Kazakhstan Continues to Break Ranks With Russia – The Diplomat

Crossroads Asia | Diplomacy | Central Asia

Kazakhstan is distancing itself from Russia – that was the unstated message in President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s remarks on the 2022 United Nations Normal Meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech saying a partial mobilization aired a day later. The 2 speeches exhibit how the 2 neighbors, shut protection and commerce allies, have vastly totally different views about international geopolitics and the warfare in Ukraine.

Tokayev devoted the primary a part of his September 20 speech to expressing his views in regards to the present international state of affairs. He argued, “[W]e should rethink the linkages between three primordial ideas: the sovereign equality of states, the territorial integrity of states, and peaceable coexistence between states.” He added that “the world is falling prey to a brand new set of navy conflicts,” with out mentioning Ukraine by title. Concerning nuclear weapons, the Kazakhstani head of state argued, “we face the prospect of using nuclear weapons, and never whilst a final resort,” and “we’re alarmed by the elevated rivalry and rhetoric of Nuclear States,” although he didn’t explicitly point out Russia.

A day later, on September 21, Putin introduced a partial mobilization. To justify this excessive choice he argued, “the aim of that a part of the West is to weaken, divide and finally destroy our nation.” Furthermore, he mentioned, the Russian authorities is prepared and prepared to make the most of nuclear weapons to guard Russian territorial integrity. Nevertheless, the thought of “territorial integrity” is imprecise and turns into much more sophisticated as Russian-held territories in Ukraine plan to prepare referendums to be annexed into the Russian Federation. Ought to these controversial referendums happen, Moscow can argue that Ukrainian operations in these territories are assaults towards Russia, which may take the battle to a brand new, extra harmful degree.

The dichotomy of each messages is self-evident.

Kazakhstan-Russia relations are advanced. On the one hand, the international locations keep cordial diplomatic relations, with stable protection and financial ties. Tokayev participated within the St. Petersburg Worldwide Financial Discussion board in June, which included a public assembly with Putin, and in addition attended the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in mid-September. Concerning navy affairs, Kazakhstani troops participated within the Russian-organized Military Video games in August.

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Alternatively, the Kazakhstani authorities has not expressed assist for Russia’s goals and operations in Ukraine. Astana (now not Nur-Sultan) has refused to acknowledge Ukraine’s separatist areas – a undeniable fact that was additionally subtly highlighted by Tokayev on the UNGA, as beforehand famous. Kazakhstan has not despatched troops to Ukraine and is towards Kazakhstani civilians combating for Russia. Furthermore, throughout a gathering with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan in August, Tokayev and the Azerbaijani chief spoke to one another of their nation’s respective mom tongues, not Russian, the lingua franca of the post-Soviet world. That is one other instance of regional international locations trying to distance themselves from Russia and the Soviet legacy. 

Extra just lately, on September 16, the U.N. Normal Meeting voted to have Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ship a pre-recorded speech. The choice was adopted by a recorded vote of 101 in favor and 7 towards (together with Russia and Belarus) with 19 abstentions. Kazakhstan didn’t vote, which will be interpreted as Astana looking for to not assist or antagonize Moscow.

Whereas the 2 governments usually take pleasure in cordial relations, it’s evident that Kazakhstan’s current choices haven’t happy the Russian authorities. In July, the Russian authorities briefly shut down the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which transports Kazakhstani oil via Russian territory. In early September, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on Vkontakte to his 2 million followers that Kazakhstan is an “synthetic state” and accused Astana of a “genocide” towards ethnic Russians dwelling in northern Kazakhstan. (The publish was deleted, and Medvedev’s group argued that his account had been hacked.)

The irony of Medvedev’s accusation is that many Russians will probably migrate to Kazakhstan within the close to future. Putin’s partial mobilization order has brought about Russian males to journey to Georgia, Turkey, the UAE, and different international locations to keep away from the draft. It’s too early to inform what number of Russians will transfer to Kazakhstan, however this situation must be monitored intently – current movies shared through Kazakhstani teams in Telegram present lengthy queues of automobiles on the Mashtakov border crossing between Samara (Russia) and Oral (Kazakhstan), although The Diplomat can not independently confirm after they have been recorded.

Whereas one presidential speech can simply be misplaced within the plethora of speeches, bulletins and side-meetings on the U.N. Normal Meeting, to not point out Putin’s announcement, Tokayev’s feedback are noteworthy. His not-so-subtle criticism of the Russian authorities concerning Ukraine shouldn’t be neglected. Whereas the Central Asian nation can not erase its Soviet historical past (there’s loads of historic revisionism occurring elsewhere), it’s incorrect to proceed viewing Kazakhstan as a part of Russia’s close to overseas.