Nikki Haley May Problem Trump in 2024. Different Republicans Aren’t So Keen.

Elevated uncertainty is rippling by means of the Republican Social gathering over methods to beat Donald J. Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination, as an array of the social gathering’s high figures transfer slowly towards difficult the politically wounded but resilient former president.

Contenders have to date been unwilling to formally bounce into the race, cautious of turning into a sacrificial lamb on Mr. Trump’s altar of devastating nicknames and everlasting fury. Some are ready to see if prosecutors in Georgia or New York will do the heavy lifting for them and cost Mr. Trump with crimes associated to his election meddling after the 2020 contest or hush-money funds to a porn star in the course of the 2016 marketing campaign. And the sitting governors weighing a 2024 marketing campaign, together with Ron DeSantis of Florida, are vying to attain legislative victories they will use to introduce themselves to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The primary entrant in opposition to Mr. Trump is perhaps former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who served as United Nations ambassador underneath the previous president and is about to announce her candidacy on Feb. 15, in keeping with an individual conversant in the plans. And this week, former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland mentioned for the primary time that he was “actively and significantly contemplating” operating.

However different potential challengers have extra quietly wavered over when, the place and methods to unleash assaults on Mr. Trump’s candidacy, and to start their very own, after a midterm election through which his endorsements didn’t usher within the purple wave Republicans had anticipated. Republicans who hope to cease him fear that dithering by doable candidates may solely strengthen Mr. Trump’s place — and will even result in a discipline that’s far smaller and weaker than many within the political world have anticipated.

“There’s a non-Trump lane proper now that’s as extensive because the Trump lane, and there’s nobody in that lane,” Mr. Hogan mentioned in an interview.

The shortage of exercise has included main Republican donors, a variety of whom have moved away from Mr. Trump however, with few exceptions, are preserving their choices open.

However a flood of candidates into the race may additionally assist Mr. Trump. Some Republicans worry a repeat of the first marketing campaign in 2016, when a cluttered discipline allowed Mr. Trump to win with roughly 25 % of assist in a number of contests, a chance that his advisers are hoping for if he faces a very sturdy problem from anybody individual.

The case would-be challengers and their aides make behind the scenes is just not that Mr. Trump’s insurance policies have been incorrect, however that he would lose a rematch with President Biden, who received in 2020 largely by presenting himself as an antidote to Mr. Trump.

Amongst those that have expressed concern is Paul D. Ryan, the previous Republican Home speaker, who has referred to as Mr. Trump a “confirmed loser.” In non-public conversations, Mr. Ryan has advised people who donors and different Republicans want to search out methods to make sure that there should not too many candidates splitting the vote in opposition to Mr. Trump. However what actual strategy they may take is unclear, as is which would-be challengers could be receptive to it.

Mr. Trump has proven indicators of each weak spot and sturdiness. His fund-raising haul within the first weeks of his marketing campaign was comparatively skinny, and members of the Republican Nationwide Committee, lengthy a bastion of pro-Trump sentiment, should not desirous to again a 3rd Trump marketing campaign. A survey this week by The Bulwark, a conservative anti-Trump web site, and the Republican pollster Whit Ayres discovered that almost definitely G.O.P. voters needed somebody apart from Mr. Trump to be the social gathering’s 2024 presidential nominee.

But different latest polls recommend that he stays the Republican front-runner. And the Bulwark survey additionally discovered {that a} staggering 28 % of G.O.P. voters could be keen to again Mr. Trump in an unbiased bid, a determine that may all however guarantee one other 4 years for Democrats within the White Home.

“I feel there are numerous issues which can be nonetheless unsure” in regards to the 2024 main race, mentioned former Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, a former chairman of the Republican Nationwide Committee.

The clearest instance of the combined Republican state of affairs is Ms. Haley, who has lengthy been seen as a possible presidential candidate. She had made contradictory statements about whether or not she would problem Mr. Trump, saying in 2021 that she wouldn’t achieve this. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump posted on his social media website a video of Ms. Haley making that comment, with the taunt that she needed to “comply with her coronary heart, not her honor.”

Ms. Haley’s anticipated entrance to the race this month would give Mr. Trump a challenger within the type of a well-liked former governor from what has traditionally been the primary Southern state to vote within the main cycle — and a state Mr. Trump received decisively within the 2016 main.

“I feel she could possibly be generational change, and I see that’s the lane Nikki’s obtained a shot at,” mentioned Katon Dawson, a former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Social gathering who’s supporting Ms. Haley.

To date, Ms. Haley seems to be treading gingerly round Mr. Trump. He revealed to reporters over the weekend that she had reached out to him to let him know that she would possibly run — and as an alternative of sounding offended, he sounded virtually delighted on the prospect of getting a direct goal, and a extra crowded discipline.

Others contemplating a marketing campaign embrace former Vice President Mike Pence, who has expressed disapproval of Mr. Trump’s efforts to make use of him to overturn the 2020 election whereas avoiding most criticism of his onetime ally. Mr. Pence has been constructing a marketing campaign equipment, together with poaching a employees member from Ms. Haley, however he’s not anticipated to make a ultimate resolution on operating till later this 12 months.

One other potential Trump rival, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has averted going instantly after his former boss. He has set his sights decrease, utilizing his latest ebook to assault Ms. Haley and John R. Bolton, a former nationwide safety adviser underneath Mr. Trump who can be contemplating a candidacy.

The individual Mr. Trump is most acutely involved about is Mr. DeSantis, whose advisers in Tallahassee are planning for the state’s coming legislative session with a watch on a possible presidential bid.

The Florida governor, who has a ebook set to be printed this month, has been selling insurance policies that would translate into applause strains for the Republican main base, together with a proposed “anti-woke” overhaul of the state’s schooling system and a possible new legislation letting residents carry firearms with no allow. One change that Mr. DeSantis would virtually actually want from a pleasant Republican supermajority within the Legislature: loosening a state legislation that requires state elected officers in Florida to resign earlier than operating for federal workplace.

But whereas Mr. DeSantis has attracted curiosity in early main states, he has a small, insular group, which has involved some donors and activists. And his lack of a presence in these states has led to questions amongst activists in locations like Iowa and South Carolina about whether or not he dangers squandering an opportunity to consolidate assist if he waits previous spring.

Mr. Ayres, the Republican pollster, mentioned that “there’s no query there’s a gap” to run in opposition to Mr. Trump.

“In a multicandidate discipline, he has a lock someplace round 28 to 30 %, and that could be a very good portion of the social gathering,” Mr. Ayres mentioned. “And they’re very, very dedicated to him. But when he doesn’t get greater than that, in a narrowing discipline or a small discipline, he’s going to have a tough time profitable the nomination.”

Senator Tim Scott, one of many social gathering’s most distinguished Black politicians, is one other South Carolinian contemplating a marketing campaign. He has proved to be one of the prodigious Republican fund-raisers, accumulating $51 million for his re-election marketing campaign final 12 months.

Mr. Scott additionally laid the groundwork for a nationwide marketing campaign by spending $21 million serving to elect Republicans within the 2022 midterms. He endorsed 77 candidates final 12 months and took part in 67 marketing campaign occasions in 21 states, an adviser mentioned.

This month, Mr. Scott will journey to Iowa, the place he’ll communicate at a fund-raiser for the Republican Social gathering of Polk County, and he’s starting a “Religion in America” listening tour, together with speeches in his house state and Iowa.

Some potential candidates have taken on Mr. Trump extra instantly. Former Consultant Liz Cheney of Wyoming, who misplaced her main for re-election after serving to lead the Home committee investigating the previous president’s function within the Capitol riot, is alleged to be contemplating a marketing campaign, in addition to presumably writing a ebook. Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey has been one of the vocal Republicans in calling for the social gathering to discover a new chief.

And Mr. Hogan has spent the 2 weeks since he left workplace talking with political advisers and donors about operating for president. In an interview on Wednesday, he forged the sphere as one Trump-aligned determine after one other aiming to guide a celebration he mentioned should transfer past the previous president so as to win the final election.

“Perhaps a crowded discipline is sweet, with Trump and DeSantis combating with one another and with six or eight different Trump individuals,” Mr. Hogan mentioned. “It’d create extra of a possibility for any person like me.”

Mr. Hogan is just not the one Republican with out clear Trump ties, nevertheless.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia has achieved little to burnish his nationwide profile or put together for a presidential bid for the reason that midterm elections, when he was a uncommon Republican welcomed as a surrogate by each moderates and the social gathering’s far proper. Again then, he advised some Republican allies that he noticed a gap if the presidential discipline was not particularly crowded.

Virginia’s legislative session, which runs by means of the tip of February, offers Mr. Youngkin — because it does Mr. DeSantis and Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire — a purpose to place off transferring ahead with presidential planning.