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The chamber’s determine of three.8 per cent progress for 2023 is broadly in step with the 2-5 per cent enlargement predicted by a number of economists final week, who equally anticipated a lift from the tip to just about all Covid-19 curbs within the metropolis.
After three years of restrictions, Hong Kong and the mainland resumed quarantine-free journey on Sunday. A complete of seven checkpoints have returned to common working hours, however residents utilizing the land crossings should e book a spot on-line first, with the each day quota restricted to 50,000.
Calling the tempo of the reopening “unexpectedly speedy”, Leung mentioned enterprise sentiment had develop into extra constructive lately.
“However we’re solely beginning to progressively get better from a really weak scenario. It’ll take time for issues to completely restore regular. We hope the federal government can proceed doing one thing to help the enterprise sector,” he mentioned, pointing to a different spherical of consumption vouchers for example.
The coupons had been launched in 2021 in a bid to spice up town’s economic system, with every eligible resident receiving e-coupons price HK$5,000 (US$640). Final yr, a second spherical made HK$10,000 accessible to every eligible resident. The scheme has price the federal government near HK$100 billion in complete.
With an anticipated improve in financial actions and other people’s circulate, Leung anticipated the retailing sector may see a full rebound within the second half of 2023. The chamber predicted a ten per cent progress in retail gross sales within the yr, in addition to a 4.5 per cent progress in exports.
The enterprise foyer anticipated the jobless fee would additional ease to three.3 per cent for 2023. After hitting a 10-month excessive of 5.4 per cent within the February to April interval in 2022, the jobless fee has been steadily enhancing, falling to three.7 per cent in September to November, marking the seventh consecutive decline that yr.
However Leung cautioned native restoration was tied to rate of interest rises and world demand ranges, which had been affected by the lingering Russia-Ukraine warfare.
“It was projected that the height rates of interest within the US may very well be as much as 5 per cent in 2023. Inevitably, Hong Kong’s rates of interest may even maintain rising,” Leung mentioned, referring to the native foreign money’s peg to the American greenback.
Rate of interest rises would suppress family consumption and dampen enterprise funding, he warned.
Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung, govt director of Chinese language College’s Lau Chor Tak Institute of International Economics and Finance, known as the chamber’s forecast conservative.
“One shouldn’t be too shocked if we see a 5 per cent progress in 2023,” he mentioned. “On the one hand, there may be the low base impact. Final yr, we had a contraction. And with the reopening of the border, we will anticipate retailing and tourism to revive rapidly. The great sentiment can also assist shore up the inventory market.”
In the meantime, the chamber mentioned the federal government wanted to do extra to draw expertise following three years of pandemic woes which aggravated town’s mind drain which had seen the native workforce had shrunk by about 140,000 over the previous two years.
Chief Govt John Lee Ka-chiu rolled out a raft of measures in his maiden coverage in October to sort out the scarcity. Among the many new measures are particular visas and tax concessions on residence purchases for professionals from each the mainland and abroad.
“The federal government has appeared to deal with attracting high-end expertise,” Leung mentioned. “However there may be additionally a scarcity of labour within the middle-ranking and frontline ranges in lots of sectors. We hope the federal government can even ease labour import restrictions.”
In November final yr, the chamber requested 357 members about their outlook for 2023, and greater than half mentioned the measures Lee had unveiled to draw expertise didn’t go far sufficient.
When requested concerning the main challenges they confronted, the businesses put “mind drain” because the third-highest, behind cross-border journey restrictions and lowered enterprise actions as a result of social-distancing measures.
“A scarcity of expert staff has made it tough for these with hiring intentions to search out appropriate recruits. Except the problem is addressed correctly and successfully, the chamber believes it will likely be very tough to take care of our world competitiveness.”
Individually, Monetary Secretary Paul Chan disclosed on Monday that many main enterprises and start-ups within the innovation and know-how sector had been contacting the federal government over plans to open regional headquarters within the metropolis or broaden their enterprise right here.
“Some even have plans to be listed in Hong Kong,” mentioned Chan, who attributed it to the federal government’s insurance policies on attracting enterprises and abilities.
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