The Falcons are the least pathetic staff within the pathetic NFC South

One other week means one other heavy underdog getting tons of cash thrown its method. That is attention-grabbing as a result of the canine appears to win when bettors throw some huge cash behind it. Simply this season, many of the opinions I’ve written about have surrounded the 6-1 New York Giants. Massive Blue has an unimaginable means to regulate the tempo of play, dominate time of possession, but nonetheless handle huge performs — an enormous motive for his or her success regardless of an apparent lack of expertise.

The G-Males have labored their method out of the underdog gap it appears. As a substitute, a brand new contender has joined the fray— the Carolina Panthers, who’re being quarterbacked by a former XFL MVP, P.J. Walker.

In accordance with OddsChecker US, 60 % of moneyline bets on the upcoming Panthers-Falcons sport have gone in favor of Carolina, who would be the street staff on this contest.hat would possibly really be a bonus. The Panthers have gained their final two street matchups towards Atlanta and inside this collection, the street staff has wound up successful every of the final 4 and 5 of the final six.

Moreover, it’s laborious to cross up on the Carolina Panthers after Walker and firm simply dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-3. That stated, the Falcons are 2-1 at residence this 12 months with a win over the 49ers, so how dependable is the betting pattern actually?

The Soiled Birds run the ball on the second-highest price within the NFL (60.6 %) — forward of solely the Chicago Bears (64 %). The Carolina Panthers have probably the greatest run defenses within the NFL, at the least by way of yards allowed per carry (4.1 yards allowed per rush — seventh in NFL). They’re additionally top-10 in defensive first down rush share (23.4 %), and truly lead the NFL in anticipated factors added by their dashing protection (22.17), in response to Professional-Soccer-Reference.

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After every part I simply stated, you’d most likely assume I’d be leaning closely into Carolina’s favor as nicely, however I’m not. Why? As a result of San Francisco additionally has an elite run protection, and the Atlanta Falcons dominated the Niners.

Utilizing the run sport to open up the passing assault is what made Atlanta so dominant in that sport. The Falcons weren’t very efficient working the ball. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier averaged lower than 4 yards per carry. Positive, that’s fairly par for the course for any staff enjoying towards the 49ers, however until you’re averaging shut to 5 yards per carry, most groups are inclined to run the ball much less as the sport progresses. Not Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball with both Huntley or Allgeier 31 instances, with 14 of these carries coming within the first half earlier than any regular staff would begin giving into sport script. That doesn’t embrace runs by QB Marcus Mariota or Avery Williams both. That quantity could be method greater if that was the case.

Within the passing sport, Mariota went 13-for-14 by the air. Everyone knows he isn’t essentially the most correct quarterback, however even he was in a position to dissect the 49ers protection. Was quite a lot of it attributable to nice play design by head coach Arthur Smith? In all probability. Nevertheless, at the least within the first half, most of Atlanta’s huge cross performs didn’t come off play motion or fast display screen passes. They have been simply both good pre-snap reads, Atlanta receivers discovering a gap in protection, or Mariota stepping up and making a play together with his legs. Positive, the landing to MyCole Pruitt was off play motion, however by way of the drive down the sector virtually all of those aerial performs have been on primary dropbacks. Similar goes for the Falcon’s second landing drive capped off with a Mariota dashing TD.

Whereas Carolina’s offense seemed considerably potent final week, I’m not able to name a staff led by Walker, DJ Moore, and D’Onta Foreman higher than San Francisco. Atlanta’s protection was in a position to deal with a Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers staff and shouldn’t have a harder time with a Run CMC-less Panthers staff. There’s simply no method I see the Panthers dealing with the Falcons in addition to bettors appear to imagine. Contemplating the San Franmanhandled the Panthers only a few weeks in the past, I’m leaning closely in Atlanta’s favor. Positive, Carolina has arguably a greater quarterback now, however that gained’t be sufficient to grant a win. Give me Atlanta minus-four.