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@TBPInvictus right here
In the event you’re uninterested in California-minimum-wage-and-its-impact-on-limited-service-restaurant-employment tales, I perceive. Go away this web page instantly. I’m uninterested in it, too, however some tales are so factually challenged that they demand a response. So, permit me to handle a scorching mess of a narrative that appeared lately within the California Globe. Within the curiosity of your time and my sanity, I’m going to attempt to confine myself to the worst of the story’s atrocities. Strap in.
Proper up high, we now have the lede:
Earlier in June, the Globe reported that California has misplaced just below 10,000 quick meals jobs because the new $20 minimal wage for quick meals staff was first signed into regulation late final 12 months, based on the California Enterprise and Industrial Alliance (CABIA).
CABIA cited information and a report from the Hoover Establishment at Stanford College.
The “earlier in June” report was, sadly, badly mistaken. Fatally flawed, truly. That was detailed by us right here and, subsequently, by Michael Hiltzik right here. The truth is, the writer on the Hoover Establishment – Lee Ohanian – recanted upon studying that the information within the Wall St. Journal on which he’d relied was not seasonally adjusted.
So, there’s no observe up story for the Globe to inform within the first place, but it goes on:
The Globe spoke with Rebekah Paxton Friday morning concerning the Bureau of Labor Statistics experiences, for clarification.
“Yesterday, they put out a press launch claiming that California’s quick meals trade has added each month this 12 months,” Paxton mentioned. “The fact is that California misplaced over 2,500 quick meals jobs since January 2024, when taking a look at seasonally adjusted information.
Ms. Paxton, to her nice credit score (/sarc), apparently has enough smarts to know that seasonally adjusted information needs to be the main target. Child steps.
On to the alleged proof of Newsom’s catastrophe:
Month Variety of Jobs Change in Jobs Jan 2024 742,326 1,050 Feb 2024 741,822 -503 Mar 2024 739,792 -2,031 Apr 2024 739,850 59 Might 2024 739,804 -46 When utilizing January 2024 as a substitute of January 2023, there may be certainly a lack of over 2,500 jobs in simply that 5 month interval.
For starters, January looks as if a considerably random place to begin — the regulation was signed final September and took impact this April. So, January to Might feels a bit arbitrary.
However right here’s the query: Have “over 2,500 jobs in simply that 5-month interval” been misplaced? No, pricey reader. They haven’t. The Globe, amazingly, can’t even sum a column of 5 small numbers.
We’ve precisely two prints because the regulation took impact – April and Might. They present a internet acquire of a statistically insignificant 13 jobs added. There have been 2k shed in March. Was that associated to the minimal wage? We merely have no idea; there are all the time myriad components at play in our dynamic labor market. What ought to occur right here – however received’t – is that we wait, patiently, and acquire plenty of extra information from which we will – perhaps – make some inferences.
We transfer on to:
Paxton instructed the Globe that the actual job losses started the day the Legislature handed the $20 minimal wage hike invoice. That may clarify why the Hoover Establishment compiled the ten,000 quick meals job losses.
Once more, sadly, no. What explains the Hoover Establishment’s since-retracted declare is that the writer relied on, and extrapolated from, a foul quantity that appeared within the WSJ in March. (“Ohanian acknowledged by e mail that “if the information should not seasonally adjusted, then no conclusions may be drawn from these information concerning AB 1228,” the minimal wage regulation.”)
Gov. Newsom and his employees together with Brandon, are selecting numbers and months to serve Newsom’s personal false narrative.
That is straight-up fiction. Newsom and his employees tried to set the document straight. It was the Journal, then Hoover, then CABIA, that did the entire cherry-picking, and used a foul set of numbers to do it.
A bit out of sequence, however price mentioning: The Globe took a gratuitous swipe at LA Occasions columnist Michael Hiltzik, who’d adopted our work right here with a chunk of his personal, citing a few tweets on the matter (mixed right here):
Only one downside right here, Gavin: The @latimes acquired its information blended up. You despatched reporter Michael Hiltzik information from 2023 to point out that fast-food employment is up. The wage hike happened Apr 1 2024. That’s not even math. That’s simply having the ability to learn a calendar. @GovPressOffice. The @latimes‘ Michael Hiltzik is among the many worst reporters in California, and proves it once more right here: Cites information from final 12 months to show that fast-food employment is up this 12 months, regardless of @GavinNewsom‘s wage hike. His numbers aren’t faux, simply mistaken 12 months. May occur to anybody with the identify “Michael Hiltzik.” @GovPressOffice
Hiltzik (who had been despatched nothing from Newsom) had — fairly appropriately because the information weren’t seasonally adjusted — seemed on the numbers on a year-over-year foundation and concluded:
As of April, employment within the limited-service restaurant sector that features fast-food institutions was increased by almost 7,000 jobs than it was in April 2023, months earlier than Newsom signed the minimal wage invoice.
Michael was taking a look at a Might classic of not seasonally adjusted information when he wrote his June 12 piece, and the year-over-year acquire at the moment was, the truth is, “almost 7,000 jobs.”
Now, you may anticipate a good media outlet to make a number of corrections or pull the piece totally. However you’ll observe I used the phrase “respected,” so don’t maintain your breath.
On a associated observe, I had an e mail alternate with a Tony Lima – who undoubtedly needs you to know that he acquired a PhD from Stanford – a couple of piece he posted right here. He tried – and failed misearbly – to take Michael Hiltzik to process for his latest column: “There are three issues with Hiltzik’s evaluation.” There weren’t three issues with Michael’s evaluation, and I conveyed that to Professor Physician Lima in painstaking element. He then invited me to have the controversy in public (whereas semi-obsessing about my identification):
I took Physician Professor Lima up on his provide, and posted my correct critique of his work on Twitter, instantly after which this occurred:
So, Professor Lima, PhD, simply know that I’m round – you realize my Twitter deal with and have my e mail handle – for those who ever need to proceed our dialogue.
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