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Let’s begin together with his tackle Russian conflict propaganda.
Those that learn my [Telegram] channel may already discover {that a} horrible factor occurred to me just lately – I watched Russian TV …
The finale of the information launch typically made me doubt that I used to be watching Russian TV. The climate forecast included a narrative, sometimes Ukrainian in essence and presentation, that in Ukraine, the climate is sort of horrible – stable ice, in Dnepropetrovsk so many buses have crashed attributable to ice. Many of the remainder of the time was dedicated to rituals about the truth that not solely Ukraine, however lastly the entire of Europe will freeze this winter.
“The burghers are alarmed,” the announcer stated, finishing the “forecast”, “by the truth that black smoke poured out of the pipes of German thermal energy vegetation!”
Apparently, it was such a particular take a look at second to see how all the pieces within the viewer’s head has calibrated, as a result of alongside these phrases they confirmed odd white steam coming from these similar pipes. “In case you see white smoke, watch the information once more in an hour and repeat till the smoke turns black” or one thing like that.
We’ve laughed at how clumsy Russian propaganda will be, and right here is one among their very own pointing to how ridiculous all of it is. It’s like Fox Information and conservatives: Folks choose to be advised all the pieces is okay, even when their eyes reveal the reality of the scenario.
That is additionally a reminder that Russia, unable to win on the battlefield, has actually invested an incredible deal into making winter as depressing as potential for not simply Ukrainians, however for his or her European allies. Direct assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure have actually made Ukraine’s life tougher, however Europe is getting alongside simply wonderful with out Russian petroleum or pure gasoline. Irrespective of how a lot Russian propaganda would possibly declare in any other case, reality is that Russian oil exports have collapsed and Europe is opening up liquified pure gasoline terminals at breakneck velocity, making Russian gasoline out of date. In consequence, this has been taking place:
All of the smoke and mirrors used to prop up the ruble and the Russian financial system are much less efficient by the day.
However again to Murz. Subsequent up is his evaluation of how Russia is destroying its tanks through the use of them as long-range oblique hearth (in different phrases, like artillery). When he talks about tanks firing from “closed positions,” he means properly within the rear versus maneuvering on the vanguard of an assault.
Separate fierce fuck-up are the consistently popping up movies from the first Military Corps of the DPR displaying firing from tanks from closed positions, practiced frequently. The horror right here, after all, is just not that tanks shoot from closed positions, they’ll do it, a superb tankman ought to be capable to do it … The horror is that with the silent catastrophic lack of shells in artillery (you’ll be able to’t discuss it, as a result of then somebody must reply for it, however nobody desires to), it was determined to exchange artillery with tanks frequently …
In actuality, such capturing is an emergency momentary measure in a scenario the place it’s essential to cowl a big focus of the enemy, and there’s no free artillery at hand or it’s unattainable to make use of it due to the operational counter-battery hearth, to which the tank, attributable to thick armor, is way much less inclined than self-propelled artillery weapons and, particularly, the towed weapons wherein the crew and ammunition load are usually not coated in any respect. Easy-bore tank weapons are usually not designed for what they’re now doing all day lengthy: repeatedly bombarding enemy positions with high-explosive fragmentation shells.
There’s a substantial amount of debate about whether or not Russia is working out of artillery shells. Certainly, Bakhmut’s defenders have famous a big lower within the depth of the Russian barrages. Some speculate that Russia is hoarding ammo for a significant new offensive. Others say that provides are dwindling. But others say that it’s simply Russia shifting items throughout the battlefield, or that Russia is utilizing this time to do upkeep on their weapons, like changing barrels.
Right here Murz is saying that not less than within the Donbas, Russian forces are so low on artillery shells that they’ve changed them with tank shelling. The issue is these tanks aren’t designed to fireside this a lot, with projectiles hurtled at far larger speeds (to pierce enemy armor) than artillery shells. That may work as a short-term Band-Support, but it surely knocks these tanks out of fee once they truly, you realize, want tanks. Perhaps that’s why these Wagner troops are assaulting Ukrainian defensive positions round Bakhmut with none armor help.
Subsequent up, Murz talks about how Ukraine is “duping” Russia into losing lives round Donetsk metropolis.
This duping is easy. For the reason that Armed Forces of Ukraine don’t give a shit in regards to the destiny of civilians in Doncek, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are hitting the town with a number of rocket launchers. All of the preparations for firing will be executed upfront, the BM-21 set up ultimately rolls out to the purpose actually for a few minutes, the precise bundle of 40 missiles leaves the rails in lower than a minute … In the long run, a “counter-battery hearth” in opposition to such missile terror by looking for and destroying techniques with our present sources will give nearly nothing. And that’s precisely what the enemy is relying on. He’s relying on the truth that politicians, having seen sufficient of burning metropolis blocks, will put strain on the army – “Drive the ukrops away from the town!” And the first Armed Corps will proceed to kill the remnants of their infantry on the Ukrainian fortified areas round Donetsk.
Whereas Ukraine undoubtedly strikes infrastructure targets inside Donetsk metropolis, that is what it appears like right now:
The town has energy, which may simply be reduce because it’s properly inside vary of Ukrainian artillery. But when it’s struck, it’s the rail infrastructure, it’s the gasoline storage, it’s the ammo dumps and troop concentrations. Ukraine doesn’t have the munitions to waste on civilian targets, nor the inclination to take action even when it wished. This propagandist declare is a reminder that Murz is a Russian nationalist true believer.
What’s extra fascinating is how Murz sees Russia haplessly falling for Ukrainian traps. It’s Ukraine with the battlefield initiative, not Russia, and it’s costing his house workforce. Not that he thinks Russia at all times must be tricked into slaughtering its personal forces …
In different sectors of the entrance, the Russian command doesn’t want such a goading, because it voluntarily drives to slaughter the final remnants of the infantry, now not very combat-ready attributable to earlier losses. The Russian army has an unbelievable expertise for turning any village with a few landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their very own, not enemy, models are floor.
What a flip of phrase! “The Russian army has an unbelievable expertise for turning any village with a few landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their very own, not enemy, models are floor.” If I ever get round to writing my guide about Dovhen’ke, that sentence is making it to the jacket cowl.
Subsequent up, he laments the poor state of Russia’s communications, or extra precisely, the dearth of any. It’s why we do not see something bigger than (actually) a handful of troops assault any place at any given time. It’s unattainable to coordinate any such assaults with out working radios.
Nothing bigger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” within the RF Armed Forces will be managed as a single organism. And, after all, on this scenario, the battalion commanders and firm commanders of those “remnants” turn out to be well-deserved heroes, who, if potential, drag all of the shit on their very own backs. Though extra usually, alas, they don’t. And they’re buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, every organized worse than the earlier one, we nonetheless seize one other piece of land and gather their rotten stays.
From the truth that the Russian military can do nothing apart from bleeding and capturing one other village whereas surrendering a district middle or a whole area on the opposite flank. So the Russian military made a tremendous conclusion—let’s take extra villages! And organized the utmost potential Verduns alongside your complete entrance line, together with the very notorious Pavlovka within the DPR. And, after all, Bakhmut. How may or not it’s with out it? Why not kill the final remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not potential in any respect. These fucking bastards have to get constructive information someplace! Right here, we freed one other 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the primary to report on the whole liberation of the village will get a medal.
I wrote about Pavlivka right here, and about Ukraine’s defensive technique at Bakhmut right here. And I like the plain sarcasm as he celebrates the capturing of some insignificant village as Russia loses whole areas on the opposite flank. You would possibly keep in mind how one pro-Russian Twitter account celebrated Wagner’s seize of a hill close to Bakhmut, whereas Ukraine was at that very second liberating nearly the whole thing of Kharkiv oblast.
Subsequent up, Murz tackles the dearth of unified Russian army presence.
May [Russia] replenish the depleted models, wherein motivated officers and sergeants, army gear remained? They might. It was potential to get rid of that monstrous patchwork that’s the RF Armed Forces, when troopers of assorted army models, the Nationwide Guard, PMCs, BARS volunteers”, “Akhmads” crowd on the sq. of 1 or two kilometers? It might be. However nobody did it. The enemy has been rendered a large-scale service, worthy of a army tribunal, which, after all, is not going to occur.
This can be a subject we’ve touched on earlier than, and deserves a deep dive. There is no such thing as a unified Russian command. As Russian forces have been thrown again in Kharkiv oblast, Russia’s ministry of protection begged Wagner (a “PMC,” or “non-public army contractor”) to maneuver forces up and assist cease the Ukrainian advance. Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin (often known as “Putin’s chef”) refused, bragging that his folks have been the one Russians wherever on the entrance advancing. He was too busy feeding jail cannon fodder into the wooden chipper round Bakhmut to provide a rat’s ass about anybody else’s issues. He actually does not purchase into any grander technique.
Then there’s the Rosgvardia—Putin’s non-public nationwide guard—as a result of god forbid the common military get too huge and harmful and threaten Putin’s rule. They’re historically used to suppress civilian uprisings in Russia, and in Ukraine they’ve principally been seen round Kherson. Now, presumably they’re in Melitopol, Mariupol, and different occupied cities.
BARS are volunteer battalions of mobilized former army veterans. They’re those holding the road round Kreminna and Svatove, and by many indications are comparatively competent. “Akhmad” I assume is a racist reference to Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen militias. After that includes closely on TikTok early within the conflict, they appear to have principally disappeared. Rumors are they’re “barrier” troops, capturing any retreating Russian prisoners or mobilized fodder, however I’m unsure I purchase it. Given we final really noticed them in Kherson, I think they’re additionally a part of Russia’s defenses in Zaporizhzhia oblast, on the approaches to Tokmak, Melitopol, and Berdyansk. Kadyrov has been cold and warm on Russia’s Ministry of Protection, and appears to assist when he feels prefer it or it’s in his curiosity.
In the beginning of the conflict, there wasn’t even a unified commander, with every axis of assault commanded by one among Russia’s army districts. As such, all of them fought for sources, consideration, and glory. That appears to have been solved not simply by the appointment of a supreme commander (Sergey Surovikin), however by the elimination of all however a type of axes of assault. And but nonetheless, even right now, Russia’s models stay fragmented. Experiences of them firing on one another are frequent, and if Murz is right, it’s even worse than anybody thinks.
Shifting on …
Is it price discussing the development of the “Faberge Line” [Surovikin’s Line]?
This man is aware of how you can use phrases! I didn’t know Faberge, identified for its delicate and breathtakingly costly “imperial eggs” and jewellery, was a Russian firm.
Thus Murz mocks the fragility of the defensive traces Russia is constructing all throughout its captured territories. Of the white concrete pyramids that make up a part of these traces, he rolls his eyes, “God forbid the tank is scratched” because it punches by means of. He notes that rains have washed away the foundations of defensive emplacements. In the meantime, he notes that Russia ought to’ve realized from Ukraine on how you can correctly defend.
It’s a disgrace to study from the enemy of our military, but within the meantime this spring and summer time the enemy demonstrated within the Donbas all the required elements of a profitable long-term protection, which sipped quite a lot of blood of our troops. It immediately seems that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have issues with these points, and all potential rudiments of enhancements are destroyed on the root. I repeat as soon as once more – this degree of army incompetence merely doesn’t exist. That is deliberate sabotage, sabotage and betrayal.
Murz has made these accusations earlier than, that Russia’s conflict effort is so catastrophically horrible that it could actually’t presumably be mere incompetence. He’s satisfied that treason is on the root, and that he continues to submit unbothered by Russian authorities speaks to … one thing.
Wagner’s Prigozhin and Kadyrov have each tried guilty Russia’s Ministry of Protection for his or her disastrous efficiency, but Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu survives, lest Putin be pressured to confess errors. The Ministry of Protection tried guilty Russia’s SBU safety companies for dangerous intelligence heading into Ukraine, and the rumor is that it’s them who’re defending ultra-nationalist critics of the conflict like Murz and Girkin—they shift the main focus and blame again on the armed forces.
Subsequent up, extra on Russia’s issues with its artillery:
The subsequent merchandise is artillery. Regular defence is constructed on artillery and round artillery … No artillery – no protection. Rifle infantry is not going to maintain the protection for a very long time. The Armed Forces of Ukraine mastered their artillery for 7 years, the Russian military relaxed its artillery as greatest it may […] And, after all, stopping any makes an attempt to automate the work of artillery with the assistance of applicable software program. “Not allowed”. We see the outcome. Monstrous lunar landscapes within the fields, the place there may be not a hint of Ukrainian fortifications. Echelons of ammunition flew away to nowhere beneath the approving bleat of propagandists and “specialists” like Shurygin. And in the long run, artillery depots close to Izyum, handed over to the enemy. Effectively executed!
We’ve seen these lunar landscapes. Right here is the outskirts of Dovhen’ke:
Murz has a degree. Each single a type of shells hit seedlings and crops and possibly some locusts, however … there wasn’t a single Ukrainian soldier, piece of kit, or place wherever out within the open like that. Ukrainians like to speak about Russia’s large artillery benefit, however the overwhelming majority is spray-and-pray, hitting nothing of worth. Now, such quantity implies that ultimately, one thing of worth will get hit. Most accidents and deaths on this conflict come from artillery, not bullet wounds, and Ukraine has misplaced as many as 50,000 troopers this conflict up to now. So none of that is meant to reduce the injury from Russian artillery. However simply think about, what in the event that they have been truly good at their craft?
The outcome in the intervening time (which the Russian media and biased bloggers are diligently making an attempt to cowl up) … is a monstrous shell starvation in artillery. Air strikes from afar with unguided 80-mm rockets from a pitch-up (as a result of should you fly nearer, they may shoot you down) solely tickles a well-entrenched enemy, though it could actually look very spectacular. Pew pew pew! Hooray! What a shot! And when the smoke settled – one other plowed discipline.
“Pew pew pew hurray!” I’m dying. This man is humorous! “Shell starvation” is the direct translation of “ammunition scarcity.” He retains coming again to this, saying they’re working out.
And you know the way Ukrainians have had nice success utilizing drones to drop grenades on Russian troopers? Murz mocks Russian makes an attempt to repeat that technique.
On our aspect, the silly morons who wasted the ammo on plowing the fields determined to exchange the six-inch projectiles with VOGs [greandes] dropped from copters. With the motivation “Effectively, hohols do it!”
However you fucking can’t … As a result of hohols have realized over time how you can correctly terrorize our motherfuckers with these grenade drops. They’ve techniques, they’ve a system for making use of it. Beginning with a reliable alternative of a web site that’s optimum for dumping terror, figuring out handy targets and ending with a focus of forces – when 4-6 copters prepare a “carousel” over some unit for a number of hours, bombarding it with these VOGs or makeshift bombs. And also you fuckers simply order the “Mavics”, for which the folks have scraped collectively the cash, hoping that they may conduct reconnaissance and regulate artillery. No, let’s bomb. Instantly! Tomorrow! And folks run to hold out your fucking order, headlong, with out actually figuring out both techniques or reconnaissance of targets. And they’re making an attempt to intimidate the military of moles with 30-mm little shits dropped from copters. And hohols jam these “Mavics” and shoot them down for their very own pleasure, as a result of they’re NOT RETARDS, THEY ARE LEARNING. And the artillery stays not solely with meager ammo but in addition with out eyes.
“Hohol” is the Russian slur for Ukrainian. Other than a number of hateful slurs (as a result of he is Russian in any case), that is hilarious. Russian artillery desperately lacks eyes on the enemy. Effectively-meaning supporters crowdsource drones for these models, however as a substitute of utilizing them to regulate artillery hearth, they wish to do cool grenade drops identical to their enemy does. However since they don’t know how you can do it, they’ve simply wasted that treasured drone their households and supporters scrimped to purchase.
I’m going to wrap up together with his view on Russian infantry, though his screed goes on and on.
By grinding down the remnants of the infantry in mini-Verduns alongside your complete entrance, the Russian command renders a useful service to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which within the spring and summer time confirmed how necessary it’s to have a reserve of not less than considerably ready infantry, which may fill increasingly rapidly constructed traces as a substitute of these taken by our troops. We is not going to have such a provide of individuals for the winter offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On common, our infantry is ready disgustingly, with out even referring to tactical points. Taking pictures coaching is a whole ass and is tough to repair as a result of there are neither folks able to utilizing the instruments for reconciling capturing and coaching folks, nor the instruments themselves. Virtually nobody is aware of how you can use group weapons usually.
These defensive traces look imposing, and will definitely decelerate any Ukrainian offensive. However the line is barely as efficient as its manned infantry defenders, and mechanized (armored) reserves within the rear, prepared to reply to any Ukrainian breakthrough.
Additionally, give it a little bit time and people defensive traces could actually crumble into mud. That course of has already begun.
You gotta love Russian corruption. However Murz doesn’t simply criticize the workmanship of the defensive emplacements, however stresses the significance of skilled defenders in these trenches. He’s completely proper.
I used to be an artilleryman, hearth route for MLRS. My infantry data is rudimentary at greatest. My son is a military infantryman, and I’ve paid consideration to his coaching. One thing so simple as making ready a defensive emplacement for a squad or platoon is a fancy components of firing factors and logistical concerns. Right here, go to web page 5-30 of the Ranger handbook, which informs U.S. infantry expertise, and take a look at the complexity of establishing a easy momentary perimeter protection. Each American officer learns this process, and each American NCO is drilled on it in order that they’ll do it of their sleep. An efficient combating pressure learns these expertise. NATO armies study it. Russia by no means did.
On the similar time, Ukraine has mastered the artwork of protection. Their “versatile protection” strikes backwards and forwards between layered trenches relying on the tactical scenario. No cause to sit down in ahead positions beneath Russian artillery. They’re pleased to retreat, enable Russian infantry to advance, then hit them as they prolong previous their protected positions, with stretched provide traces. As soon as the Russian advance is handled, Ukraine can return to their ahead positions, ebbing and flowing just like the tides. We’ve seen it time and time once more this conflict, at present at Bakhmut.
Now think about a mobilized Russian, with zero management or coaching, thrown right into a trench and advised to carry the road. Sure, he’ll be a velocity bump that may should be handled by any advancing Ukrainian pressure, however that’s about it.
Anyway, that was enjoyable. The most important takeaway? Murz didn’t say a lot we didn’t already know. It implies that we’re not blinded by hopium and copium, however have a real, trustworthy, and clear image of Russia’s rank difficulties.
As for Murz, final I checked, his Livejournal had been taken down by Russia. So who is aware of, possibly he’s not so protected in any case.
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