‘We’re shifting to offensive actions’

On Monday, the Ukrainian deputy minister of protection gave a press release translated right here by Tim Mak: “A defensive operation consists of every thing, together with counteroffensive actions. Due to this fact, in some areas we’re shifting to offensive actions.”

Proper now, what we all know is that there are Ukrainian advances occurring each north and south of Bakhmut, and probably within the metropolis itself. There are additionally numerous Ukrainian actions underway alongside the southern entrance west of Vuhledar. Lastly, the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom for Russia Legion look like holding each Russian territory and Russian prisoners.

All this clearly represents a counteroffensive. However is it the counteroffensive? Is that this the massive push we’ve been anticipating since Ukrainian advances cooled down with the climate final fall, and talked about all by way of the stunted Russian winter offensive and months of mud? That’s unclear.

Proper now, extra studies are coming in from Russian sources than from Ukrainian, and people studies are all around the map. There’s one report that Russia “crushed” a Ukrainian drive and destroyed over thirty autos. One other has Ukraine busting by way of Russian defensive strains and liberating a city in southern Ukraine. The one factor sure at this second is that this sample, the place Ukrainian sources are principally silent and Russian forces are chattering a mile a minute, is one which has been seen earlier than. It occurred with Kharkiv final fall. And with Kherson.

One factor that ought to be famous instantly: As a result of a number of this data, even when reported by way of acquainted names, is finally going again to studies on Russian Telegram channels, the extent of belief in a lot of what’s popping out right this moment ought to be low. Very low. The truth that Ukrainian sources are being quiet displays nicely on Ukraine’s operational safety, however secondhand information from Russian sources positively deepens the fog of battle.

Nonetheless, based mostly on every thing that’s coming down the mile-a-minute pipeline, there are at the least 5 offensive operations underway by Ukraine.

BAKHMUT

That very same deputy minister of protection that gave the “shifting to offensive” quote additionally mentioned that Bakhmut “stays on the heart” of operations.

Within the Bakhmut space, Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated a portion of the city of Berkhivka, northwest of town. Russia initially captured this space again in February as a part of the semi-encirclement that allowed them to position strain on Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut from three sides. One essential issue about Berkivka is that it sits simply south of the M03 freeway that runs northwest to Slovyansk. When Russia captured that location, it lower off one of many largest routes of provide into Bakhmut, making the state of affairs there way more troublesome for Ukraine.

But when Ukraine is ready to transfer by way of Berkhivka and attain the M03, it could put Russia in an excellent worse spot. As a result of a number of Russian models moved west alongside the freeway, extending a salient 8 kilometers west to some extent north of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Russia has no different exit route for these forces, that are already pinned by Ukrainian forces on three sides. There’s a risk that a big group of Russian forces might be fully lower off.

After all, the first supply for all that is … not one of the best. A lot of this data is coming from the mercenary Wagner Group CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose relationship with the reality is barely nodding on his greatest day. Prigozhin might be overselling Ukraine’s advance within the space simply to press his claims that solely his Wagner forces are able to holding positions round Bakhmut. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces had already made verified strikes on this path final week, and it appears affordable that they need to prolong their features.

Then there’s Bakhmut itself. As within the metropolis. At the same time as Prigozhin was claiming that Wagner had lastly taken town, Ukraine was nonetheless claiming that it was holding onto that excessive southwest nook of Bakhmut—the realm simply west of the freeway on the metropolis’s southern entrance (in case you enlarge the picture above, you may see there’s a big equipment manufacturing facility and several other industrial buildings on this space). Now the Ukrainian basic workers is reporting progress “within the metropolis.” Does this imply they’re recapturing blocks and taking again parts of Bakhmut? It’s solely potential, particularly since Prigozhin reported final week that Wagner forces had withdrawn from 99% of town. Nonetheless, in the meanwhile there aren’t any particulars.

South of Bakhmut, the city of Klishchiivka has been on the receiving finish of shelling with a reported Ukrainian advance within the space. Once more, a lot of this data is coming from Russian sources, and it’s exhausting to inform how a lot is actual, how a lot is panic, and the way a lot is fake studies given out to allow them to declare to have “stopped the Ukrainians,” however there’s a reported advance on this path. The settlement is necessary due to heights overlooking its western border. If Ukraine occupies these, it each forces Russians out of Klishchiivka itself and territory farther east, and supplies one more excessive vantage level to fireplace on Russian forces inside Bakhmut itself.

VELYKA NOVOSILKA

The combating within the south seems to be underway at a number of areas, however Velyka Novosilka is close to the middle of the motion, so for now I’m hanging that title on this part of the entrance. Preventing on this space seems to have begun on Sunday, with Ukrainian assaults reported close to Novodarivka, Neskuchne, and Novodonetske.

A tank battle happened east of Novodarivka on Sunday during which it seems that at the least three tanks confronted off. A Russian T-80 got here out the loser, with the entire ammo provide cooking off seconds after the tank was hit. It’s unclear if Ukraine has continued to press the assault on this space.

Additionally on Sunday, Ukraine superior a number of infantry combating autos and MRAPS into the realm south of Velyka Novosilka. This advance seems to have been stopped by Russian artillery, with Ukrainian forces apparently leaving broken autos behind. No less than one automobile seems to have been hit over a kilometer to the north, reportedly by a Russian drone. 

The Russian ministry of protection touted this incident on Monday morning, claiming that they’d stopped a “main offensive” taking out “over thirty autos” and tons of of troops. Russia gave the impression to be claiming the counteroffensive was over earlier than it started—to not point out the Russian bloggers who claimed “all of the Abrams tanks” had been destroyed on this thwarted assault.

It now appears as if Ukraine has resumed the assault on this path and that Sunday’s effort was extra of a “reconnaissance in drive.” There are studies that Ukraine has liberated the realm west of Storozheve and damaged by way of Russian trenches at that location, however this (like every thing else this afternoon) is unconfirmed.

The third prong of Ukraine’s assault on this space is southeast of Velyka Novosilka close to Novodonetske. This city was previously occupied by Russia, though the realm round it had been in dispute and Russian trench strains are literally south of the city. On Sunday, Russia claimed to have stopped a Ukrainian advance on this space. On Monday, Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine has liberated Novodonetske, forcing them to retreat.

One notable merchandise along with this advance: A number of Russian sources within the space claimed that they’d noticed the primary Leopard tanks getting used on the entrance strains. Nonetheless, photographs counsel that the brand new gear within the space is definitely the small, wheeled French AMX-10rc. That will match with different studies that the assault concerned Ukraine’s thirty seventh Marine Brigade, as that brigade skilled on NATO gear, together with the AMX.

There’s a widely-circulating picture that’s being reported as exhibiting a Leopard 2 that has been destroyed. That picture is a fake. Russian Telegram channels are additionally circulating another image claiming it’s an deserted Leopard. It’s not a Leopard, however it could be an AMX-10rc misplaced as a part of the recon south of Velyka Novosilka. Nonetheless, the camo within the picture means that the automobile in query is painted within the tan, desert camo that the AMX-10rc usually wears for French operations in Africa and AMX in Ukrainian service have been repainted months in the past. So it could even be a faux. Or not. It’s very foggy. A second picture reportedly reveals two extra AMX-10rc left behind, however these additionally look to be within the former desert tan coloration. Additionally foggy.

Regardless of a number of claims, it’s not clear that any precise Leopard I or Leopard 2 is but on the entrance strains. It’s additionally not clear that Ukraine has put collectively the form of massive, mixed arms assault that many anticipated. The dimensions of actions up to now suggests they might nonetheless be “feeling out” operations, however they’ve apparently been fairly profitable. 

Even when Ukraine did start assaults on this space as a minor a part of the general plan, or even when this was meant as a diversionary tactic for an assault to be launched elsewhere, Ukraine appears to be assembly with some success. if they’ve really punched by way of Russian defenses in two areas shifting extra forces into this location could be a good suggestion—it’s solely 85 kilometers to Mariupol.

BELGOROD

In the meantime, Ukraine-aligned Russian forces working below the ”RDK” banner (the Russian initials for “Russian Volunteer Corps”), report that they proceed to carry at the least a part of the Russian village of Novaya Tavolzhanka south of Belgorod. Over the weekend, in addition they took at the least two Russian prisoners, who RDK leaders indicated could be utilized in prisoner exchanges with Russia.

A number of maps counsel that the anti-Putin forces are literally holding onto a a lot bigger portion of Belgorod oblast. In the mean time, there’s no visible affirmation of something exterior the Novaya Tavolzhanka space. Even so, that RDK has been in a position to apparently stay accountable for Russian territory for a interval of days goes a protracted option to indicating that not solely is Russia’s border extraordinarily porous, its dwelling protection forces are dysfunctional.