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On Saturday morning, the information from the entrance is … just about what it was yesterday. At Bakhmut, Russia has launched a sequence of recent assaults from the south, all of which have apparently been repelled. Identical as all the time. At Lyman, there are reviews that Russian forces have withdrawn and that Ukraine is making ready a ultimate push into the town. Identical as just about on daily basis this week.
Simply hauling up yesterday’s Lyman map for reference, Russians sources report that they managed to get some air help to sluggish Ukrainian troops shifting towards Ridkodub. So whereas there are different reviews suggesting that Ukraine controls each Ridkodub and Nove (largely within the type of reviews that Russia shelled these areas), I’m not updating for now. There are additionally reviews that Ukrainian forces have entered Novoselivka and management about half that location. Novoselivka is just about reduce off from the remainder of the realm by lakes to the east and a steep valley / canyon on the north, so holding this place doesn’t actually appear to supply a superb probability to maneuver wherever else. Russia claimed it acquired extra pressure to Drobysheve and helped get away these two mercenary items that had been encircled within the city. In an incident reportedly going down north of Lozove, Ukrainian forces shot down not one, however two Su-25 jets—probably the identical planes that had been offering floor help at Ridkodub. [Correction: On closer inspection, the plane flying away appears to be a shiny new SU-30SM multirole fighter]
The second SU-25 is ready to fly out of the image with engine that’s very a lot within the strategy of consuming itself. I can’t inform from the obtainable pictures whether or not it additionally crashes or makes it away. In any case, it received’t return quickly.
There appears to be ongoing combating at Derylove, Drobysheve, Novoselivka, Lyman, Serednie, Shandryholove, and north of Lozove. And that’s simply what’s getting reported. Which might be why the variety of Russian troops being listed as killed every day has been working upwards of 400.
It’s a variety of combating. Why Ukrainian forces aren’t in a position to smash this space they manner they did Balakliya and Izyum, I don’t know. I don’t have a superb deal with on the variety of troops combating right here on both aspect, and among the people who’re normally good at displaying the deployment of items appear simply as baffled. Either side report that the opposite is getting reinforcements. Russian sources appear satisfied that Ukraine is placing in “all of the reserves” (spoiler alert: they aren’t) for an enormous push at Lyman within the subsequent 48 hours.
If I be taught something extra, I’ll cross it alongside.
A number of sources are displaying that new recruits to the Russian Military can anticipate stunning, new gear.
And top quality transportation.
To their selection of 5 star lodging.
In any case, you’ll be able to wager Ukraine is quaking now.
For these corporations who didn’t get out of Russia when it was clearly the best factor to do, there may be now an additional reward within the type of serving to ship their staff to die in an unlawful battle.
Everybody is aware of higher than to fiddle with Ents. Ents are badass.
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Mark Sumner
Okay, right here’s one thing of a mini-map replace. Open in one other tab and be ready to observe alongside.
The massive change you’ll be able to see right here is to the realm of “in dispute” in addition to some new villages and cities lighting up on the fringe of this battle. There are good reviews that the combating has now prolonged throughout the Kharkiv / Donetsk border to the touch Hlushchenkove and Maliivka. There are geolocated pictures for each. Particularly, that video of Ukrainian forces capturing down a pair of Russian jets passed off the place that little hearth image is, a few kilometer south of Maliivka. So sure, these had been the identical planes that had been offering hearth help within the space.
On the identical time, I’ve completely no reviews of combating at Serednje and nothing new out of Shandryholove.
Take into account that little blue define curving across the prime of this space my finest guess at what’s really taking place. Ukrainian forces are hooking across the string of lakes and cities within the heart of this space quite than advancing straight north from the Lozove — Lyman line. Which will become an phantasm, nevertheless it suits with the reviews of present combating.
Russian sources as soon as once more reported that Russia is making a counterattack from Ridkodub and Nove towards Karpivka. Nonetheless, there have been comparable reviews yesterday and nothing appears to have come of it. The fights happening in locations like Novoselivka could also be just about behind Ukrainian traces, however the topography there makes it onerous to get on the city from various areas, so they’re remoted from what’s taking place to the north. And if Ukraine’s objective is to recover from to Stavky and transfer down on Lyman from the north, that also appears a number of strikes away.
In Lyman, Ukraine reportedly controls an space each within the southwest nook, and the southeast nook of the town with Russia nonetheless holding the middle and implementing it with artillery positioned to the north.
That’s my finest interpretation for now. There are nonetheless tons of reviews within the space, 99.9% of that are most likely too optimistic. Heck, this report might be too optimistic. We’ll see.
Oh, and as you may anticipate, Russia is reporting simply fabulous turnout for this referendums. Don’t be stunned if by finish of day Sunday they announce they’ve sufficient votes to name it in all 4 areas.
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Mark Sumner
Within the final hour, there was first rate affirmation that Ukraine has totally liberated Lozove (the Donetsk Lozove, on this map, not the opposite Lozove that’s a part of a bridgehead in Kherson). There are additionally unconfirmed reviews that Ukraine has liberated Ridkodub and Nove, with combating happening to each north and south of these positions. Ready for affirmation.
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