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Ukraine analyst Def Mon on Twitter has an important overview of the scenario round Robotyne. If that evaluation is correct, count on Ukraine’s progress to decelerate once more.
However that’s truly a good factor.
Each RO37 and Mark Sumner have given us nice updates on the scenario at Robotyne within the final two days. In brief, Ukraine didn’t simply breach Russia’s first main defensive position on the closely guarded method to the strategic metropolis of Tokmak, however they’ve additionally breached the second—and seemingly strongest—of the strains.
What was as soon as a gradual, plodding advance picked up a substantial amount of steam, surprising observers with its sudden fast positive aspects. But when all goes properly, issues ought to decelerate for a bit. And that’s not a typo—if issues go properly.
Right here is Def Mon’s map of the present Robotyne scenario.
Let’s undergo his notes from left to proper.
[Russian armed forces] continues to counter assault from the south of Robotyne to have the ability to declare they haven’t misplaced the village
We’ve seen this time and time once more, the place Russia would quite lose troops out within the open in useless makes an attempt to regain misplaced territory than reinforce their defensive positions. That is Russian doctrine, perhaps as a result of it was simpler for commanders to sacrifice lives in militarily futile gestures than it was to tell Stalin/Lenin/Putin that they’d misplaced floor.
In any case, we all know Russia has moved reinforcements from each Kherson and Luhansk to try to stem the Ukrainian advance. In case anybody was questioning how they’d use these troops, apparently it’s to not reinforce their defensive strains.
As a substitute, they’re again to sending them out within the open to get shredded by Ukrainian artillery, drones, and dug-in Ukrainians. These ways have actually managed to decelerate Ukrainian advances, however at a silly price, scaling down their defenses behind these important strains and making Ukrainian victory finally extra possible. There’s a motive Ukraine took two months to breach the primary line, and solely every week to breach the second line.
It’s in Ukraine’s curiosity to easily sit fairly and let Russia come to them quite than making an attempt to ferret them out of their defensive strains.
Right here’s one other sudden issue. “Because the long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive kicked off throughout southern Ukraine in early June, Russian commanders made an necessary adjustment to their defensive doctrine—one which had an instantaneous and profound impact on the Ukrainians’ operations,“ Forbes’ David Axe reported. “The Russians quadrupled the depth of their defensive minefields, from 120 meters to 500 meters—and likewise elevated the density of mines throughout the expanded fields … However there’s a draw back for the Russians. In increasing their minefields, they’ve depleted their minelaying assets quicker than they could initially have anticipated. So the minefields are uneven.”
In different phrases, Russia efficiently f’d the Ukrainian advance by layering a mind-boggling variety of mines forward of the primary defensive position. However—and that is key—which means they don’t have the mines to correctly cowl territory behind that first line. It’s an enormous motive Ukraine was in a position to advance so rapidly to the second line. Odds are good that the bottom behind that subsequent line has even fewer mines.
That would definitely clarify why Russia has fought so arduous to forestall Ukraine from even reaching these important strains.
Subsequent Def Mon bubble:
[Ukrainian armed forces] took trenches within the woods south of Robotyne
This was lined within the earlier two updates, and continues to be an enormous shock. Russia is now counterattacking not simply Robotyne itself, however is trying to retake their very own defensive trenchline, which is now occupied by Ukraine. Severely, Ukraine can sit there for months mowing down approaching Russians and it will be time properly spent.
All of the whereas, Ukraine continues to “form the battlefield” by eliminating the best hazard to Ukrainian forces. It’s not mines, truly—it’s artillery. And Ukraine’s claimed artillery kills this week have been downright gaudy.
Final night time, Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 37 artillery weapons and 5 MLRS rocket artillery launchers. That signifies that over the previous three days, Ukraine has claimed to have destroyed 111 artillery weapons and 12 MLRS launchers.
The explanation minefields are so lethal is it permits Russia to funnel advancing Ukrainians into “kill zones,” slender lanes the place artillery can simply zero in and wipe out something inside. That forces anybody advancing to rush via lest they get caught within the barrage, and that haste typically results in the sorts of errors that get autos destroyed and folks killed.
Take out the artillery and Ukraine can advance at leisure, with fight engineers clearing huge lanes with out concern of assault. The Ukrainian spearhead can occupy Russian trenches with out dealing with relentless barrages. And Ukrainian artillery can function extra freely with out concern of Russian counterbattery fireplace. (Although suicide drones are actually an ongoing problem.)
Shifting on.
[Ukraine is] slowly advancing alongside the windbreaks NE of Novoprokopivka
Take a look at the satellite tv for pc imagery of that space once more:
Everybody is concentrated on the principle defensive strains. But every a kind of tree strains has trenches manned by Russian defenders. And regardless of our greatest hopes, these Russians are placing up a fierce protection.
Which means Ukraine has to advance slowly, tree line to tree line, even when it’s simply two or three Russians holed up with rifles.
[Ukraine] clearing up badly ready RU infantry trenches west of Verbove, and have most definitely established positions in them
This stays probably the most thrilling information all week. Ukraine bypassed the anti-vehicle line (the primary yellow line within the map above) and occupied the infantry positions behind it. Which means Ukraine has the house to methodically clear the minefields forward of that automobile line with out getting focused by infantry, in addition to bridging the anti-vehicle trenches, often by dumping filth and gravel inside them.
Ukrainian infantry can sit in these trenches till these automobile lanes are opened up, after which proceed on their advance as soon as their armor can be a part of them.
At that time, they’ll determine whether or not to take Verbove and defend their flank, or start rolling up that Russian defensive position from the rear. Do not forget that it’s on the high of a ridgeline, so whether or not they hit it from the entrance or the again, they’re attacking uphill. However as soon as they take it, it’s all downhill to Tokmak.
All in all, count on progress to gradual. Not as a result of Russia is profitable the tactical combat, however as a result of it’s in Ukraine’s curiosity to degrade counterattacking Russian forces, destroy extra Russian artillery items, and shore up that method close to Verbove to allow them to encompass that defensive position from the east.
That is wonderful:
The German Gepard anti-aircraft gun was slated for decommissioning when the battle began. Its rapid-burst gun was thought of out of date within the age of subtle missile air protection programs. Then drones modified the face of the battlefield, and the Gepard has develop into one of the vital beneficial anti-drone defenses.
Its ammunition hadn’t been manufactured in many years, and Switzerland blocked supply of 12,000 rounds it had manufactured. Nonetheless, in lower than a yr, German arms producer Rheinmetall AG miraculously created a complete new manufacturing line for the ammo. It started supply this week.
Ukraine will get 40,000 rounds by the tip of the yr, which can go a great distance since within the video, you will note the crew destroy two Iranian-made Shahed drones with only a handful of six-round bursts.
Germany has additionally promised to ship dozens extra Gepards by the tip of the yr. It’s unclear the place these are coming from, however we all know that Jordan was phasing out the system, and each the U.S. and Germany had been seeking to buy them for Ukraine.
Given their efficiency, it will make sense for Germany to renew manufacturing and gross sales of the system. It’s a lifesaver on this drone-infested fashionable battlefield.
You possibly can learn extra nice Ukraine protection by each workers and neighborhood members right here.
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