Warfare in Ukraine: how Europe’s gasoline foyer is exploiting fears over power safety

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Europe’s gasoline trade has ramped up its messaging since Russia invaded Ukraine, DeSmog can reveal. It seems to be exploiting nervousness over power safety to justify tasks that threat locking Europe into long-term dependence on fossil fuels.

4 of the trade’s foyer organisations started to publish many extra tweets portraying investments in gasoline and associated infrastructure as the important thing to safe power provides quickly after the invasion began. They maintained this technique all through final 12 months.

The foyer teams had been Gasoline Infrastructure Europe; Gasoline For Local weather; Eurogas; and the European department of the Worldwide Affiliation of Oil & Gasoline Producers, which characterize corporations working pipelines, gasoline storage, and infrastructure to import liquefied pure gasoline (LNG). Members embrace oil majors akin to Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Eni, which have posted report income off the again of the power disaster triggered by the invasion.

Local weather advocates concern the tweets characterize the tip of the iceberg of behind-closed-doors efforts to steer European governments to again long-term investments in gasoline over the rollout of renewables and power effectivity wanted to realize the European Union’s local weather targets.

“The gasoline trade desires us to consider that extra gasoline makes us safer, however extra gasoline results in extra local weather change which in actuality makes us much less safe,” stated Ben Franta, senior analysis fellow on the Oxford Sustainable Legislation Programme, who analyses authorized methods for holding fossil gasoline producers accountable for his or her local weather impacts.

“The gasoline trade is utilizing right this moment’s information — the warfare and the power disaster — to attempt to lock in additional gasoline for many years, though the trade is aware of it’ll be disastrous for the local weather and worldwide stability,” he stated.

‘Large Boon’

The DeSmog evaluation of 1,075 tweets by the 4 foyer teams confirmed that posts emphasising power safety, or the prospect of an power scarcity or disaster, accounted for about three % of tweets within the 10 months previous to the invasion. That proportion shot up greater than tenfold after the warfare began, with power safety–associated messaging showing in a few third of tweets from late February to December. Collectively, the 4 foyer teams have greater than 15,000 followers. The tweets generally used hashtags akin to #StrategicAutonomy or #SecurityOfSupply.

To maintain shifting on the #energytransition whereas guaranteeing #securityofsupply we’d like:

✅a talented workforce,
✅CCUS scale up,
✅regulatory framework driving demand for #H2,
✅renewable gases ramp up,
✅LNG infrastructure.@EurogasJ on the CCUS & Hydrogen Decarbonisation Summit. pic.twitter.com/PsbDpm7Ke7

— Eurogas (@Eurogas_Eu) March 30, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine final February 24 pushed gasoline costs to report ranges; threatened to cripple European households; raised the prospect of winter shortages; and despatched international locations reliant on imports of Russian pipeline gasoline scrambling for options.

Local weather advocates acknowledged the necessity for emergency gasoline imports to bridge the hole as Europe quickly weaned itself off its dependence on Russia.

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However campaigners say the gasoline trade is exploiting a short lived disaster to revive long-standing plans to construct new terminals to import LNG from suppliers from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Qatar to Australia, and lay new pipelines — hooking Europe on imported gasoline for many years to come back.

That prospect seems to contradict EU local weather targets, which indicate a discount in gasoline demand of not less than 35 % in contrast with 2019 ranges by 2030. The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane related to the tasks will even undermine world local weather targets, analysts warn.

“Earlier than February 2022, it appeared that gasoline infrastructure tasks had been beginning to flounder, gasoline was more and more being seen as a non-viable funding in Europe as a result of local weather targets, stranded asset threats, public protests,” stated Greig Aitken of analysis and advocacy group World Vitality Monitor.

“The warfare has been a giant boon for the European gasoline trade, and the gasoline exporting international locations that the EU is now extra depending on,” Aitken stated.

The surge in new tasks dangers producing over-capacity that can result in stranded property, Aitken warned. For the reason that invasion, the gasoline trade has introduced that 195 billion cubic meters (bcm) per 12 months in LNG import terminal capability will come on-line by 2026, at a minimal price of seven billion euros, in line with World Vitality Monitor knowledge. Earlier than the warfare, in contrast, the EU imported 155 bcm of gasoline in 2021 from Russia, together with LNG.

James Weston, secretary-general of Eurogas, which represents dozens of European gasoline corporations and several other U.S. LNG exporters, stated the group’s members had a “severe accountability” to answer the power disaster on behalf of customers and trade.

“Subsequent winter goes to come back round in a short time and there’s no room for complacency,” Weston stated in an emailed assertion. “Our door is open to all local weather and power stakeholders who wish to be a part of us in discourse about how we are able to finest handle the twin crises of local weather and power safety.”

Gasoline For Local weather referred DeSmog to its web site, which says that gasoline infrastructure would stay essential via 2050 because the trade shifted to “renewable” and “low carbon” gases to fulfill the targets of the 2015 Paris local weather settlement.

“Gasoline for Local weather advocates a wise mixture of electrical energy and gasoline in an built-in power system to ship an reasonably priced transition to local weather neutrality,” the web site says.

Gasoline Infrastructure Europe and the Worldwide Affiliation of Oil & Gasoline Producers didn’t reply to requests for remark. Each organisations say on their web sites that they’re supporting the sector to realize local weather neutrality.

Narrative Shift

The shift in the direction of power safety messaging was most marked in posts by Gasoline Infrastructure Europe — which represents gasoline storage, pipeline, and LNG terminal operators — with nearly half of the group’s post-invasion tweets discussing power safety.

Inside the power safety messaging, DeSmog recognized three broad arguments utilized by the 4 foyer teams: issues about winter power shortages; the necessity to shield customers; and help for home gasoline manufacturing.

#Europe must diversify its #gas suppliers and strengthen its #energy autonomy.

How?
🔶Tapping into the huge quantity of #naturalgas reserves & assets now we have in Europe.⬇️

👉The #EU ought to present the suitable regulatory framework to incentivize #DomesticProduction proper now. pic.twitter.com/YEEgHbB91y

— IOGP Europe (@IOGP_EU) May 13, 2022

Winter-related messaging was commonest in Eurogas and Gasoline Infrastructure Europe posts; shopper safety was referenced most regularly in Eurogas posts; and help for home gasoline manufacturing was discovered most frequently in posts by the Worldwide Affiliation of Oil & Gasoline Producers, which additionally used its Twitter account to applaud nationwide efforts by international locations, together with the UK, Norway, Denmark, and Greece, to spice up home gasoline manufacturing.

The surge in power safety messaging occurred in opposition to a gentle drumbeat of tweets portraying gasoline as a clear power supply, and selling gasoline and hydrogen infrastructure as essential to the power transition, all through the 2 10 month-periods analysed on both aspect of the invasion.

Phrases akin to “low-carbon gasoline” or “renewable gasoline” — which critics say quantity to greenwashing since they downplay the trade’s local weather influence — appeared in tweets from numerous foyer teams.

Current 🇪🇺 #gasinfrastructure may be simply tailored to hold #renewable and #lowcarbon gases. This may also help guarantee #energysecurity throughout the continent.

Extra insights in our newest Let’s Discuss 👇🏽 https://t.co/pcEP01Z8lG pic.twitter.com/jDtMCiYjKs

— Eurogas (@Eurogas_Eu) February 18, 2022

The teams additionally portrayed a know-how referred to as carbon seize and storage, which traps CO2 emitted from industrial websites, and hydrogen, as options for offering “clear gasoline” and decarbonising the power system.

Among the tweets additionally promoted renewable power. Campaigners say the gasoline trade typically seeks to foster the notion that gasoline and renewables are roughly equal by way of sustainability, and might work collectively in a decarbonized power system.

“The gasoline trade will advocate for renewables to advocate for gasoline alongside it,” stated Pascoe Sabido, researcher for the Brussels-based marketing campaign group Company Europe Observatory. “They’re saying ‘we wish all the things’ as a strategy to open a again door and preserve [gas] going.”

“A reputable path would require greater than electrification solely. #Gas needs to be seen as a 2nd pillar together with electrification. Gasoline is versatile, permits switching from coal, supplies safety of provides and can allow integration of renewables.” stated Daybreak Summers.#Gas4future pic.twitter.com/nYHiu3XDgT

— IOGP Europe (@IOGP_EU) October 14, 2021

Most of the corporations within the teams DeSmog analysed are members of the Worldwide Gasoline Union, a worldwide foyer that has additionally emphasised power safety for the reason that Ukraine invasion, in line with an evaluation revealed by InfluenceMap in December.

Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies have additionally communicated larger “patriotism” of their post-invasion social media posts by specializing in components together with power safety and power independence, in line with a examine revealed in November by analysis group Stable Sustainability Analysis.

“To promote imported gasoline infrastructure in Europe as an power safety thought is unnecessary,” stated Kingsmill Bond, an power strategist at RMI, an power suppose tank. “There are actually superior, cheaper, and home low-carbon options out there, and they’re going to get cheaper over time. Gasoline won’t.”

Italy Pushes the Gasoline Pedal

EU international locations that had been closely depending on Russia for provides, akin to Germany and Italy, have pushed laborious for brand spanking new gasoline imports and infrastructure.

The Italian authorities has signed 11 gasoline provide offers with exporting international locations — greater than every other EU nation previously 12 months — in line with knowledge compiled by the European Council on International Relations.

Researcher Lorenzo Mario Pastore and colleagues on the College of Sapienza in Rome revealed a examine displaying that it could be cheaper for Italy to make use of power effectivity and renewables to scale back gasoline consumption, relatively than discover new fossil gasoline sources.

Drought has underscored Italy’s vulnerability to local weather impacts, with Venice canals operating dry and lakes and rivers in Northern Italy considerably beneath their traditional degree.

However, Italy’s authorities has struck gasoline agreements with Algeria, Libya, and different African international locations for the reason that Ukraine invasion; invested in two LNG import terminals; and, in November, authorized authorities funding for drilling of “Italian gasoline” within the Adriatic.

“Within the face of rising stress, the Italian authorities has not taken the chance to decarbonize its power combine with low-cost renewables however has, in truth, been pursuing a coverage of substituting gasoline with different gasoline,” wrote Luka Vasilj, a coverage analyst at Local weather Analytics, in an article revealed by Italian local weather suppose tank Ecco.

Oil and gasoline firm Eni and pipeline operator Snam have each sought to justify new investments by way of power safety.

“We now have an issue of power safety,” Eni Chief Govt Claudio DeScalzi advised a convention name with monetary analysts three weeks after the Ukraine invasion. “What we’d like now, particularly these days for Europe, is gasoline.”

DeScalzi and the chief government of pipeline operator Snam have since advocated for a rise in oil and gasoline investments in Africa, InfluenceMap has discovered. In the meantime, final Might, Snam argued that Italy may place itself as a European gasoline hub to counter “the emergency” menace to gasoline provides within the brief time period — and enhance power safety in the long run.

Snam bolstered the message in a sequence of Fb and Instagram adverts, in line with DeSmog’s evaluation. After the invasion, the corporate paid the platforms’ guardian firm Meta between 1,800-2,100 euros for 3 adverts that mentioned power safety, or promoted Snam’s position in guaranteeing secure provides. These adverts made greater than two million impressions throughout Italy.

Eni and Snam didn’t reply to requests for remark.

The proper-wing coalition authorities of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who gained snap elections in September, has additionally justified new gasoline tasks by way of power safety.

In a transfer indicative of the nation’s modified priorities, Meloni’s authorities has reorganised what had been the Ministry of Ecological Transition, accountable for environmental safety, into a brand new entity: the Ministry of the Surroundings and Vitality Safety.

“Vitality safety has all the time been a mantra to justify gasoline import infrastructure,” stated Alessandro Runci, public finance and multinationals campaigner at Italy-based advocacy group ReCommon. “For the reason that invasion, it has turn out to be a trump card.”