the army has been performing as a balancing energy in opposition to Jokowi’s political opposition. As outlined above, Jokowi’s standing as an outsider in nationwide politics initially put him in a good scenario vis-a-vis his political opponents, together with his personal get together, PDI-P. The appointment of retired army officers in lots of strategic civilian posts alerts Jokowi’s intentions to ascertain a political alliance with the army. Navy retirees, or purnawirawan, have been useful in synchronising the army agenda with the president’s pursuits.
Third, the consolidation of army assist for Jokowi will are available in helpful to assist his electoral pursuits within the 2024 elections. President Jokowi himself initially said he’ll intervene (cawe-cawe) within the elections for the “good of the nation.” The appointment of Agus Subiyanto illustrates the significance of Solo connections within the president’s political machine, mitigating the chance of political battle which may ensue within the electoral competitors forward. Such turbulence may take a number of kinds. For example, Jokowi may need to face a backlash as an end result of his strained relationship with PDI-P. The appointment of those army officers might sharpen the mistrust of the president’s political opponents in direction of him, and heighten doubts in regards to the neutrality of safety equipment, who’re already underneath heavy scrutiny.
Stagnant transformation, reform regression
Jokowi’s politicking over the army poses at the least three potential points. First, it might probably distract the Indonesian army from its major responsibility of nationwide defence. This consequently creates a problem for the pursuit of army modernisation and transformation. The event progress of the TNI’s new defence constructions itself, such because the Joint Defence Regional Command (Kogabwilhan), usually are not but as much as scratch. Kogabwilhan have been established in 2019 in three completely different provinces (Riau Islands, East Kalimantan, and Central Papua) and are designed to combine military, navy and air pressure sources. Moreover, the delay in finishing the Minimal Important Pressure 2024 goal has added one other problem in modernising the Indonesian army.
Second, Jokowi’s try to ascertain his personal “gang” inside the army might invite resistance from different teams inside the armed forces. There isn’t any doubt that Jokowi’s favouritism in direction of those that share a Solo reference to him will sideline different potential figures. Such nepotism undermines the advantage system inside the TNI.
Third, Jokowi’s cultivation of the Solo connection has triggered doubts over the neutrality of the army because the 2024 elections method. The primary problem for brand new TNI chief Agus is to persuade the general public that the TNI will stay politically impartial. A dedication to uphold TNI non-partisanship has been his signature coverage since he was appointed as military chief of workers and, virtually instantly afterwards, as TNI chief.
The issue is that given Agus’ lengthy acquaintance with Jokowi, and the candidacy of Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo Subianto’s operating mate, such guarantees ring hole.
As the tip of his presidency attracts close to, Jokowi’s grip on the army has consolidated. The ascendancy of Basic Agus Subiyanto as TNI Chief displays the prominence of the Solo connection as consider figuring out intra-TNI elite preparations. This case, nonetheless, brings sure danger: degrading army professionalism, inviting inside friction, and sowing public mistrust in regards to the TNI’s dedication to neutrality, to not point out the general growth of Indonesia’s defence functionality.