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Whether or not by battlefield success or strategic Ukrainian retreat, Russia is seeing some success within the Lyman-Severodonetsk axis.
It appears fated Russia finally swallow up Lyman and Severodonetsk, simply off the precise fringe of the map above—they’re the final two remaining Ukrainian strongholds north of the Donets River. And given Russia’s extreme troubles fording that river, Ukraine can have extra defensible territory on the southern financial institution when and in the event that they’re pushed again.
That Russian Popasna salient on the bottom-right of the map above might be extra problematic. There’s no river down there to supply fall-back safety if Ukrainian defensive strains collapse. Fortunately, Russia has been unable or unwilling to completely exploit that breakthrough, however they are going to proceed their drip-drip-drip of of cannon-fodder costs till Ukrainian defenses are worn by way of. Or at the least, that’s their hope.
Fast apart: Bear in mind when everybody (together with the Pentagon and UK intelligence) mentioned Russia had a giant, large offensive in retailer for the jap Donbas after their humiliating Kyiv retreat? Bear in mind how I laughed off the likelihood, given Russia’s full incapability to display any capability to launch large-scale coordinated assaults? I don’t fake to all the time be proper, however I’m so glad I referred to as this one appropriately. Our largest concern must be Russia studying from its errors. (And possibly nuclear annihilation, on additional thought…)
Not going to lie, I do not know why Ukraine fights so arduous for Lyman and Severodonetsk. Neither have any significantly strategic worth. They’ve each been principally emptied of civilians, flattened by Russian artillery. However Russia’s features within the space (like all over the place else on this entrance) have come at a frightful value, so maybe there’s no cause to desert meticulously created defensive emplacements till they really must abandon them? Russia is actually telegraphing uncertainty about its capability to seize town, resulting in these disastrous bridging makes an attempt to encompass Severodonetsk.
These rash, determined river crossings underscore simply how Severodonetsk is to Russia’s warfare planners in the intervening time. It clearly wants a victory to parade on state TV, to encourage flagging morale, and to present its aimless slog function. The victory doesn’t have to be strategic. In actuality, it will be a fair smaller goal than its already shrunken territorial ambitions:
Russia is operating out of troops and heading to the purpose of end result, a phrase you’ll be listening to an increasing number of—the purpose the place a military is so degraded that it may possibly now not battle. Ukraine went on the counter-offensive round Kharkiv, and Russia had nothing. This supposedly mighty superpower, the world’s second-best military, pathetically retreated within the face of evenly armed territorial protection troops. Russia couldn’t even muster any reserves from Belgorod, only a stone’s throw away. They’re operating on fumes.
Russian personal army corporations are reportedly forming mixed items with airborne parts on account of vital losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne items with mercenaries is stunning, and could be the clearest indication but that Russia has exhausted its out there combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from different Black Sea Fleet items, together with navy ship crewmembers. Newly shaped or regrouped items are unlikely to be efficient in fight.
Russia has needed to withdraw at the least a few of its forces from the Izyum salient—its largest focus of troops in all of Ukraine with about 20-25% of its whole battalion tactical teams—to protect its vital provide hub at Kupiansk. Russia shouldn’t overly sweat it, as a result of Ukraine is urgent straight on Izyum as a substitute from the west and sure its northwest.
NASA FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery is quiet right this moment, however it’s additionally been raining. Cloud cowl can obscure sensors, and moist situations can suppress fires. Or possibly everybody took Sunday off, who is aware of. Fog of warfare, and all.
In the meantime, Russia is having a tricky time with folks doing shit regardless of its threats. There’s Kyrgyzstan:
Finland and Sweden, in fact:
There was Poland.
And Iceland…
They’re threatening UK:
They even threaten a singing competitors.
Russia is a bankrupt nation with a bankrupt military and a bankrupt chief who has misplaced his thoughts. They dominated their area and struck concern into its neighbors by pretending to have a functioning superpower-class army. As a substitute, the one acceptable responses to threats like those above seem like this:
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