By: Dennis Ignatius
More and more distrustful of American overseas coverage, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim seems to be trying to China to “present checks and balances.” In a sequence of current media interviews, Anwar heaped effusive reward on President Xi Jinping, calling the Chinese language president an “excellent chief” and describing China as an necessary strategic accomplice for Malaysia. Observers additionally observe that Anwar seems to have an in depth private affinity for Xi and feels comfy aligning Malaysia extra carefully with Xi’s management in world affairs.
On the similar time, Anwar, as soon as the darling of Washington, has develop into extra strident in his criticism of America and the West. In not so many phrases, he has accused the US of complicity within the Gaza genocide, reached out to Hamas leaders in defiance of the US, criticized US-imposed sanctions in opposition to Iran, and dismissed American allegations. In an extra signal of his unhappiness with the US-dominated world order, Anwar introduced that Malaysia would search membership within the BRICS grouping of rising economies, a transfer that can invariably put Malaysia nearer to international locations like China, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa, all of which have develop into more and more cautious of American political and financial dominance in world affairs.
Nearer to house, Anwar has additionally forcefully dismissed Washington’s “incessant propaganda” that China is a risk to regional peace and stability, insisting that the area has no cause to worry China. Even on the hot-button concern of China’s territorial ambitions within the South China Sea, he has been adamant that ASEAN ought to be given the time and house to work out its variations with China with out outdoors [read American] interference. He has additionally made no secret of his view that the Philippines’ coverage of confronting China over conflicting territorial claims is counterproductive and in the end unsustainable.
Some observers see the Malaysian strategy as merely a recognition of present geopolitical realities. China is, in spite of everything, a quickly rising superpower proper on Malaysia’s doorstep. Malaysia’s prosperity is closely depending on China – China is Malaysia’s largest buying and selling accomplice, its largest supply of overseas funding, and a key infrastructure accomplice. Malaysia’s plantation and tourism sectors are additionally closely depending on China. Briefly, China is just too large, too worthwhile, and too necessary to antagonize.
It doesn’t assist too that there are few different lifelike choices open to small international locations like Malaysia. The US, after all, desires to see a extra strong regional response to China’s assertiveness within the South China Sea and is hoping to construct a regional safety consensus to problem China. However that’s unlikely to occur provided that the US is more and more seen as an unreliable and unpredictable ally.
Deep ideological variations inside the US physique politic have eroded consensus on overseas coverage. Every change in administration has introduced with it dramatic shifts in US coverage. President Obama’s Pivot to Asia alongside together with his Transpacific Partnership was shortly deserted by President Trump. When President Biden changed Trump, American coverage shifted once more with the Complete Strategic Partnership initiative, the AUKUS pact, and a extra hawkish response to China. If Donald Trump regains the presidency in November, US Pacific technique might shift but once more; international locations which have hitched their wagon to the US – just like the Philippines – might properly discover themselves up a creek and not using a paddle.
It stays to be seen, nonetheless, whether or not Anwar’s pivot to China shall be reciprocated to the identical diploma. There was some disappointment that Xi himself – for all of the reward and adulation showered upon him – didn’t take up the invitation to go to Kuala Lumpur together with the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic relations, although Premier Li Qiang gave the occasion some significance. Anwar himself has visited China twice since coming to energy in November 2022, and a 3rd go to is rumored to be on the playing cards.
Observers additionally observe that Anwar’s deferential place hasn’t stopped China from persevering with to intrude into Malaysia’s unique financial zone (EEZ) and harassing Malaysian fishermen and exploration vessels. Malaysia, like different ASEAN international locations, retains hoping {that a} code of conduct will be labored out with China, however after greater than twenty years of negotiations, it’s clear that China has little interest in any framework that may restrict its means to pursue its claims. Within the meantime, China has launched into a large army buildup within the South China Sea that should certainly fear ASEAN capitals, although they might be loath to confess it.
The Philippines’ expertise with China can also be instructive. Below former President Duterte, the Philippines bent over backwards to appease China. Duterte even distanced himself from a landmark ruling by the Everlasting Court docket of Arbitration that discovered China’s claims of historic rights inside the nine-dash line, which Beijing makes use of to demarcate its claims within the South China Sea, have been with out authorized basis and that Beijing’s actions inside the Philippines’ two-hundred-nautical-mile EEZ infringed on Manila’s sovereign rights. Appeasement, nonetheless, didn’t cease China from aggressively taking management of territory claimed by Manila. Certainly, the Philippines might quickly discover its tenuous maintain on the Second Thomas Shoal in jeopardy given current Chinese language strikes within the space.
However, for now no less than, the advantages of shut relations with China far outweigh future challenges to Malaysia’s sovereignty. Anwar’s pivot to China has been properly acquired, particularly inside the enterprise group, whereas his criticism of Washington and his transfer to affix the BRICS grouping has gone down properly amongst the bulk Malay-Muslim voting bloc who’re incensed with US assist for Israel.
For China, it’s, after all, a major diplomatic coup. As Premier Li Qiang famous throughout his go to to Malaysia earlier this month, “China-Malaysia ties are on the forefront amongst relations between regional international locations, and have set a benchmark and an instance.” The large query now’s how Washington will react to Anwar’s pivot to China.
Dennis Ignatius is a former Malaysian ambassador. He blogs at www.dennisignatius.com