The pound is on observe for its longest dropping run since early within the Covid-19 pandemic, as Metropolis merchants dial down their forecast for UK rate of interest rises.
Sterling is down 1 / 4 of a cent in the present day at $1.281, its lowest stage in a fortnight.
That is its seventh each day drop in a row, as merchants digest this morning’s warning that UK personal sector progress is weakening this month.
That’s the worst run since March 2020, when the pound fell for eight consecutive periods.
The selloff displays rising expectations that UK rates of interest won’t rise as quick as beforehand feared, because the financial system slows and inflation drops.
The pound had surged to a 15-month excessive of round $1.314 on thirteenth July, after rising by six days in a row (the perfect run of 2023), however the temper has turned in opposition to the pound since.
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doc.physique.appendChild(el);n “,”elementId”:”940b4ce7-dc9c-49d0-9bfc-482a8e9af996″},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Spain is in for weeks of negotiating and horse-trading because the rival camps discover their choices for presidency.</p>”,”elementId”:”da8b233c-797d-4616-924f-5e106836d72c”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>My colleague in <robust>Madrid</robust>, <robust>Sam</robust> <robust>Jones</robust>, explains:</p>”,”elementId”:”adc69fe7-0581-409c-81ac-40a1f63cf59a”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”quoted”>n <p>Negotiations by the 2 blocs to type governments will begin after a brand new parliament convenes on 17 August. King Felipe VI will invite the PP’s chief, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to attempt to safe the prime ministership. In the same state of affairs in 2015, PP chief Mariano Rajoy declined the king’s invitation, saying he couldn’t muster the help.</p>n <p>If Feijoo declines, the king might flip to the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, with the identical request. The regulation doesn’t set a deadline for the method but when no candidate secures a majority inside two months of the primary vote on the prime minister, new elections should be held.</p>n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”343a7c8b-1676-468a-bdad-cc097cdd92cb”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/spainish-election-conservative-party-ahead-but-unlikely-to-win-majority”,”textual content”:”Spain elections: hung parliament after conservatives fail to safe anticipated majority”,”prefix”:”Associated: “,”function”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”85eb2bb8-0383-4808-bb99-7cfcc9dd1c7b”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1690186504000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.15 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1690194713000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”06.31 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1690187203000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.26 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.26″,”title”:”Spain’s IBEX drops after basic election impasse”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Jul 2023 08.28 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Mon 24 Jul 2023 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”64be235b8f08ff360bcb3b56″,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>In the City, shares in <strong>Ocado</strong> have jumped by over 11% to their highest level since January, after it reached a deal with Norwegian robotics firm AutoStore over patent litigation claims.</p>”,”elementId”:”b8e08236-4a2f-4284-b88f-b900071a7a22″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Under the deal, announced last weekend, <strong>AutoStore</strong> will pay £200m to <strong>Ocado</strong>.</p>”,”elementId”:”72e17f7b-49d6-46a5-a6a7-42ad40afd21f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>They will also have “complete freedom” to access and use technology covered by each other’s pre-2020 patents, and can continue to use and market their own existing products without risk of infringing each other’s post-2020 patents.</p>”,”elementId”:”5aab005a-3054-4633-849e-a43a707ad434″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>This litigation has hung over Ocado since October 2020, when Autostore filed a case arguing the UK firm had infringed six of its patents relating to its use of robots to retrieve goods from warehouses.</p>”,”elementId”:”58afc376-1051-4da3-afe9-da4c06fe6c06″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Today, <strong>Ocado</strong> CEO <strong>Tim Steiner</strong> says:</p>”,”elementId”:”44f70bc9-213b-4e8a-a674-ba9bcea816ca”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”quoted”>n <p>“I am pleased that we have worked together to resolve our differences and can now continue to focus on what we do best – innovating, developing and enabling partners to access world beating technology”</p>n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”eee307e4-1a61-4e4d-bff1-5e34bfb4a13f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1690182491000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.08 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1690183218000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.20 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1690183219000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.20 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.20″,”title”:”Ocado shares surge after patent litigation deal”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Jul 2023 08.28 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Mon 24 Jul 2023 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”64be1f6b8f087edb1f3f0be4″,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Some <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/technology/twitter” data-component=”auto-linked-tag”>Twitter</a> users are unimpressed by the X rebrand, and mourning the old blue bird logo (although it’s still displayed at the top of the Twitter homepage at pixel time).</p>”,”elementId”:”9f57b4b8-b55f-4abf-8d24-c4d890ef8a15″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>As I log off for the night I just wanted to say goodbye to the twitter bird. <br><br>We will miss you 😢 <br><br>X= WTF?<a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIPTwitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#RIPTwitter</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TwitterIsDead?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TwitterIsDead</a> <a href=”https://t.co/cKEjPHTKja”>pic.twitter.com/cKEjPHTKja</a></p>— Sunsun Girly☀️ (@sunsungirly) <a href=”https://twitter.com/sunsungirly/status/1683356495029882880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 24, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/sunsungirly/status/1683356495029882880″,”id”:”1683356495029882880″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”47a9e5fb-0de7-4ad5-8d16-ea85eebe3ada”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-conversation=”none”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Check it out:<a href=”https://t.co/TWSnSPhVBr”>https://t.co/TWSnSPhVBr</a> has been replaced by <a href=”https://t.co/0v0hrwOSZX”>https://t.co/0v0hrwOSZX</a><br>The blue Bird is dead and buried. <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIP?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#RIP</a> Twitter🪦 and good luck to <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TwitterX?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TwitterX</a> ❌ <a href=”https://t.co/9cxqdfkZOu”>pic.twitter.com/9cxqdfkZOu</a></p>— Kite🪁 (@MayMayln) <a href=”https://twitter.com/MayMayln/status/1683194165427941377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 23, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/MayMayln/status/1683194165427941377″,”id”:”1683194165427941377″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”04f5fbd7-6c45-4d03-bd03-e5ecccd9936e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>RIP Twitter Bird (2006-2023) <br>Everyone waiting for funeral be like 😅<a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TwitterX?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TwitterX</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TwitterLogo?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TwitterLogo</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/ElonMusk?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#ElonMusk</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIPTwitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#RIPTwitter</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/Twitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#Twitter</a> <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TwitterBird?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TwitterBird</a> <a href=”https://t.co/iMncU9pWhL”>pic.twitter.com/iMncU9pWhL</a></p>— Sourabh Bari Jhunjhunwala (@thesourabhbari) <a href=”https://twitter.com/thesourabhbari/status/1683368192478171136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 24, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/thesourabhbari/status/1683368192478171136″,”id”:”1683368192478171136″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e5cb5de1-3ae4-4d1d-a389-b195f264fc3d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>There have also been some rather pointed suggestions for the new logo, reflecting concerns about Twitter’s viability or <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/03/twitter-conservative-media-elon-musk-ron-desantis”>its political leanings,</a> which didn’t make the cut:</p>”,”elementId”:”4fa62ef2-a54e-464b-8c77-b6db19f8521b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”zxx” dir=”ltr”><a href=”https://t.co/Y4INyz4ziG”>https://t.co/Y4INyz4ziG</a> <a href=”https://t.co/ffYOkrE7A2″>pic.twitter.com/ffYOkrE7A2</a></p>— Ivan the K™ (@IvanTheK) <a href=”https://twitter.com/IvanTheK/status/1683177583091875840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 23, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/IvanTheK/status/1683177583091875840″,”id”:”1683177583091875840″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”1f5f62ed-5d01-43f3-b8d1-389caa05a41d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>lmao holy shit <a href=”https://t.co/WG8puqhyzU”>pic.twitter.com/WG8puqhyzU</a></p>— Adam Cerious (@Browtweaten) <a href=”https://twitter.com/Browtweaten/status/1683213576117403652?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 23, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/Browtweaten/status/1683213576117403652″,”id”:”1683213576117403652″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”9e82426e-7384-438c-8435-7f018accedbc”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1690181483000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.51 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1690182279000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.04 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1690182217000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.03 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.03″,”title”:”Twitter customers react”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Jul 2023 08.28 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Mon 24 Jul 2023 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”64be15448f087edb1f3f0b93″,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Twitter appears to have changed its logo, ditching its signature blue bird in favour of a stylised X.</strong></p>”,”elementId”:”7b4cc2dc-e042-4932-819e-1fd11cfccb81″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Chief executive Linda Yaccarino has just tweeted the new logo, a day after owner Elon Musk <a href=”https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682965462886535168″ title=”Musk tweet”>invited</a> his 149 million followers to suggest an X logo, and said the company would switch if a “good enough X logo” were posted.</p>”,”elementId”:”e9f10488-cac2-43ac-a7d7-e5aebcd145ef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Musk also indicated that the logo would probably be changed in future, and “certainly will be refined”.</p>”,”elementId”:”8086968f-f80a-4cba-9b5a-e71b80a84406″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Elon Musk has changed his profile picture to the new logo of X <a href=”https://t.co/5Q0kTvvVXo”>pic.twitter.com/5Q0kTvvVXo</a></p>— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) <a href=”https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1683327793235636226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 24, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1683327793235636226″,”id”:”1683327793235636226″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”976e406e-b5c1-481e-b74d-6d029a8e9cc6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The move to X is part of Musk’s push to transform Twitter, which he bought for $44bn last year, into an everything app.</p>”,”elementId”:”70353ec9-9a84-4454-82c7-aa05a8046ff7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>And here is the new logo – described by Musk as “minimalist art deco”:</p>”,”elementId”:”cb6d5fe5-6889-440f-91f1-c9d4ea36118d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>X is here! Let’s do this. <a href=”https://t.co/1VqEPlLchj”>pic.twitter.com/1VqEPlLchj</a></p>— Linda Yaccarino (@lindayacc) <a href=”https://twitter.com/lindayacc/status/1683353772917940225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 24, 2023</a></blockquote>”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/lindayacc/status/1683353772917940225″,”id”:”1683353772917940225″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”c677fe09-d6cd-4ac2-a7d5-6b2fdf75dc1c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Musk’s rebranding of Twitter as X comes as he struggles to attract advertising and faces increased competition following the launch of Meta’s Threads platform.</p>”,”elementId”:”8badf866-6e20-4b01-ad23-4e594f5c5662″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Since buying Twitter, he has slashed the workforce and cut costs, and tried to cajole users into paying $8 per month for Twitter Blue.</p>”,”elementId”:”03bbe26a-14c7-4a6c-a268-573e46eaff87″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Twitter’s chief executive, Linda Yaccarino, confirmed the launch of the X brand on Sunday. She tweeted:</p>”,”elementId”:”b5f39c12-8aef-40f6-87e6-901e6c2e78a7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”quoted”>n <p>“It’s an exceptionally rare thing – in life or in business – that you get a second chance to make another big impression. Twitter made one massive impression and changed the way we communicate.</p>n <p>Now, X will go further, transforming the global town square.”</p>n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”36217e34-644f-4bfc-91f4-f3685e037307″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Yaccarino said X would be “centred in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking” and would be a “global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities”. She added: “X will be the platform that can deliver, well … everything.”</p>”,”elementId”:”f6aee756-8655-4e04-842c-0d03ea3aa129″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/23/twitter-elon-musk-says-he-wants-to-change-companys-bird-logo”,”text”:”Elon Musk says Twitter will change logo from bird to an X”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”165f9b9c-6b45-4e55-8aa0-92c523d4d634″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1690180768000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1690184182000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.36 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1690180820000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.40 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.40″,”title”:”Twitter chooses fan-submitted ‘X’ as new emblem”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Jul 2023 08.28 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Mon 24 Jul 2023 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”64bd90598f087edb1f3f0841″,”components”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.</strong></p>”,”elementId”:”c26742a1-be30-4060-9a42-b2a7cd43f176″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Rising interest rates are set to slow the UK economy next year, casting a pall over the country in a likely election year.</p>”,”elementId”:”3d78faad-2c5d-4ec4-bfc0-f257857e45e6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The EY Item Club, the economic forecasting group, has halved its forecast for UK economic growth in 2024 to 0.8%, down from the 1.9% projected in April.</p>”,”elementId”:”cedff032-6aa9-4b6b-a95d-265ce53e3021″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The 2025 GDP growth forecast has also been downgraded, from 2.3% to 1.7%.</p>”,”elementId”:”34ad30a0-06b5-4505-9fc9-3a36c7ceb417″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>These growth downgrades are due to the increase in UK interest rate over the last 20 months, from 0.1% in December 2021 to 5% today.</p>”,”elementId”:”f27b9272-4c35-4b52-83f0-99a0cba2ead4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>EY ITEM Club predict two further interest rate rises from the Bank of England, in August and September, meaning Bank Rate peaks at 5.5%.</p>”,”elementId”:”d5fbac00-a3af-4b21-a64f-ac6bd0a991fd”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>That will further slow growth, and put more pressure on mortgage holders, with over one million households across Britain are expected to lose at least 20% of their disposable incomes to surging mortgage costs.</p>”,”elementId”:”70e5d4ba-7c78-48ba-91bb-e52fd7b037af”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/1-point-4m-uk-households-huge-hit-to-finances-mortgage-timebomb-payments-fifth-disposale-income”,”text”:”1.4m UK mortgage holders face 20% hit to disposable income from rate hikes”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”b8b28aa0-340e-43fe-aaf8-14b50c84eb61″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Martin Beck</strong>, chief economic advisor to the <strong>EY ITEM Club</strong>, says:</p>”,”elementId”:”54cb8425-fd03-4ba8-bdc5-bdbb8edd6ad7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”quoted”>n <p>“The inflation and interest rate outlook is a key risk for the forecast. Should inflation prove more stubborn than expected, the prospect of even more rate rises than we expect will come very much into play. On the other hand, the potential is there for inflation to fall faster than expected, as June’s outturn demonstrated.</p>n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”b2e88357-a3cf-4f2e-b599-faa953869bc6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>But the good news is that the economy remains on course to avoid recession, with the UK economy is expected to grow 0.4% in 2023, up from the 0.2% growth seen three months ago.</p>”,”elementId”:”1d2aa867-95c1-4f49-b4f4-ae1324ac9d11″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.InteractiveBlockElement”,”url”:”https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2023/07/uk-gdplatest130723/giv-13425AhljN07YIJIY”,”alt”:”A graph showing UK economic growth”,”scriptUrl”:”https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js”,”isMandatory”:false,”elementId”:”a4f1913a-2916-4549-bde8-fdbc68d75949″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p><strong>Beck </strong>explains:</p>”,”elementId”:”9bfd403c-47ce-4843-87e1-47f4848d553d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<blockquote class=”quoted”>n <p>“At the moment, the boost from less expensive energy in particular means the EY ITEM Club doesn’t believe recent interest rate rises will push the consumer sector or wider economy into recession. And although the current rate rising cycle doesn’t appear to be over yet, current market expectations for Bank Rate to climb to around 6% seem unlikely to come to pass.</p>n <p>That said, how the Bank of England perceives things will be key and, should it opt for a more hawkish stance, there is a real risk that interest rates could continue to ratchet up to a level where even the protection afforded by healthy household and business balance sheets isn’t enough to prevent a recession. On that count, the next few months – and what they tell us about just how sticky inflation and strong pay growth are – will be crucial.”</p>n</blockquote>”,”elementId”:”c57e33e2-f847-4650-8a09-4295a41e29d7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.InteractiveBlockElement”,”url”:”https://interactive.guim.co.uk/charts/embed/jul/2023-07-19-08:52:01/embed.html”,”alt”:”A graph showing UK inflation”,”scriptUrl”:”https://interactive.guim.co.uk/embed/iframe-wrapper/0.1/boot.js”,”isMandatory”:false,”elementId”:”0d441eae-1670-4d3a-bec8-e114a9e07945″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>The path for economic growth could influence Rishi Sunak’s decision on when to call the next election, with senior <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/politics/conservatives”>Conservatives</a> urging him to go to the polls in the spring.</p>”,”elementId”:”21084f8c-6261-4cf5-9e9a-ceef45a3abac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/rishi-sunak-urged-to-go-for-spring-election-by-senior-conservatives”,”text”:”Rishi Sunak urged to go for spring election by senior Conservatives”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”14d4e9de-0886-484c-8a52-7b84245ee989″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”<h2>Also coming up today</h2>”,”elementId”:”3c259d4e-24b3-4dd1-a48f-4d53f2d0216d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>City minister Andrew Griffith is expected to write to the chief executives of 19 banks, building societies and digital challengers today, to warn them that regulations around politically exposed persons are “being applied in a disproportionate manner by some financial institutions”.</p>”,”elementId”:”f4c873b4-8b22-4250-a11d-a7b093d0fc5c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Griffith will summon bank chiefs for a meeting to discuss how customers can be protected from “being de-banked”, following the row after Coutts cut ties with Nigel Farage.</p>”,”elementId”:”81f92e60-5f9f-4bdb-b25a-1291843020c9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/23/city-minister-summons-uk-bank-bosses-discuss-nigel-farage-account-closure”,”text”:”City minister summons UK bank bosses to discuss Farage account closure”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”5160542c-ea95-4e4c-be78-94a6b28317f4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Travel firms and airlines are being urged to reimburse passengers who decide against flying to Rhodes as the <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/british-tourists-tell-of-nightmare-in-rhodes-fires-greece”>Greek island is ravaged by wildfires</a>. One leading consumer group arguing it would be “unconscionable” to withhold refunds.</p>”,”elementId”:”b46b87ea-26ca-4559-b91a-42c7058285ce”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/23/travel-operators-urged-to-refund-uk-holidaymakers-who-call-off-trips-to-rhodes”,”text”:”Travel operators urged to refund UK holidaymakers who call off trips to Rhodes”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”e2a93855-21af-4d0f-af89-1a4bec83cdd9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>A string of travel companies have <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/british-tourists-tell-of-nightmare-in-rhodes-fires-greece”>cancelled package holidays</a> to Rhodes, and are now scrambling to repatriate thousands of tourists.</p>”,”elementId”:”a29ddd07-af29-4c9f-8b5e-1cd986c9db31″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<p>Greek authorities have issued an evacuation order for parts of Corfu, after wildfires broke out on there too.</p>”,”elementId”:”f3620d74-645d-426e-810c-e2e7dd719fdc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/24/greece-wildfires-corfu-evia-rhodes-heatwave-northern-hemisphere-extreme-weather-temperatures-europe”,”text”:”Greece: wildfires break out on Corfu and Evia as 19,000 flee Rhodes blazes”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”93df6df3-31d1-40b9-8b24-df89aaf99b8a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”<h2>The agenda</h2>”,”elementId”:”6d1019d5-88fb-458c-8fd5-7b095a2f16ba”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<ul>n <li><p>9am BST: Flash estimate of eurozone manufacturing and services sectors in July</p></li>n <li><p>9.30am BST: Flash estimate of UK manufacturing and services sectors in July</p></li>n <li><p>1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed National Activity Index of the US economy</p></li>n <li><p>2.45pm BST: Flash estimate of US manufacturing and services sectors in July</p></li>n</ul>”,”elementId”:”b06b1e49-0d26-4561-ba94-92d48e61399d”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1690180768000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1690180870000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.41 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1690180768000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.39″,”title”:”Introduction: Rate of interest rises to hit UK progress subsequent 12 months”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Jul 2023 08.28 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First printed on Mon 24 Jul 2023 02.39 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”format”:{“show”:0,”theme”:0,”design”:11},”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”}”>
Key occasions
Extra Gatwick strikes suspended as DHL employees win 15% pay rise
Extra Gatwick strikes have been suspended, the Unite union, has simply introduced, easing the specter of vacation disruption this summer time.
Employees employed by DHL have accepted a 15% pay rise and an ‘uplift in expertise pay, which means hourly charges will rise by between 15% and 31%. Plus, employees will get an additional shift premium of £1.25 per hour for work between midnght and 4.59am.
As a outcomes, DHL workers will now not strike from Friday 28 July to Tuesday 1 August, and likewise from Friday 4 August to Tuesday 8 August.
Unite basic secretary SharonGraham mentioned:
“This is a superb end result secured by the steadfast place of our DHL members.
As soon as once more, employees are gaining actual materials advantages from Unite’s absolute give attention to bettering jobs, pay and situations.”
Virtually 1,000 workers who work on baggage dealing with and check-in desks at 4 firms, together with DHL, voted to carry these eight days of strike motion earlier this month.
However the strikes may but be referred to as off, with ASC and Menzies employees at present balloting on improved gives.
If the ASC employees reject the pay provide, they may go forward with strike motion scheduled between 28 July and 1 August in addition to strikes between 4 August and eight August, Unite says.
Strikes by Menzies employees between 28 July and 1 August have been suspended, nonetheless if the provide is rejected, strikes between 4 August and eight August will go forward.
Talks with GGS are “progressing in a constructive route”, Unite provides, which means that strike motion by GGS employees scheduled between 28 July and 1 August has been suspended to permit negotiations to proceed.
Nonetheless, strike motion between 4 August and eight August continues to be scheduled to go forward if a passable final result shouldn’t be reached in time.
Full story: Elon Musk reveals the brand new Twitter emblem X
Dan Milmo
The “X” emblem has lengthy been an obsession of Elon Musk’s and is his title for an “every part app” that he has pledged to launch sooner or later – with Twitter the seemingly car, our world expertise editor Dan Milmo writes.
Shortly earlier than shopping for Twitter in October, Musk described the social media platform as “an accelerant to creating X, the every part app”.
After taking up Twitter in October final 12 months, Musk folded the corporate into an entity referred to as X Corp, whose guardian is X Holdings Corp. This month, the Tesla CEO introduced he was forming a brand new synthetic intelligence firm referred to as xAI.
The outdated blue hen has vanished from the highest of the Twitter home page, changed by the brand new “minimalist artwork deco” X.
There are considerations that Elon Musk is throwing away 15 years of name recognition, by rebranding Twitter as X.
Mike Proulx, Forrester VP analysis director, explains:
“By altering Twitter’s app title, Elon Musk may have singlehandedly worn out over fifteen years of a model title that has secured its place in our cultural lexicon. That is a particularly dangerous transfer as a result of with ‘X,’ Musk is actually beginning over whereas its competitors is afoot.”
The excellent news for Musk is that #TwitterX is trending within the UK this morning.
Much less encouragingly, I’ve additionally seen #RIPTwitter popping up within the developments record too.
Style retailer Matalan has reported a “difficult” first quarter because the cost-of-living squeeze on spending.
The gradual transition to summer time climate additionally weighed on the group’s gross sales, with April’s thundery showers and an unsettled Might deterring folks from shopping for new warm-weather clobber.
Complete revenues on the low-cost clothes and homeware chain fall by 8% to £264m within the three months to Might 27, in comparison with £287m made in the identical interval final 12 months.
Matalan, which has 230 shops throughout the UK and 48 franchised outlets abroad, mentioned it had observed an impression from buyers spending much less on non-essential objects.
Chief government JoWhitfield mentioned:
“The enterprise had a difficult first quarter with value of residing strain leading to depressed client spending in discretionary classes.
“Unseasonal climate delayed a refresh of wardrobes for early spring creating a troublesome begin to the season.”
Eurozone corporations undergo steeper downturn
Firms within the eurozone are additionally having a troublesome July.
Eurozone enterprise output fell on the quickest charge for eight months in July, in response to the most recent HCOB flash PMI survey knowledge produced by S&P World, launched this morning.
The survey confirmed that demand situations worsened throughout the board within the eurozone this month, with new enterprise shrinking on the quickest charge since final November.
The products-producing sector noticed one of many steepest declines in new orders since 2009, whereas companies firms reported the primary downturn in new orders for seven months.
Inflationary pressures moderated, although, with “gathering deflation in manufacturing” and “slower service sector inflation”.
Pound heads for longest run of losses since 2020
The pound is on observe for its longest dropping run since early within the Covid-19 pandemic, as Metropolis merchants dial down their forecast for UK rate of interest rises.
Sterling is down 1 / 4 of a cent in the present day at $1.281, its lowest stage in a fortnight.
That is its seventh each day drop in a row, as merchants digest this morning’s warning that UK personal sector progress is weakening this month.
That’s the worst run since March 2020, when the pound fell for eight consecutive periods.
The selloff displays rising expectations that UK rates of interest won’t rise as quick as beforehand feared, because the financial system slows and inflation drops.
The pound had surged to a 15-month excessive of round $1.314 on thirteenth July, after rising by six days in a row (the perfect run of 2023), however the temper has turned in opposition to the pound since.
UK authorities bond costs are rallying this morning, knocking down the yield (or rate of interest) on British debt.
5-year and 20-year gilt costs have jumped to six-week highs this morning, as this morning’s weak survey of UK buying managers pulls down on expectations for UK rate of interest rises.
The yield on 20-year UK bonds has dropped to 4.38%, down from 4.47% on Friday night time. Bond yields fall when costs rise.
The slowdown throughout UK firms this month bolsters the case for the Financial institution of England to solely increase rates of interest by 1 / 4 of 1 % subsequent week, argues SimonHarvey, head of FX evaluation at Monex Europe.
That will take UK rates of interest to five.25%, up from 5% in the present day.
Harvey says:
All in all, in the present day’s knowledge as soon as once more confirms that the consequences of the BoE’s tightening cycle are actually beginning to have an effect on the true financial system, and with companies exercise cooling particularly, this could present additional justification for the BoE to decelerate its climbing cycle with a 25bp hike in August.
The Cty appears to share this view, with the possibilities of a 50-basis level (half a share level) hike now all the way down to 32% in the present day, having been odds-on earlier this month.
July’s weak PMI studying suggests the UK is affected by “faltering financial resilience”, says Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK.
Pugh factors to knowledge final week displaying a drop in client morale:
The autumn within the flash S&P/CIPS Composite PMI to 50.7 in July, mixed with the drop within the GfK measure of client confidence to -30, means that the financial system is beginning to buckle underneath the burden of the surge in rates of interest and exceptionally excessive inflation.
‘Admittedly, at 50.7 the composite PMI is in keeping with flat GDP progress quite than a contraction. However July was the fourth consecutive fall within the PMI having peaked at 54.9 in April.
What’s extra, the drop was broad based mostly with each the companies (53.0 to 51.5) and manufacturing (46.0 to 45.0) sectors falling. This implies that momentum and resilience within the personal sector is beginning to falter, and it’s not troublesome to see the financial system slipping into recession in early 2024 because the impression of rate of interest hikes proceed to feed by into the true financial system.
Dr John Glen, chief economist at CIPS, agreed that increased rates of interest are hitting UK progress this month (as proven by in the present day’s PMI report).
Dr Glen says:
“Greater borrowing prices are right here to remain and the personal sector is aware of it. Rate of interest hikes aren’t simply affecting new orders in the present day however spending plans lengthy into the longer term.
The most important concern is more and more not if the UK financial system will enter recession however for a way lengthy.
Extra optimistically, although, he sees “the jigsaw items for a supply-led discount in inflation” falling into place:
World provide chains are returning to regular after years of pandemic shortages and rising prices. Shares of unused items constructed as much as assist handle Brexit, the pandemic and most lately world transport disruption are lastly being run down.
Manufacturing enter prices are falling and provider efficiency is bettering on the quickest charge we’ve got ever seen. This renewed provide chain agility, mixed with falling uncooked materials and transportation prices, couldn’t have come at a greater time for enterprise.”
UK financial system ‘near stalling’ in July as excessive rates of interest hit corporations
Newsflash: progress at UK firms has slowed to its lowest stage since January as increased rates of interest gradual the financial system, a brand new survey reveals.
Knowledge agency S&P World Perception repoorts that UK personal sector output rose at its weakest charge for six months in July
Firms reported that enterprise exercise was hit by rising rates of interest, elevated inflation, and extra warning amongst purchasers because of the unsure financial outlook.
That backs up EY ITEM Membership’s warning this morning that increased borrowing prices weigh on progress (see opening put up).
Development slowed at service sector firms, whereas manufacturing output shrank on the quickest charge since final December.
This pullsed S&P’s flash PMI Composite Output Index all the way down to 50.7 for July, down from June’s 52.8, and a 6-month low. Any studying over 50 reveals progress.
A number of service sector corporations blammed weaker residential property market situations for weakening demand, whereas others cited cutbacks to discretionary enterprise and client spending.
Producers lower their costs for the second month working, as they benefitted from a giant enchancment in suppliers’ supply instances and falling value pressures.
Chris Williamson, chief enterprise economist at S&P World Market Intelligence, says rising rates of interest are taking their toll on the financial system.
“The UK financial system has come near stalling in July which, mixed with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries.
July’s flash PMI survey knowledge revealed a deepening manufacturing downturn accompanied by an extra cooling of the latest resurgence of progress within the service sector.
Rising rates of interest and the upper value of residing look like taking an elevated toll on households, dampening a post-pandemic rebound in spending on leisure actions.
In the meantime, producers are reducing manufacturing in response to a worryingly extreme downturn in orders, each from home and export markets.
“Ahead-looking indicators, resembling order e-book inflows, ranges of work-in-hand and future enterprise expectations, all level to progress weakening additional within the months forward, including to a threat of GDP falling within the third quarter.
Two-year mounted mortgage charges rise
UK short-term mortgage charges have risen a bit increased in the present day, regardless of final week’s fall in inflation.
Monetary knowledge offered Moneyfacts studies that the typical 2-year mounted residential mortgage charge has risen to six.81%, up from 6.80% on Friday.
However the common 5-year mounted residential mortgage charge was unchanged at 6.32%.
Final week, the typical charge on each varieties of mortgage fell for the primary time since Might, after the larger-than-expected fall in UK inflation to 7.9% in June.
The cash markets at present anticipate Financial institution of England base charge to peak at 5.75% subsequent spring, down from forecasts of a peak of 6.5% earlier this month.
Financial savings charges have crept a bit increased in the present day, Moneyfacts says:
The typical 1-year mounted financial savings charge in the present day is 5.15%. That is up from a median charge of 5.14% on the earlier working day.
The typical quick access financial savings charge in the present day is 2.73%. That is up from a median charge of two.70% on the earlier working day.
The typical 1-year mounted Money ISA charge in the present day is 4.90%. That is up from a median charge of 4.89% on the earlier working day.
The typical quick access ISA charge in the present day is 2.83%. That is up from a median charge of two.78% on the earlier working day.
Spain’s IBEX drops after basic election impasse
Spain’s inventory market has dropped by over 1% this morning, after final weekend’s basic election left the nation in political impasse.
Neither the left or right-wing political events seem to have a transparent path to energy.
Spain’s opposition conservative social gathering, the Individuals’sGet together (or PP) secured essentially the most variety of seats, with 136, adopted by the incumbent Spanish Socialist Employees’ social gathering (or PSOE) with 122.
The far-right Vox social gathering took 33 seats – effectively down on the 52 they picked up within the final election – whereas the brand new, far-left Sumar alliance have been in fourth place with 31 seats.
Spain is in for weeks of negotiating and horse-trading because the rival camps discover their choices for presidency.
My colleague in Madrid, SamJones, explains:
Negotiations by the 2 blocs to type governments will begin after a brand new parliament convenes on 17 August. King Felipe VI will invite the PP’s chief, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to attempt to safe the prime ministership. In the same state of affairs in 2015, PP chief Mariano Rajoy declined the king’s invitation, saying he couldn’t muster the help.
If Feijoo declines, the king might flip to the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, with the identical request. The regulation doesn’t set a deadline for the method but when no candidate secures a majority inside two months of the primary vote on the prime minister, new elections should be held.