Reform UK’s hopes of stealing working-class Labour voters away from Sir Keir Starmer’s camp on the subsequent basic election has been met with scepticism from main pollsters, The Unbiased can reveal.
The rebranded Brexit get together, led by Richard Tice and co-founded by Nigel Farage, has labelled itself “the get together of the working class”, declaring it’s now the true residence of Labour supporters.
However Britain’s high pollster, Sir John Curtice, has poured chilly water on the claims, predicting that its prospects in Labour heartlands stay slim.
The latest by-elections noticed Reform make a big dent within the Conservative vote – taking a 3rd of the general vote share in each Wellingborough and Kingswood.
However the get together has not but confirmed that it may possibly land a blow on Labour. In Wellingborough, regardless of Reform receiving 13 per cent of the vote share, Labour nonetheless overturned a Conservative stronghold with the biggest by-election swing since 1994 and a majority of 6,436 votes.
Sir John, who’s professor of politics at Strathclyde College, informed The Unbiased the essential issue that distinguishes those that change to Reform is that “they nonetheless imagine in Brexit”.
Though he conceded that Labour’s vote shouldn’t be “wholly invulnerable” to the ex-Brexit get together, that vulnerability is “restricted” as a result of round three-quarters of Labour’s vote stems from individuals who “need to be contained in the European Union”.
Sir John mentioned: “If you happen to’re discontenting of the Tories and you modify your thoughts about Brexit, then you definately are likely to go to Labour. If, nevertheless, you’re discontented with the Tories however you’re nonetheless a Brexit believer, you have a tendency to modify to Reform.”
Mr Tice has constructed the get together as a populist right-wing different to the Conservatives, campaigning for closed borders, decrease taxes and a rollback of internet zero targets. Reform has additionally claimed that the get together is at the moment delivering “section one” of its undertaking, which is “destroying the Conservative Get together”, and can subsequent change into a reputable different to Labour.
Sir Keir, in the meantime, is trying to make sure the working-class vote by placing Labour’s New Deal for Employees – a sequence of reforms aimed toward strengthening employee’s rights within the UK – entrance and centre of his marketing campaign, whereas additionally pledging to take a more durable strategy to regulation, order and immigration.
Labour are at the moment polling 12 factors forward of the Conservatives as voters of all demographics abandon the Tories after fourteen turbulent years in authorities.
Mr Tice has warned the nation faces “Starmergeddon” if it elects Labour, stating that “solely Reform UK is now the get together of the working class, who will cease mass immigration, who will scrap internet zero, who will assist clear up the price of dwelling disaster.”
Whereas pollsters say Reform is nibbling away at a sure piece of the 2019 Conservative vote, characterised by working-class voters in conventional Labour heartlands who voted overwhelmingly for Boris Johnson and who turned referred to as the pink wall, they refute the get together’s possibilities of damaging Labour.
Scarlett Maguire, director at polling and political analysis firm JL companions, acknowledged that whereas Reform are “pulling away about 21 per cent or so of people that voted Conservative in 2019”, the get together is “simply not pulling away Labour voters in the identical method.”
Ms Maguire added that within the analysis carried out by her firm recommended “69 per cent of present Reform voters voted Conservative in 2019, whereas simply 4 per cent voted Labour”.
Clacton-on-Sea – the seat that former Brexit get together chief Nigel Farage is rumoured to be contemplating ought to he run as a Reform candidate – is barely polling at 18 per cent – inviting scepticism in regards to the get together’s prospects in Westminster.
Conservative peer and psephologist Lord Hayward equally dismissed Mr Tice’s possibilities, emphasizing the ethnic variety of Labour’s working-class voter base – a gaggle Reform has alienated by its hostile stance on immigration and variety.
A 2019 Ipsos MORI ballot estimated that Labour received the votes of 64 per cent of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters in 2019, whereas simply 20 per cent voted for the Conservatives.
“It might due to this fact be an fascinating idea for a celebration that’s majored its marketing campaign at basically the white working class 2019 Tory voters, all of a sudden getting down to seize a gaggle of folks that successfully their marketing campaign has set about alienating,” Lord Hayward informed the Unbiased.
A Labour supply additionally dismissed Reform UK’s possibilities, saying that the get together have been solely involved about preventing the Conservatives: “We’re centered on profitable elections and to do this we have to beat the Tories. We’re not losing our time worrying about no matter Richard Tice is saying to get consideration this week.”
Reform UK have been approached for remark.