[ad_1]
Comfortable Thanksgiving, all! As we speak can also be the nine-month anniversary of Russia’s unlawful invasion. Largely going to do some bullet-point updates at this time. I’m cranking this out as shortly as I can, and am skipping self-editing. Everybody else is out at this time. So please forgive the uncooked prose and no matter grammar, spelling, and readability errors may exist.
Awkward.
These are Vladimir Putin’s “allies” within the Collective Safety Treaty Group, Russia’s laughable response to NATO. Armenia is on its means out, pissed that not one of the different nations within the group (together with Russia) got here to its assist as neighboring Azerbaijan invaded and occupied massive swaths of its territory a few months in the past.
Two different member states—Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—have been border-skirmishing the final two months. And Kazakhstan has cozied as much as Beijing, with China warning Russia to cease attempting and meddle in Kazakh affairs.
That latter improvement has, predictably, pissed off Russian nationalists.
Oh boy did the Kazakh authorities not take this properly, main Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to recommend individuals “to not pay attention and to not watch” Russian state propaganda. Extra awkwardness.
That is … unbelievable:
It’s a war-vehicle graveyard close to Belgorod, Russia, close to Ukraine’s northern border, with tons of of broken and destroyed tanks and armored infantry autos. Oryx, who maintains the database of visually confirmed tools kills, is clearly flummoxed on coping with this.
Ukraine at present claims it has destroyed 2,898 tanks and 5,839 armored autos. The Oryx database counts 1,505 Russian destroyed, captured, and broken tanks, and three,357 different armored autos. Whereas the tools graveyard above doesn’t shut the hole, it actually shrinks it and means that Ukraine’s numbers aren’t as loopy as some may assume.
Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban claims he doesn’t oppose Swedish and Finnish NATO membership, and “subsequent 12 months” is barely a month away. That’s all tutorial regardless, as a result of the true roadblock is Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That one could also be on maintain till Turkey’s subsequent presidential elections subsequent June.
Certainly, Turkey’s large beef is Scandinavian assist for the Kurdish plight in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran (one more place the place arbitrarily drawn colonial borders proceed to separate individuals and create intractable instability). That is additionally a degree of battle with the US—two days in the past, Turkey bombed a base in northern Syria utilized by Kurds, Syrian allies, and … our personal forces (although none have been current on the time of the assault). To say the state of affairs is delicate is placing it mildly, and it’s onerous to see Erdogan being placated any time quickly.
Very North Korea-like. And … what’s Hungary’s excuse?
Right here we go once more.
Ukraine liberates whole oblasts and the one regional capital Russia ever managed to seize, and Russia brags about capturing a rubbish dump, actually. Mark Sumner has joked up to now (quoting commenters, I consider) how the battle of Bakhmut reads like a battle for a mall, “Combating as soon as once more on the T.J. Max!”
Russia is a terrorist state.
Barbarians. There may be zero army worth in these assaults on residential neighborhoods. Russia is trying to terrorize Ukrainian civilians into submission.
Oh that is good information viz:
This was as soon as a five-front conflict—Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Kherson. All that is still at this time is Donbas—northern Luhansk (Svatove), and Donetsk (Bakhmut, Donetsk Metropolis environs, and Pavlivka/Vulhedar).
Ukraine has systematically pushed Russia into that single entrance, the place it stays incapable of mounting any critical strategically-relevant offensive operations. On the draw back, Russia can now focus all of its forces, together with artillery, right into a a lot smaller entrance line. Positive, Ukraine can accomplish that as properly, however it signifies that this meat-grinder of a entrance is turning into much more lethal for either side.
Ukraine will need to keep away from a repeat of the April-June Battle of the Donbas attritional conflict. Russia has a near-endless provide of mobilized cannon fodder for suicide assaults on Ukrainian trenches. It’s equally troublesome to advance on that mass of Russian our bodies in strengthened defensive positions. The important thing can be to proceed degrading Russia’s command and management and logistics. Which means Svatove and Starobilsk are must-takes, as these would knock the Belgorod hub out of the conflict, forcing Russia to route provide traces to Ukraine’s jap border, in addition to Melitopol, which might collapse the Russian presence in southeast Ukraine, minimize any remaining provide traces from Crimea, minimize its water, and go away it open to Ukrainian liberation.
At that time, we’d be principally again to the February borders within the Donbas, with Russia severely depleted. It’s no accident that conflict movies at this time are principally uncovered Russian infantry getting shredded by drones and artillery, with little or no Russian armor in sight. They’ve bought nothing left however lives to throw into the grinder.
Which means we are able to count on many extra months of mass loss of life round Bakhmut and Svatove and different settlements round these “scorching” areas on the map above, as Ukraine merely holds its floor whereas plotting strategic advances towards Melitopol/Crimea within the south, and Svatove/Starobilsk within the northeast. Sucks for these poor Ukrainian caught in these trenches. What a nightmare.
My guess? And it is a guess, not a options or demand—As soon as Ukraine has pushed Russia again to the unique February Donbas borders, with Russia’s southern Crimea positions beneath actual Ukrainian menace, the probabilities of negotiations turns into actual.
[ad_2]
Source link