State Coincident Indicators: November 2022

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The Philly Fed’s November State Coincident Indicators snuck out whereas I used to be away (1/28/22). There are rising indicators of native misery revealed within the midwest, and plenty of softness elsewhere

As detailed right here, over the previous month, the SCI indicies elevated in 30 states, decreased in 13 states, and remained secure in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 34. That’s an enchancment over October, when the indexes elevated in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and had been secure in 8.

The Philly Fed map relies on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment information for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that reveals the connection between the state information and recessions:

Variety of States with Unfavourable Progress (State Coincident Indexes)

I’ve one minor quibble about this chart above based mostly on the info (at prime) by way of the St Louis Fed: It’s not that 26 states have “Unfavourable progress,” however that many of those states have “progress charges which might be falling (some are optimistic, some detrimental).” To not be too picayune however there’s a distinction between the 2.

I consider “Unfavourable Progress” as beneath zero or contractionary, whereas “Falling Progress” is just beneath the place it was the month prior (optimistic or detrimental).

I reached out to its writer to make clear the info.

UPDATE: Jan 4 2022 10:53am

Kevin Kliesen responds:

“That is a kind of cases when information revisions complicate the lifetime of a forecaster!

My co-author up to date the chart and the November information now present that the variety of states with detrimental progress is nicely beneath the edge—at 15. I knew concerning the situation of revision with the underlying CES information, and in hindsight I ought to have pressured it. However I didn’t. That’s my mistake. The underside line is that whereas there appears to be an traditionally dependable sign from wanting on the information this manner, the latest observations—as with the nationwide information—can revise considerably.”

Right here is the up to date chart: