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Test right here after preliminary votes are reported to get our stay estimates of the race’s consequence.
The query for watchers of election nights in all places is all the time the identical: How late am I going to must wait for this?
Some states have constant sufficient histories to permit that query to be answered with relative confidence. Iowa shouldn’t be considered one of them.
Sometimes, precincts in Iowa have begun reporting outcomes in a short time. In 2016, for instance, they did so shortly after 8:30 p.m. Japanese time, nearly half an hour after the caucuses started. And practically all outcomes had been in by 12:50 a.m. Japanese time that 12 months.
In 2020, although, the system melted down throughout the Democratic caucuses, and the Iowa Democratic Celebration was unable to launch any vital outcomes that evening. Full outcomes got here days afterward.
Even in years when the counting was fast, outcomes that had been initially reported weren’t all the time correct. Within the Republican contest in 2012, the caucus-night numbers confirmed that Mitt Romney had gained by eight votes. The Iowa Republican Celebration stated greater than two weeks later that Rick Santorum had truly gained by 34 votes.
This 12 months’s caucuses usually are not anticipated to be wherever close to that aggressive, though the race for second place between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may very well be. Nonetheless, it’s finest to be ready for something.
Alicia Parlapiano contributed reporting.
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