Paraguay Picks a New President: What You Must Know

Paraguay, the landlocked nation of seven million folks within the middle of South America, picks a brand new president on Sunday. The vote will take a look at the power of Latin America’s leftward shift in recent times.

Opposition challengers have gained the final 16 freely held presidential elections in Latin America, and 6 of the area’s seven largest nations have elected leftist leaders since 2018.

Now it is going to be seen whether or not that development can maintain with Paraguay, maybe South America’s most staunchly conservative nation, because it grapples with deep poverty, a sputtering financial system and entrenched corruption.

The conservative Colorado Celebration is in search of to retain its grip on the nation, which it has managed for all however 5 of the previous 76 years, together with 4 many years of navy dictatorship.

However that dominance now seems in jeopardy. The Colorado incumbent, President Mario Abdo Benítez, can not run once more due to time period limits — and surveys present he’s considered one of Latin America’s most unpopular leaders due to his dealing with of the pandemic. Representing the Colorado Celebration on the polls will likely be Paraguay’s former finance minister.

In January, the U.S. authorities positioned monetary sanctions on the Colorado Celebration’s chief, the previous president Horacio Cartes, accusing him of bribing his strategy to energy. The sanctions have sophisticated the social gathering’s financing.

Some latest polls have proven that the main opposition candidate — a conservative who continues to be to the left of the Colorado Celebration’s contender — holds a slender lead.

The election, which additionally covers congressional, regional and native seats, has featured debate over diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan, guarantees of a jail constructed particularly for corrupt politicians and late momentum for a far-right candidate who has pledged to dissolve Congress and enact navy rule.

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Japanese time on Sunday, with outcomes anticipated inside hours of polls closing. Candidates want a easy majority to be elected.

Right here’s what you want to know.

Who’re the candidates?

The Colorado candidate, Santiago Peña, 44, is Paraguay’s former finance minister, a former Worldwide Financial Fund economist in Washington and the protégé of Mr. Cartes, the ex-president going through sanctions.

Whereas the Colorado Celebration has usually constructed its assist on socially conservative insurance policies, Mr. Peña has pitched himself because the social gathering’s new era, yet another targeted on the financial system. He has promised to create 500,000 jobs, supply free kindergarten, lower gas and power costs and get extra law enforcement officials on the road.

In an interview, he has stated he would pay for these guarantees by increasing the financial system, and thus tax income, by eliminating purple tape.

The main opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, 60, is a conservative lawyer and former congressman who leads a broad coalition of dozens of political events, from the far left to the spiritual proper, which have joined collectively to oust the Colorados. Sunday is his third strive for the nation’s highest workplace. In 2018, he got here inside simply 96,000 votes — or 4 p.c of the overall — from the presidency.

The son of a bus driver and a preacher from rural Paraguay, Mr. Alegre has sought to current himself as an Everyman, promising to eschew the presidential residence if elected.

He has constructed his marketing campaign on a pledge to root out the “mafia” that he has stated controls Paraguay. He additionally has promised to banish corrupt politicians to a brand new jail in an arid, distant area within the north and to pay without cost medicine by recouping what he stated was $2 billion embezzled by the Colorados annually.

“It’s not solely about bringing change, it’s about recovering what was stolen and returning it to the folks,” he stated in an interview on Friday.

Whereas Mr. Peña and Mr. Alegre have led the polls, Paraguayo Cubas, 61, an eccentric anti-corruption firebrand, has gained momentum in latest surveys.

Mr. Cubas is a far-right former senator who was expelled from Congress after bodily grappling with different lawmakers and kicking a police automobile. He had beforehand attracted headlines for whipping a decide together with his belt after which defecating within the decide’s workplace. He has run his marketing campaign primarily on social media, branding Congress as a “cave of bandits” and suggesting he would rule as a dictator.

Analysts are skeptical that Mr. Cubas has a path to the presidency. As a substitute, they stated, he might take votes from Mr. Alegre and hand the Colorado Celebration victory.

Why is a former president such an essential determine?

Mr. Cartes, 66, left the presidency in 2018 however continues to be maybe Paraguay’s strongest man. Along with working the Colorado Celebration, he has monetary pursuits in cigarette factories, banks, pharmacies, TV channels, newspapers and a soccer membership.

In January, the U.S. Treasury Division barred him and his firms from the U.S. monetary system, claiming he had ties to the Lebanese Islamist militant group Hezbollah and had doled out thousands and thousands of {dollars} to cement his management over authorities. Mr. Cartes has denied the allegations.

The monetary sanctions made it harder for the Colorado Celebration to boost cash and posed a political dilemma for Mr. Peña.

In an interview, Mr. Peña stated the allegations have been Mr. Cartes’s “private accountability” and never reflective of the social gathering or him. “I’m my very own particular person,” he stated. The 2 males nonetheless appeared onstage collectively this previous week.

Mr. Alegre has seized on the allegations in opposition to Mr. Cartes, calling him the “Paraguayan Pablo Escobar.”

What are the opposite points?

Crime: Paraguay, which has lengthy been a haven for drug traffickers, has been shaken by a string of high-profile murders. In a single case, a federal prosecutor investigating drug cartels was shot useless by jet-ski-riding assassins whereas on his honeymoon, subsequent to his pregnant spouse on a Colombian seashore.

The financial system: Paraguay was one of many Latin American nations most devastated by the pandemic, and its financial system shrank final 12 months. 1 / 4 of the inhabitants lives in poverty, many roads are nonetheless unpaved and hospitals are brief on primary medicines. Tax charges are among the many lowest within the area.

Taiwan: Paraguay is a part of a fast-shrinking membership of 13 nations, principally small island nations, that keep relations with Taiwan reasonably than China. The Paraguay-Taiwan friendship — inked by their dictators in 1957 — stays robust. Taiwan paid for Paraguay’s modernist congressional constructing and supplied its presidential jet. However Paraguay’s farmers face obstacles in exporting soybeans and beef to China consequently. Mr. Alegre has stated he’ll re-examine the connection, which might upset U.S. officers. Mr. Peña has pledged to maintain the established order.

The dam: Whoever dons the presidential sash on Aug. 15 can even need to deal with a pivotal negotiation over Itaipú, a colossal hydroelectric dam shared with Brazil. Per a 1973 treaty, Paraguay sells its spare power from the dam to Brazil at rock-bottom costs. However the treaty elapses in August, opening the door to a transformational deal for the poorer nation.

What’s the state of the race?

Polls present a neck-and-neck race between Mr. Peña and Mr. Alegre, with every candidate main some surveys. (Paraguayan pollsters have traditionally been inaccurate. In 2018, polls wildly overestimated the assist for the Colorado candidate.)

AtlasIntel, a Brazilian pollster, stated that based on a latest on-line ballot of two,320 Paraguayans, Mr. Alegre led with 34 p.c, Mr. Peña had 33 p.c and Mr. Cubas had 23 p.c. The margin of error was two share factors. The ballot’s largest shock was the extent of assist for Mr. Cubas.

In interviews within the capital, Asunción, on Friday, Paraguayans stated they have been pissed off with corruption and the route of the nation, however they differed about who was the correct particular person to alter it.

Juana Salinas, 74, was ready for the bus outdoors a market, with a black cane and a trash bag stuffed with meals containers on the market. She stated she supported Mr. Peña as a result of she had all the time voted Colorado, like her deceased dad and mom. “At all times, as a result of I’m not going to dishonor my father and mom,” she stated. “My father is Colorado, my mom is Colorado.”

Contained in the market, Cynthia Acosta, 29, was bagging dried corn kernels, which prospects usually use to make chipa guasú, or Paraguayan cornbread. She stated she deliberate to vote for Mr. Alegre as soon as once more, as a result of she favored his plans to create jobs for younger folks.

“There are quite a lot of issues that want to alter,” she stated. “It’s not a simple job for anybody.”