What is going on on in Severodonetsk defies description as either side pound the town

At this level, attempting to say something about Severodonetsk past “preventing continues” is pointless. We all know this a lot in regards to the sequence of occasions: Ukraine rapidly fell again as Russian forces first entered the town, permitting them to seize as a lot as 80-90% of the realm; Ukrainian forces then surged ahead, in live performance with artillery firing from throughout the river in Lysychansk, and rapidly retook about half the town; by Sunday, it was Russia that was right down to lower than a 3rd of the town, however Russia responded by pushing extra troops into the town and extra artillery into the outskirts; since then the battle has surged backwards and forwards by the town streets, with neither aspect in a position to totally achieve the higher hand. Russia doesn’t management as a lot because it did at its peak. Neither does Ukraine. The losses for either side are each sickening and mind-boggling. On Saturday, Russia could have suffered its highest degree of losses for any single day of the invasion, but it surely’s doable that the identical could possibly be mentioned about Ukraine.

Based mostly on probably the most dependable stories obtainable on Tuesday morning, Ukraine has suffered a severe setback in its efforts to recapture and maintain the town. Ukrainian troops nonetheless management the western industrial areas of the town and are preventing within the east. Russia primarily holds the north and components of the town middle, besides that Russian makes an attempt to advance are nonetheless being obliterated by the artillery on the opposing bluff. Probably the most correct factor to say in the meanwhile is that nobody controls Severodonetsk.

Over the past 24 hours, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made statements suggesting that Ukraine could quickly withdraw from the town. Whether or not these are getting ready the Ukrainian public for shedding the town, goading NATO nations into hurrying up with new {hardware}, or luring Russia in for an additional spherical of pulverizing … it’s not possible to inform. Probably it’s all three.

Once more, Ukraine arrange a scenario the place Russian forces within the Donbas suffered horrific losses. And Russia remains to be coming. As a result of till these losses attain a degree of constructing Russian forces ineffective, they merely don’t care.

Any map pretending to have a street-by-street-level mapping of the present scenario in Severodonetsk is simply that, a pretense. It’s doable the subsequent hours will determine the destiny of the town. It’s extra possible that the subsequent time we replace, the part “preventing continues” will nonetheless be all we all know. One fast warning when searching for data on this battle: pro-Russian trolls and bots are out in excessive numbers, proclaiming that Severodonetsk is already taken, that there by no means was any counteroffensive within the metropolis, and that the “overseas mercenaries” had been all simply worn out. Simply take the truth that Russia is throwing up such a excessive degree of smoke nearly as good proof that the hearth remains to be burning. 

Zaporizhzhia Space

In the meantime, one thing distinctly odd is occurring in southern Ukraine. At level after level, from Vasylivka right down to Melitopol and past, observers are noting that Russian checkpoints have been “deserted.” There are even stories that Russian troops have been withdrawn from a lot of the realm, with some sources—together with Russian Telegram accounts—saying that troops have been shifted into the Kherson space. 

This could possibly be one thing so simple as a “rotation” of recent troops to the entrance strains. Russia very clearly hasn’t left behind this complete space. Preventing continues between Hulyaipole and Polohy, in addition to south of Orikhiv. This complete space represents that “land bridge” between the Donbas and Crimea. It’s not one thing Russia would stroll away from, even when it was desperately attempting to throw extra troops into the battle elsewhere.

Based mostly on claims that Russia was massing a convoy alongside the street south of Vasyivka for an assault on Zaporizhzhia, this could possibly be a basic reorganization of forces in that space. Perhaps platoon-level forces holding checkpoints inside Russian-occupied territory are being rolled into extra makeshift BTGs for the tried advance. 

That reorganization could create some prospects for Ukraine, but when a big assault drive strikes on Zaporizhzhia, even whether it is, as rumors counsel, utilizing previous T-62 tanks and scraped collectively forces, stopping that assault goes to change into the main focus within the space.

Kharkiv space

We’ve been noting for a while that there have been odd patterns of artillery hearth within the space of Staryi Saltiv. When Ukraine first rolled into the realm in Might, there was a transparent sample: with every step up the map, Ukraine bombarded the realm throughout the river in an effort to clear a possible bridgehead. Although, since these bridges had been out, any crossing would require repairs or a pontoon bridge.

Over the past week, that sample has been enjoying out once more. The purple spots on this map symbolize one week’s value of artillery exercise within the space round Staryi Saltiv. The small quantity of exercise north of Buhaivka is an effective indicator that Ukrainian troops are nonetheless current on that aspect of the river, although not in sufficient drive to make a severe advance on Vovchansk. However the heavy concentrations of fireside within the space throughout the bridge from Rubizhne, and even up the river at Starytysa, are a real thriller. 

Sadly, clouds within the space imply that the final good satellite tv for pc knowledge for the Rubizhne space is from all the best way again on Might 23.

On this picture, it’s straightforward to see the hole in the midst of the Rubizhne bridge, which was blown open by Russian forces as Ukrainian troops moved towards the realm at first of Might. Not like Staryi Saltiv—which is situated on a reservoir above a dam, making the Siverskyi Donets over a kilometer extensive—the river above the Rubizhne bridge is lower than 100m extensive. The truth is, within the space the place loads of that artillery has been falling, the river is split by an island leading to channels that max out at about 60m. It’s definitely an space that will be simpler to cross with a pontoon bridge.

Is Russian firing artillery at a Ukrainian crossing try? In all probability not, because the morning report from the Ukrainian MOD complained about Russian mines on the street south of Rubizhne. Russia has held many of the city for the final two weeks, with an ongoing skirmish across the south aspect. That would appear to make it extra possible that Ukraine is pounding these positions—presumably to stop the motion of Russian artillery into the realm. Probably to clear an space for his or her subsequent step.