Should-watch races on election night time (transcript)

Election Day is lastly right here! Becoming a member of us on “The Downballot” this week to preview all the important thing contests is Every day Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who has the products on races huge and small. Singer kicks us off by getting us in control on the battles for governor in Kentucky and Mississippi, two conservative Southern states the place it is Republicans who’re appearing apprehensive. Then it is on to main fights in Pennsylvania, the place a vacant state Supreme Courtroom seat is in play, and Ohio, the place an modification to enshrine abortion rights into the state structure is on the poll.

Singer additionally highlights a pair of bellwether legislative districts in Virginia, the place each chambers are up for grabs, after which it is on to some lesser-known—however nonetheless exceedingly necessary—races additional down the poll. A number of are additionally going down in swingy Pennsylvania, together with a vital contest that can decide who controls election administration in a serious county within the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats may even be hoping for a bounce-back within the county government’s race in Lengthy Island’s Suffolk County, an space that swung onerous to Republicans final yr.

Transcript has been frivolously edited for readability.

David Beard: Whats up and welcome. I am David Beard, contributing editor for Every day Kos Elections.

David Nir: And I am David Nir, political director of Every day Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast devoted to the various elections that happen under the presidency, from Senate to metropolis Council. Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts and depart us a five-star score and evaluate.

Beard: The massive day is lastly upon us. Election Day 2023 is sort of right here.

Nir: Hell, yeah. We’re previewing a number of the huge, huge races arising on Tuesday night time in addition to a number of the lesser-known affairs. And becoming a member of us is Every day Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer. We’ve got a ton of races to speak about. There are numerous that we can’t even get to speak about, so we’ve received to get shifting on this one. Be a part of us proper after the musical break and we’ll get began with our preview.

We’ve got been ready for this all yr and Election Day is lastly right here. Developing on Tuesday, our elections for a complete number of extremely vital places of work that we have been speaking about all yr on “The Downballot.” And becoming a member of us to preview them is Every day Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer. Jeff, thanks a lot for coming again on “The Downballot” as soon as once more.

Jeff Singer: Nice to be right here. Pleased Virtually Election Day.

Nir: Pleased Virtually Election Day certainly. And I’m definitely, as I am positive most of our listeners are, hoping that it’s going to in actual fact be a cheerful Election Day for us all. And I feel there’s some good cause to suppose that it is going to be. I wish to begin with what might be essentially the most outstanding race that’s going to be on the poll anyplace within the nation on Tuesday night time, and that’s the contest for Kentucky governor. And recently, we’ve got been seeing what simply reads like some completely horrible physique language coming from Republicans in relation to their very own assessments of their probabilities.

Singer: Sure. So one huge inform is Republicans have launched some polls and so they all present the Democratic Governor Andy Beshear forward. They fluctuate by how a lot, however we’ve not seen a single ballot displaying the Republican Legal professional Basic, Daniel Cameron, successful. Cameron simply added an advert that started “Andy Beshear is a nice-enough man, however our strategy is totally different.”

And that is form of the language you in all probability ought to have been utilizing a short time in the past, not the very finish of a marketing campaign. Some analysts have taken that as an indication that Cameron is aware of his huge slash-and-burn, painting Beshear because the avatar of a far-left radical reshaping of Kentucky, strategy is not actually working, and he has to form of attempt to give folks permission to vote towards him by saying, “He is good sufficient.” So not precisely what you’d need if you happen to’re the Republicans within the ultimate week of the election.

Nir: Yeah. And I really feel like we have seen this sort of strategy earlier than in some races. One aspect says, “Properly, our opponent’s a wonderfully good man however…” However I really feel like even when Cameron had been going with that message, how is {that a} successful message?

Singer: I feel the concept of it’s you are attempting to present conservatives who like Andy Beshear permission to vote towards him. So that you’re acknowledging, “Sure, he is good, however X, Y, and Z.” And I feel in the event that they tried that earlier, perhaps it might’ve been a bit simpler. However late within the marketing campaign is a bit late to shift technique.

The strategy they did attempt was to say, “Andy Beshear will indoctrinate your youngsters or set free criminals.” And that is a tried and true Republican strategy, however I feel it has some huge limitations, particularly once you’re speaking about an incumbent governor, particularly the son of a former governor, Steve Beshear, who was in style. I feel loads of voters who perhaps vote Republican for all the pieces else, however they like Andy Beshear, they spent 4 years with him. They know he isn’t going to attempt to do all these items the Republicans say he is been doing or actually needs to do.

And I do not know if Cameron actually had loads of good choices provided that Beshear is basically in style. However I feel if he had tried the “he is good however he is improper” strategy as a substitute of “he is the satan,” it might have gone otherwise. However earlier than I get a little bit forward of it myself, I am going to simply say it is Kentucky, a really purple state. Not many polls are on the market. Democrats keep in mind eight years in the past when Matt Bevin ran a very horrible marketing campaign however gained anyway as a result of it is Kentucky.

Nobody is saying Daniel Cameron cannot win. If he wins, it is going to be a giant upset however it could possibly occur. However I feel everybody, even Republicans agree, Andy Beshear is forward going into the ultimate week.

Nir: The opposite factor that has struck me as tremendous attention-grabbing is that there’s a problem that has been a focus of this race that’s completely stunning to me in Kentucky, and I am speaking about abortion. Beshear has truly made Cameron’s tremendous, tremendous excessive views on abortion a centerpiece. He introduced this up in a debate just lately. Democrats have been overtly speaking about it. They’ve even run advertisements about it.

And that alone, the truth that Republicans might presumably be on the defensive over abortion in a state as tremendous purple and conservative as Kentucky actually wows me.

Singer: Yeah. Precisely. It is not one thing we’d’ve seen earlier than the Dobbs resolution, however Kentucky final yr had a vote on whether or not to amend the structure to explicitly ban or move a near-total ban on abortion. Voters voted that down. It was shut, however they did it in purple Kentucky. There are numerous conservative voters who nonetheless just like the Republicans, however they suppose banning abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest goes too far. And people are in all probability the folks Cameron wants to achieve; would not seem to be he is reaching them.

Beard: And naturally, one of many themes of each this race and the race that we’re about to speak about is Democratic alternatives in very purple states, and notably after all for governorships. We have seen this through the years as ticket-splitting has gone down on the federal stage. Individuals wish to vote for his or her get together, quote-unquote, “for Senate, for Home, and naturally for president.” However there’s nonetheless a willingness, as we noticed 4 years in the past in Kentucky, to vote for the quote-unquote “different get together,” if you happen to really feel like there’s any individual who would do a very good job, that they don’t seem to be too far out of your state’s mainstream. We have seen that with northeastern Republicans and we have seen it with Beshear right here over the previous 4 years.

Singer: Yeah. Precisely. It is taking place nevertheless it very a lot nonetheless exists. And somebody like Andy Beshear who’s in style and comes from a really outstanding household, I feel he has a little bit of a gap that the majority candidates within the nation simply haven’t got. And being a preferred incumbent may be very useful too.

Beard: Sure. Now any individual who’s attempting to observe in Andy Beshear’s footsteps however doesn’t benefit from being a preferred incumbent governor, after all, is Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who’s the Democrat working for the governorship of Mississippi. So inform us about that race and why it is extra aggressive than your common Mississippi race.

Singer: Yeah. So Mississippi is a really dark-red state. Democrats final gained the governorship in 1999. They don’t have any statewide places of work, however the Republican Governor Tate Reeves just isn’t tremendous well-liked. Just about everybody agrees he is an asshole. That is one thing that just about everybody will agree with.

And Mississippi’s one in all 10 states that hasn’t expanded Medicaid. That is one thing that Presley has been specializing in. Additionally, there’s been this large misuse of welfare cash scandal that occurred in the course of the earlier administration of Republican Phil Bryant. However Reeves was lieutenant governor on the time. He has some connections to the gamers within the scandal, together with one Brett Favre who’s a Mississippi native.

Beard: Talking of the gamers.

Singer: Talking of the gamers. So Presley is hoping that he’ll have a gap that Democrats simply actually very not often get within the deep South. And he isn’t the one one who’s hoping this; the Democratic Governor’s Affiliation has given Presley near $4 million. This race is much costlier than it was 4 years in the past.

There’s actual cash getting in right here, however like Kentucky, there’s loads of fog taking place right here. Nobody fully is aware of what is going on on. Polling is restricted. A couple of weeks in the past, I feel this dialog would’ve been very totally different. There have been just a few public polls that stated Reeves is up someplace within the excessive single digits, low double digits, about what you’d anticipate even for an unpopular Republican governor of Mississippi. However the DGA did simply launch an inside from Public Coverage Polling that confirmed Reeves up only one level.

And the truth that they’re backing it up with actual cash makes us suppose they’re placing their cash the place their mouth is. They suppose that is actually aggressive. That is Mississippi, you may by no means go broke betting towards the Democrats, however there’s actual cash happening right here. This might be attention-grabbing on election night time. Very value watching.

Beard: Yeah. One other attention-grabbing problem that Presley has been campaigning on has been eliminating the grocery tax, one thing that we have seen in loads of different locations on a bipartisan foundation. The Republicans in Mississippi have seemingly not embraced this in all probability as a result of they’re so obsessive about slicing taxes for wealthy folks and everybody else, they want tax income from someplace. And so, they do not wish to lower the grocery tax. Presley has been pushing the elimination of the grocery tax to hopefully enchantment to loads of these lower-income white voters that Democrats gained years and years in the past and have been overwhelmingly Republican in more moderen years.

Singer: Precisely. And we prefer to see extra of those advertisements as a result of Mississippi, like Georgia, has an uncommon regulation. They are saying if you happen to do not win a majority of the vote within the common election, you go to a runoff on November twenty eighth, and there’s a third candidate on the poll, impartial Gwendolyn Grey. She dropped out just a few weeks in the past, and endorsed Presley, however she’s nonetheless on the poll. So if issues are actually shut and she or he will get sufficient assist, this might go to spherical two in just a few weeks.

Nir: And we should always be aware that that is the primary election cycle that this post-general election runoff, this Georgia-style runoff, would truly be in impact in Mississippi, that till a current change within the structure, and prompted by a lawsuit… the state had a very weird, nearly Electoral Faculty-like system for resolving races the place no candidate received a majority, the place a candidate solely received a plurality. You additionally needed to win a majority of the vote in a majority of districts within the state Home. It was completely cockamamie and in addition positively, positively slanted towards Republicans.

Actually, it was a vestige of the state’s 1890 white supremacist structure. So it isn’t that I’ll say a Georgia-style runoff is essentially going to be nice information for Democrats if we get that far. Nevertheless it’s definitely higher information than the system it changed. And yeah, forcing a runoff in Mississippi, that might actually be a hell of a factor.

Beard: Now one race that is in all probability been a little bit bit underneath the radar for folks outdoors of the state is in Pennsylvania the place they’ve a Supreme Courtroom election. Proper now they’ve 4 Democrats and two Republicans on the court docket with one emptiness as a result of a Democratic justice handed away. So this race is to fill that seat. Clearly, it is essential to maintain a majority on the seat. Clearly, it is essential to maintain a majority on the state Supreme Courtroom right here. That is not up proper now, however clearly 5 to 2 is loads higher than 4 to a few for Democrats with extra Supreme Courtroom races arising in future years. So inform us how that race is shaping up.

Singer: So this can be a statewide race between the Democrat, Dan McCaffrey, and the Republican, Carolyn Carluccio. They’re each judges and there is been little or no polling. One ballot confirmed McCaffrey up by six, nevertheless it was some time in the past. And Supreme Courtroom races are fairly onerous to ballot as a result of, whereas they’re so necessary, they usually simply do not interact the general public. The spending battle has been simpler to trace. Democrats have outspent the Republicans about two to at least one, regardless that Pennsylvania’s richest man, billionaire Jeff Yass, has been serving to Carluccio fairly a bit.

So that is one the place regardless that management of the court docket is not at stake, the stakes are very excessive. For one factor, each events are going to be taking a look at this to get some early signal on who might need the sting going into 2024. Additionally, there was a giant case heading into final yr’s election the place one of many Democratic justices, Kevin Doherty, sided with the Republicans on an important case over whether or not to rely mail-in ballots that had arrived on time however had lacking or incorrect dates listed on them. That was a giant deal. One voter even flew house from trip in Colorado to right her personal poll as a result of she simply noticed this as so necessary.

So whereas Democrats would have a majority, it doesn’t matter what, this seat actually might make the choice going into what can be many, many election lawsuits heading into 2024. And to make issues much more excessive stakes, Carluccio just lately talked to the Philadelphia Inquirer board about an endorsement. They requested her, “Did Joe Biden win in 2020?” And her preliminary response was, “I do not know.” They usually had been fairly surprised. She tried to stroll that again with a long-winded reply the place she stated, “Sure, however stuff.” And never what you need from a justice. Not too surprisingly, the Philly Inquirer endorsed McCaffrey.

Beard: Yeah, it is loopy to see these days that just about no Republican within the nation is completely satisfied to simply reply that query as a result of so many Republican main voters have been satisfied by Trump and his operation that there was both a dispute or Trump actually gained or no matter; that to simply say an announcement of truth is controversial amongst these Republican voters that these candidates want. So that they at all times find yourself tying themselves in knots attempting to not reply such a easy query.

Singer: Yeah, precisely. And this can be a common election, you suppose after the first she might simply say, “Yeah, completely, Biden gained.” However nope.

Nir: Yeah, that raises a query of whether or not she is a cynical political operator who’s apprehensive about turning off hardcore far-right Trumpist voters and apprehensive that they’ll keep house, or if she simply actually is within the thick of this shit and truly believes it. And you already know what? She had some feedback up to now about actually being very sympathetic to completely bogus claims of election fraud. I truly suppose that she’s a ding-dong and that she believes this bullshit and yeah, God, that is simply so pathetic for a state Supreme Courtroom Justice. Republicans actually could not discover somebody higher?

Beard: Yeah, I imply, Republicans in all probability prefer it. It’s loopy to see the quantity of people that have been Trump-pilled on this to a point. Even folks you’d suppose can be in any other case affordable folks, the messaging is so intense on the Republican aspect, if you happen to’re in that Republican echo chamber in any respect, there’s a lot bombardment in regards to the 2020 election, this and that. Simply something that you just see individuals who can be in any other case affordable say, “Oh, I do not know. I heard loads of stuff.” And it is similar to, come on, come on, simply take your self out of Fox Information for 5 seconds and you may see who gained the election.

Singer: And the particular person she beat within the main, that particular person, consider it or not, was a lot, a lot worse.

Nir: Properly, I do consider it. Properly, there’s yet one more huge statewide race that we’ve got to speak about, and that’s Ohio Difficulty 1. And this isn’t Groundhog Day, our listeners of “The Downballot;” they keep in mind very properly that Ohioans simply voted on Difficulty 1 in August. That was a distinct Difficulty 1. That was the Difficulty 1 to make poll initiatives a lot, a lot more durable to move. This Difficulty 1 is the modification to the state structure, the proposal that might enshrine abortion rights and a complete host of different associated reproductive rights into the state structure, rolling again Ohio’s near-total abortion ban that occurs to be on pause for the second however might simply be un-paused. What is going on on in Ohio, Singer?

Singer: Yeah, so this time we’re very pro-Difficulty 1.

Nir: Professional-Difficulty 1.

Singer: This Difficulty 1 would amend the state structure to safeguard reproductive rights as much as 22 to 24 weeks right into a being pregnant. And there hasn’t been an excessive amount of polling, however we did see two current numbers that confirmed it taking not less than 55% of the vote. So good signal, however poll measures may be onerous to ballot, particularly as a result of the Republicans, they’re as soon as once more attempting all of the hijinks they will to make this more durable to move. What they did this time was the Ohio Poll Board, which has a Republican majority, voted to rewrite the abstract, not the modification itself, however the abstract to alter some wording, to alter the phrase fetus to unborn baby, for instance. So that they’re hoping voters will have a look at that and go, “Oh, no.” We’ll see how that goes, however the modification that might go into the structure that is unchanged. And that is one other one the place the Republican physique language is not too assured.

Nir: Oh, horrible.

Singer: Yeah, the Republican governor, Mike DeWine, he is been working advertisements telling folks “vote no on Difficulty 1,” however he is additionally stated, “Okay, here is what you must do, vote no, that means the legislature can meet you, perhaps not half, however a little bit little bit of the way in which. They’re going to add rape and incest exemptions into the six-week ban.” However there isn’t any means he can truly make them do this. He can simply encourage them and so they’ve had the possibility to do that already and so they have not completed it. And he is saying, “Properly, okay, so if they do not do it, yeah, you possibly can move your individual modification then.” And I do not suppose that is a very persuasive argument, however he is attempting for it.

The excellent news can be that the pro-Difficulty 1, the pro-reproductive aspect, has been outspending their opponents. A couple of weeks in the past that was not the case. So individuals are seeing much more advertisements from the aspect that actually needs to move this. So we’ll see the way it goes. Polling is wanting good, however like many issues we’re speaking about, there are only a lot of uncertainties round these races. So we’ll simply must see on Tuesday.

Nir: I really feel like DeWine’s supply is such a sucker’s play; who’s going to be fooled by that? I actually simply cannot think about it. Singer, I wish to ask you, because you talked about the spending, what have the advertisements from either side been centered on? As a result of abortion was this proxy problem for the August Difficulty 1 vote, and we noticed the, I am simply going to say to simplify issues, the dangerous man aspect in August, made up all these cock-and-bull tales about what the abortion modification would do. What are they attempting to say this time and what are the reproductive rights forces countering with?

Singer: So what the anti-abortion aspect has been doing is they have been saying, “This may open the door to late-term abortions.” For one factor that time period, abortion rights advocates say, “do not use it, fully deceptive.” Not one thing that individuals simply exit and do. However they have been actually, actually specializing in that. And in the event that they do have a shock subsequent weekend and Difficulty 1 fails, Republicans are going to have a look at that and try to make each marketing campaign to counter abortion rights about “late-term abortions” and possibly if Difficulty 1 passes, they’ll attempt the identical factor. As a result of it is a type of issues that regardless that it would not occur, it sounds simply horrible to swing voters or that is what they’re hoping.

The professional-Difficulty 1 aspect, they have been having a a lot easier argument. They have been laying out loads of these horror tales about individuals who needed to get emergency abortions due to all these medical situations. They usually stated, “Beneath the present regulation, throughout a number of the worst moments of our lives once we actually need medical assist, we will not get it.” Or, “We’ve got to leap by way of all these hoops to get it.” And simply all these heartbreaking tales. And it has been a way more clear message.

Beard: To return for a second to the Mike DeWine argument, the concept that if Difficulty 1 narrowly fails and the anti-abortion aspect was to achieve success even by 5 votes, they’d so clearly take that as a validation of their complete stance and be like, truly, all of America needs to ban all abortions. That is what they’d take from this. On the possibility that they win this, they’re going to see that as proof that they’re heading in the right direction and they need to preserve going.

They don’t seem to be going to see, “Properly, we ran loads of advertisements about including exemptions and we managed to win. So the accountable factor to do can be to go to the Republican legislature and move some exemptions which might be nearer to most of the people’s view.” That’s by no means going to occur. So the concept that Mike DeWine is pushing that is simply laughable and actually I feel exhibits how disingenuous Mike DeWine is as a result of he is spent his entire profession attempting to current himself as this institution, regular, not-crazy Republican. And at each alternative he is stated good issues after which sided with the far-right Republicans on problem after problem.

Singer: Yeah, precisely. And Republicans, ever since Roe was overturned, have been on the lookout for some argument they will use to counter abortion advertisements. And in 2022, for many of it, the argument was, oh, we’re not going to even deal with that, we’re simply going to run advertisements on different issues. And nope, that did work in some races, however this is not going away for them. This isn’t going to be going again to the time when abortion was a problem that principally motivated the Republicans. That is simply not taking place underneath the present established order, and Republicans are going to want to take care of that.

Nir: Properly, that could be a good jumping-off level to speak in regards to the different big, big set of races going down on Tuesday night time. I am speaking after all in regards to the battle for the Virginia legislature. Each single seat within the state Senate and the state Home goes earlier than voters, and abortion has been a central problem there as properly. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin has by some means succeeded in getting some newspapers to cease utilizing the phrase ban to explain what he needs to do, calling it as a substitute a “restrict” — these are fucking synonyms. I imply, this once more looks like extra gaslighting within the DeWine fashion, however Singer, properly, let’s put a pin in that one. Why do not you give us a lay of the land, the general image of each chambers; we’ll speak about some key seats after which we’ll get into the messages which might be flying backwards and forwards from each side.

Singer: So the Republicans have a slender majority within the state Home of Delegates, 52 seats to the Democrats 48. Within the state Senate, it is the reverse: 22 Democrats, 18 Republicans. If Republicans handle to tie within the state Senate, they win the Chamber as a result of they maintain the Lieutenant Governor’s workplace. If there is a tie within the state Home, with no tiebreaker, we are able to have some very chaotic power-sharing agreements. So we’ll see how that goes, however hopefully will not come right down to that.

Nir: In order that implies that Democrats actually need to flip three seats within the State Home with the intention to take a real majority.

Singer: Precisely. And within the general image, Democrats are outspending Republicans at Affect, which has been actually nice about monitoring spending in all types of those races. They only tweeted in regards to the cash spent on advertisements, Democrats have spent 56%, and Republicans have spent 44%. Not an insurmountable gulf, nevertheless it’s there. And I feel that is stunning as a result of Glenn Youngkin, he has been talked about as a late presidential candidate and the Virginia elections are form of an audition for that. He has loads of wealthy donors that he is attending to fund his tremendous PAC. I do not suppose folks would’ve essentially anticipated Democrats would have the sting and even one this huge by way of spending.

Beard: Clearly there’s quite a lot of races in each chambers which might be going to be key right here. We went by way of a bunch of them just a few weeks in the past with Blue Virginia’s Lowell Feld. We encourage everybody to return and take heed to that in the event that they have not. However why do not you select a seat for us within the state Senate and a seat for us within the state Home that you just actually see as bellwethers that you may look to on election night time as to how issues are going?

Singer: Yeah, so within the state Senate, I am going to have a look at Senate District 31, it is in northern Virginia in Loudoun County. It is like just about each seat that individuals are going to be watching. It is a seat that Joe Biden gained a yr earlier than Glenn Youngkin gained it. Joe Biden gained 56% of the vote right here. Glenn Youngkin gained only a naked majority, 50% to Terry McAuliffe’s 49%. And the Democratic candidate is a prosecutor, Russet Perry. The Republican candidate is a businessman, Juan Pablo Segura, who’s the son of a billionaire.

And if you happen to requested me just a few months in the past, I’d’ve stated, yeah, Segura goes to be spending simply a lot cash, he simply has entry to a lot. However that is attention-grabbing. There have been new marketing campaign finance experiences that got here out the day we’re recording this. In line with the Virginia Public Entry Venture, which is one other good useful resource, Perry has truly raised a complete of $6 million to Segura’s $5 million. In order that’s a ton of cash simply happening in a really costly space. However once more, a bonus to the Democrats the place I feel perhaps a short time in the past we’d predict that the Republicans can be forward.

Nir: And one factor that we have to be aware about these Virginia races, they are typically among the many costliest legislative contests, actually anyplace within the nation. And it isn’t simply because Virginia has these contested elections nearly each single odd-numbered yr, however Virginia is one in all these wild west states. Sure, I do know it is on the East Coast. It is one in all these wild west states which have principally no marketing campaign finance limits in anyway.

So you possibly can have big donations from just about any supply flood into these campaigns. Yeah, it’s fairly attention-grabbing that the spawn of a billionaire is getting outraced by a former prosecutor. Although undoubtedly each side are getting huge cash assist, that positively doesn’t really feel like one thing I’d’ve anticipated.

Singer: Yeah, similar and that might be a very good signal. However in an off-year like this the place the one huge issues on the poll are legislative seats and a few native races, turnout is sort of the enemy. Previously, Republicans used to do very well in these races. That modified in the course of the Trump period. Particular election information has been actually good on that entrance, however Republicans actually, actually, really need management of the legislature. So, turnout is a giant variable. We’ll simply must see.

Nir: Yeah, that off-off-year Democratic turnout was simply at all times one thing to essentially, actually dread with massive and essential components of the Democratic coalition usually being the sort of voters who do not present up for these odd-numbered yr elections. However, as I feel you are alluding, Singer, we’ve got seen that actually change within the Trump period with extra highly-educated, more comfortable voters who are typically extra frequent voters coming into the Democratic fold. Clearly, 2021 sucked for Virginia Democrats and we’re tremendous fortunate that the state Senate wasn’t even up for election that yr. However lots of people have puzzled about this and perhaps we’re seeing a brand new period when the off-year elections truly do favor Democrats.

Singer: Yeah, it might be. I imply, 2022 went higher than anticipated. There have been some persuasive arguments that it wasn’t a lot Democratic turnout as Republicans had been horrible about successful swing voters. However we keep in mind what 2014 was like, fully totally different. So yeah, might see that taking place. And northern Virginia, that is a spot with loads of well-educated, prosperous voters, the kind of individuals who disproportionately present up, particularly in elections the place the presidency is not on the road. That is the bottom that Democrats did very well in flipping in the course of the Trump period. So, this can be a seat positively that’s going to have some implications.

Beard: Now let’s go to a distinct a part of Virginia for our state Home bellwether, perhaps someplace within the southeast, perhaps the Virginia Seashore space. Inform us a couple of district there.

Singer: District 97 within the Virginia Seashore space: it is one other Biden-Youngkin seat. Biden gained 55% of the vote right here, Youngkin gained 51%. And it has a Republican incumbent, Republican Delegate Karen Greenhalgh. The Democrats are fielding an Air Drive veteran, Michael Feggans. And that is an space that has been fairly politically unpredictable over the previous couple of years. That is positioned within the 2nd congressional district the place Republican Jen Kiggans simply flipped that seat final yr. However Democrat Aaron Rouse gained the particular election to succeed Kiggans in January. So, an space that has been Republican, nevertheless it’s going extra backwards and forwards and we’ll simply see which means it lands.

That is one other one the place Democrats do have the fundraising benefit, though it isn’t fairly as stark. In line with the Virginia Public Entry Venture, Feggans outraced Greenhalgh $3.2 million to $2.8 million, nevertheless it’s that shut by way of cash, nobody’s actually having a lot of an edge over anybody else. You get into diminishing returns territory, however nonetheless good to see. And that is positively one we’ll be taking a look at. It’s a aggressive district space that is gone backwards and forwards in the previous couple of years; good recipe for some unpredictability.

Nir: One factor I ought to add is that due to Virginia’s lax marketing campaign finance regime, you do not actually see impartial expenditures on this state as a result of the large entities can, usually talking, just about simply give no matter they wish to the candidates. I feel for essentially the most half, once we’re speaking about this candidate fundraising, it additionally in all probability encompasses most if not nearly all the spending in any given race. And there is additionally one different factor to level out, which is that Virginia has model new maps. These had been court-drawn maps after the state’s new redistricting fee fully fell aside and failed to provide maps of its personal. This has actually scrambled the enjoying area. And on this district, District 97 within the Home, you do have a Republican delegate searching for reelection, however in a few of these seats, it is nearly fairly troublesome to even say whether or not they’re truly a Democratic seat or a Republican seat. And what actually issues ultimately is that ultimate quantity and that is going to be 21 for Democrats within the Senate, 20 for Republicans, and 51 for both aspect within the Home.

Singer: Yeah, precisely. And so many of those districts are simply up for grabs. The spending edge is sweet to see, however this can be a place the place there are simply so many variables, so many various kinds of seats, that it’s onerous to foretell the place issues are going to be going into Tuesday.

Nir: Yeah, and loads of open seats as properly.

Singer: Precisely.

Beard: Yeah. And we’ll return to Pennsylvania, after all, one of the crucial necessary states from an electoral perspective. So, after all, we wish to see how a few of these key areas within the state go on this November forward of subsequent yr’s election. Let’s begin with Bucks County, a suburban space outdoors of Philadelphia, and a few actually necessary commissioner races there.

Singer: Bucks County: populous suburban space, nevertheless it’s not a type of suburban areas that actually swung far to the left in the previous couple of years. Has loads of middle-class, blue-collar voters, sort of balances out. It is voted for the Democrat presidential candidate in each election since 1992, however there have been some very shut calls. Hillary Clinton solely narrowly took it in 2016. Joe Biden gained it by a bigger margin, 52% to 47%, however not precisely true blue territory right here. And Republicans for years dominated Bucks County politics regionally. They managed the county fee from the 1983 elections till 2019 when Democrats flipped it. And Republicans now very a lot need it again.

Pennsylvania elects their county governments in lots of, however not all, counties otherwise than just about anyplace within the UA. For one factor, there isn’t any one county government in Bucks County or loads of different locations that you just simply elect or vote towards. There are three county commissioners and so they’re all elected countywide. They’re all on the identical poll, so you possibly can vote for a number of ones. However one of many bizarre twists is that regardless that there are three spots, every get together can solely nominate two candidates. So, except there occurs to be, say, a robust third-party candidate or impartial, which there not often is, it is at all times a two-to-one majority for any individual. The query is which get together.

And that is truly why in some actually purple or often some very populous blue counties, you may have somebody who’s elected countywide from the opposite get together and generally they’re going to say, “Look how in style I’m. I am a Democrat who gained in a really purple space,” when these bizarre guidelines received them there. However these are the principles. And there are two Democrat incumbents who gained in 2019. They’re working once more. Republicans have their very own incumbent and one other candidate; they’re hoping that Bucks County goes to return their means. And there is been some combined proof on that. 2020, Biden gained it by a convincing, though not dominant margin. In 2021, for different races like district legal professional and sheriff, Republicans romped. In 2022, Bucks went again to the Democrats. Josh Shapiro did very properly right here for Governor. John Fetterman cleaned up right here for the Senate. However the 1st congressional district, which is dominated by Bucks County, reelected their moderate-sounding Republican, Brian Fitzpatrick.

So there’s nonetheless loads of split-ticket voting round right here. And I ought to be aware, even when individuals are like, “Nevertheless it’s Bucks County, it would not actually have an effect on me.” It might, as a result of, as Bolts just lately did an article in regards to the commissioners in these counties, they’ve loads of jurisdiction over election insurance policies like the place drop bins are, what number of there are, and whether or not mail-in voters get the possibility to right clerical errors. And people are issues that might very properly impression the subsequent presidential election. It is sort of an exaggeration to say Bucks County will decide the subsequent election or something like that. That is by no means the way it works. However what occurs on Tuesday might have implications going into 2024.

Nir: And it is a huge county. It is the fourth-biggest county in Pennsylvania. So whether or not or not it is a bellwether, there’s nonetheless loads of votes at stake there for each events. And yeah, I feel it’s going to positively be a possible battleground in 2024. Even, if I’d digress for a second, on the congressional stage, we have been hammering Brian Fitzpatrick on this present just lately for his votes for Jim Jordan after which for Mike Johnson who’re each opponents of Ukraine funding and it is a very Ukrainian-American space, however we’ll definitely come again to that after November seventh. However the stakes are actually huge right here and that is the sort of election that I really feel people who write about it or speak about it are actually doing an awesome service as a result of these folks truly management necessary components of our lives. And what they do, such as you had been saying Singer, has out-sized results that go far past their county borders. So positively regulate Bucks County to see whether or not Democrats retain their 2-1 majority on Tuesday night time.

Beard: Now, let’s go all the way in which over to the opposite aspect of the state, to Allegheny County, the house of Pittsburgh. They have a few actually aggressive countywide races there. Let’s first speak in regards to the District Legal professional’s race.

Singer: Yeah, so this can be a rematch from just some months in the past. There is a long-time prosecutor, Stephen Zappala. He is been district legal professional for 25 years. Very removed from a felony justice reformer. And in Might, the previous county chief public defender, Matt Dugan, gained a decisive victory over Zappala within the Democratic Main. In most states, that might be the top of it. Dugan can be the nominee and Republicans would not have a lot of an opportunity in a county that Biden gained with near 60% of the votes. However Pennsylvania’s a little bit difficult. Zappala noticed which means the wind was going and he wished a backup alternative. And so the Republicans, of their main, did not area any candidates. He, with Republican assist, runs as a write-in candidate, will get sufficient write-in votes to be the Republican nominee, and so Zappala is again for the overall election.

And he says he is nonetheless a Democrat, however he is working a really, very, very Republican marketing campaign. He is been working just about the kind of advertisements you’d anticipate the place you see footage of cities burning and rioters looting issues and he says, “This can be coming to you if Matt Dugan wins.” And Dugan’s taken a distinct strategy. He ran this beautiful cute advert the place he went as much as folks and stated, “Oh, completely satisfied birthday. Do not get together too onerous.” And tells a lady on her scooter, “Simply be secure.” He simply says, “I wish to preserve folks secure.” And a really totally different impression from the “metropolis’s burning” mentality we get from Zappala. However Dugan’s additionally gone on the assault. He is run advertisements saying Zappala’s too near the gun foyer. He is gone after him on how he is prosecuted instances.

That is one the place I have never actually seen a lot polling. There’s been speak of issues being shut, however nobody’s actually launched something. Nevertheless it’s a county that Biden gained with 60% of the vote, which supplies Dugan a giant flooring. However Zappala’s a really memorable title. He is been round a very long time. His household’s influential. He has gained a number of races as a Democrat. He is hoping to get sufficient crossover assist to win. We’ll see what occurs.

Beard: And I simply wish to say, you possibly can say all you need, “Oh, I am nonetheless a Democrat,” however a part of being a Democrat means accepting the outcomes of the Democratic main and supporting…

Nir: Sure. Thanks.

Beard: … the Democratic nominee, whoever that particular person could also be. It isn’t having a backup possibility for the opposition get together after which taking their nomination and being like, “Oh, don’t be concerned about it. I am nonetheless a Dem. You might even see an R subsequent to my title, and perhaps because of Republican voters that I am right here, however don’t be concerned, I am nonetheless a Dem.” That is not how elections work. So I can be watching this race carefully and hoping that Dugan wipes the ground with him.

Nir: However we’ve got seen conditions like this the place an incumbent loses in a Democratic main to somebody who’s working to their left, which is clearly the setup right here, after which by some means manages to come back again within the common election. And the instance I am pondering of from not all that way back was within the Buffalo Mayor’s race, Buffalo, New York, the place the incumbent mayor appeared like his profession was toast after dropping the Main after which he gained a write-in marketing campaign within the common election for one more time period. That was clearly a considerably totally different set of circumstances right here. The incumbent in that race was not embracing the Republican label, however clearly, you are on the lookout for Republican votes in a scenario like that. So yeah, Allegheny County, as you stated, it is blue turf, however positively, we will not take it as a foregone conclusion {that a} stunt like this may not work.

Singer: Yeah, precisely. And not less than Zappala did not type a Pennsylvania for Zappala Get together, like some former Connecticut senator who did one thing like this that we might consider.

Beard: Do not carry again nightmares.

Nir: However hey, Chris Murphy, superior senator now. So it labored out loads higher for us than it did for Joe Lieberman.

Beard: So there’s one different race we wished to cowl in Allegheny County. That is the chief race for the county. Inform us about that race.

Singer: That is the race to guide Allegheny County, and in contrast to in Bucks County, this can be a direct race. You vote for or towards the particular person working to be government, and Democrats have managed this workplace, not fairly because it was created within the ’90s, however near it. The Democratic incumbent Wealthy Fitzgerald’s termed out, and within the Democratic Main again in Might, former state Consultant Sara Innamorato campaigned as an ardent progressive. She gained. It was a giant signal that politics in and round Pittsburgh are persevering with to favor progressives. However Republicans are placing up a combat right here. Their candidate, businessman Joe Rockey, has had an enormous promoting benefit. It’s extremely, very lopsided, and he is been working all types of advertisements saying, “I am a reasonable, and Innamorato, she’s means too far-left.”

And Innamorato, she’s been combating again. She’s been tying Rockey to nationwide Republicans like Trump, people who find themselves poisonous in areas like this. However the useful resource hole is a giant drawback. So we’ll must see how this one goes. That is one other one the place there’s been speak about shut polls, however nobody has truly launched them, which angers us as polling analysts once we cannot truly see the true issues past speak of margins. However this one is value watching and we’ll be protecting a detailed look on it on election night time, positively.

Nir: Generally the names of those Pennsylvania candidates are just a bit too good. Yeah, yeah. I understand it is on the opposite aspect of the state, however this man’s title is Rockey? I imply, come on. I’ve

Beard: Seen folks vote for worse causes, so let’s not hope too many Pittsburgh voters are like, “Hey, let’s vote for Rockey.”

Nir: Oh my God. Or perhaps they’re like, “Oh, that son of a bitch Rocky Balboa’s from Philly, so fuck him.” Proper? That is what we’ve got to hope for.

Singer: Little Difficulty 1, Difficulty 1 confusion.

Nir: We’ll wrap up with one final county government race in my house state. Although, I’ve to say, geographically and culturally, not my hometown of New York Metropolis; we’re speaking about Suffolk County out on jap Lengthy Island. And there we even have a Democratic county government who’s termed out and a aggressive race to interchange him.

Singer: So that is an space that’s very populous, 1.5 million folks, and in contrast to loads of suburban areas, it didn’t simply swing left with Trump. It has been aggressive. Trump in 2020 gained it by 232 votes, largest county within the nation he carried, even when it was by a tiny quantity. And the previous couple of years although, issues have been actually tough there for Democrats; Republicans actually, actually, actually like working on crime and saying Democrats are delicate on crime. And in 2021, and 2022, it very a lot labored. Republicans simply actually cleaned up right here in nearly each election that they may, and Democrats actually wish to show that, no, we are able to push again. That was short-term. We will message on this. We don’t want to simply take this mendacity down. The Democratic candidate is a businessman and former prosecutor, Dave Calone. He is been working advertisements about how “I am a former prosecutor. I am good on crime.”

The Republican candidate is the city Supervisor of Brookhaven, Ed Romaine, and he has police unions on his aspect. He actually, actually needs to maintain going with the playbook that is labored for his get together the previous couple of years. So, not like in Bucks County, this is not actually a battleground in a swing state, however Suffolk does have two congressional districts that each events are going to be watching in 2024. So they’ll be on the lookout for clues. Nassau County, simply subsequent door, its politics went the identical means the previous couple of years. It is extra blue, but in addition it is house to some necessary congressional districts, together with one which’s represented by Mr. George Santos. That is one which we’ll be watching to see if voters on Lengthy Island are extra receptive to Democratic advertisements than they’ve been the previous couple of years or whether or not Republicans can simply preserve shouting crime and have issues occur.

Nir: It is humorous, I truly know Dave Calone. He and I labored collectively on Eliot Spitzer’s marketing campaign for Legal professional Basic all the way in which again in 1998. So we’re speaking a quarter-century in the past, and it is simply at all times a hell of a factor when somebody you truly know personally is working for workplace. It is wild to be speaking about somebody I as soon as shared a desk with.

Beard: Yeah, I assume that is what occurs when lots of people work on campaigns once you’re very younger. A few of them grew as much as be politicians. Who knew?

Nir: Properly, Jeff Singer, thanks a lot for approaching to preview all these races. “Downballot” listeners, on Tuesday night time, head over to elections.dailykos.com for our liveblog of all of those races and plenty of, many extra. We may even be masking the outcomes blow-by-blow on Twitter. That is @DKElections. We’ll be publishing some guides to all the key races earlier than election night time. Additionally arising is our annual elections contest, which as soon as once more is sponsored by our great buddies at Inexperienced’s Bakery. The prize goes to be scrumptious babka, as at all times, for the winner. So preserve a lookout on our Twitter feed or within the Morning Digest E-newsletter. Go to dailykos.com/morningdigest to enroll. If by some means you have not but, we have got loads of goodies coming for you between now and Election Day and hoping to have a good time one other good election night time. Jeff, thanks a lot for approaching “The Downballot” to share your knowledge with us.

Singer: Thanks. And as retiring Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer is fond of claiming, “Vote Earl. Vote usually.”

Nir: Adore it.

Beard: That is all from us this week. Due to Jeff Singer for becoming a member of us. “The Downballot” comes out each Thursday all over the place you take heed to podcasts. You may attain out to us by emailing the downballot@dailykos.com. If you have not already, please subscribe to the Downballot on Apple Podcasts and depart us a five-star score and evaluate. Due to our editor, Trever Jones, and we’ll be again subsequent week with a brand new episode.