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Every single day, Ukraine releases a listing of claimed Russian kills. Not too long ago, we’ve marvelled on the massive variety of claimed artillery kills, seemingly confirmed by a lot of drone movies of focused Russian artillery weapons and by Russian sources themselves, lamenting the “artillery genocide” they face.
However the latest update was so ridiculous, it appeared method to good to be true:
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34 tanks.
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91 armored personnel autos.
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And simply 18 artillery weapons, when 30-40 had been the norm.
There was no method that Ukraine really destroyed 125 armored autos (plus artillery), might it’s? Had Ukraine’s Ministry of Protection succumbed to the identical unrealistic propaganda claims that we see day by day from the Russian facet?
After which the movies started to emerge.
Over the previous two weeks, Russian forces launched two large assaults within the east. One assault was directed towards Avdiivka, on the outskirts of town of Donetsk in an space the place Russia has been unable to meaningfully transfer the entrance line since 2014, regardless of actually actually making an attempt. The opposite assault occurred outdoors of Kreminna.
Given Russia’s efforts to make use of the warfare in Israel to its personal dastardly profit, maybe they wished to couple their propaganda efforts with a tangible victory on the bottom. As a substitute, given the movies that are actually rising, we’re seeing the worst Russian catastrophe since the Battle of Vuhledar, when Russia misplaced over 100 items of armor over a number of months of fruitless costs over open, mined terrain.
Avdiivka
Yesterday, Ukrainian open-source intelligence outlet Deep State reported on Telegram on the Russian operation:
Right now was one of the vital troublesome days on the Avdiivka course
The enemy went on the assault with a number of columns, full of infantry. The assault was accompanied by artillery, aviation and missile strikes. Columns superior from Krasnohorivka, Novoselivka Druha, Vodyane, Pisky and Vesele. Russians managed to seize sure positions, however contemplating the variety of personnel and gear that was concerned, the outcomes are merely deplorable for the enemy.
Russians hoped for a blitzkrieg. Losses of apparatus are colossal, analysts will quickly be counting. A whole bunch of Russian squaddies have been engaged and they’re nonetheless roaming the no man’s land. The combating continues. Certainly, every thing might have been a lot worse, however the coordinated work of the Protection Forces of Ukraine produced outcomes. In fact, it was not with out losses.
The rising video proof backs up this evaluation. This video reveals over two dozen armored autos approaching down a street as they start to take incoming Ukrainian fireplace.
One other column; might be the identical one. I can’t inform. Ukrainian sources declare there have been three separate ones.
The lead automobile in that column literally falls into a lake earlier than the entire column leads to a kill zone:
There are extra pictures and movies of destroyed autos here, here, here, right here, here, right here, right here, and here, and there are doubtless extra I’ve missed. We might not have express video proof of 125 destroyed armored autos, however new movies are being launched recurrently, and the numbers are definitely important. Ukraine’s claims not appear so ludicrous.
Russian Telegram warfare blogger Murz claimed the entire operation was designed to relieve pressure around Bakhmut, the place Ukraine is slowly and methodically advancing, and reminded his readers that Russia is trying to regain positions it misplaced in latest weeks. And even at that, Russia has failed.
For all of the destruction, Russia did handle to retake, er, a trash dump. I’m not kidding. It is a pro-Russian supply that has confirmed itself reliable:
There’s one thing becoming about “rubbish hill” being the extent of Russia’s accomplishments on such a disastrous day for them.
Kreminna
Additional north, round Kreminna and Lyman, Russians determined to throw away extra lives and gear:
Word, not all these destroyed autos are needed from the final two days. One OSINT tally of as we speak’s movies has verified the next (with official Ukrainian claims in parenthesis):
Extra movies are rising whilst I write this, so I’m actually hoping that Ukraine’s claims are ultimately substantiated by the visible proof.
Ukraine’s summer time offensive seems spent, with Ukraine joyful to make use of its new artillery benefits to degrade Russian forces and defenses from afar, making small tactical advances when it’s comparatively secure to take action. And moderately than proceed its efficient protection, working to freeze the battle in place whereas hoping and ready for Donald Trump to regain the White Home, Russia is amping up its offensive operations, serving to Ukraine higher degrade its enemy’s manpower and gear. At the very least one Ukrainian soldier on Telegram is joyful on the flip of occasions.
I’m not seeing any NATO gear sourced from Ukraine…
Attention-grabbing seeing North Korea among the many sources. There may be undoubtedly a Russia-Iran-North Korea axis of evil rising. Republicans want to grasp that Ukraine’s combat is similar as Israel’s.
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