Why most GOP girls are standing by their man

By Errin Haines

Initially revealed by The nineteenth

This column first appeared in The Modification, a brand new biweekly e-newsletter by Errin Haines, The nineteenth’s editor-at-large.

Final week, a New York jury held former President Donald Trump accountable for defaming a lady he was discovered civilly liable of sexually assaulting. Up to now accountability is one thing his voters, together with a majority of GOP girls, haven’t but demanded within the 2024 election cycle.

January marked the primary official take a look at of Trump’s assumed front-runner standing for this 12 months’s Republican presidential nomination and the beginning of a marketing campaign that can characteristic frequent detours to a courthouse. The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire main — each of which Trump received — ran parallel to the second civil trial between Trump and author E. Jean Carroll.

In 2016, Trump was elected a month after a tape emerged of him bragging about grabbing girls, saying, “Once you’re a star, they allow you to do it. You are able to do something.” This 12 months, he seems headed again to the Republican nomination, as in style as ever along with his base — together with GOP girls who’re extra targeted on points just like the financial system than accusations in opposition to Trump. What a distinction eight years doesn’t make.

“The fact is Republican girls are Republican for a motive — they strongly assist these insurance policies and are keen to miss this,” mentioned Melissa Deckman, chief government officer of the Public Faith Analysis Institute whose work focuses on the position of ladies in conservative politics. “You received’t see them switching their allegiance. … They’re sticking with him by means of thick and skinny in methods similar to Republican males. And ladies could be sexist, too.”

Whereas many ladies have moved away from the Republican Get together since 2016, girls are amongst Trump’s staunchest surrogates and supporters: Republican Nationwide Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Home Republican Convention Chair and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

The lone lady and lone remaining challenger to Trump for the GOP nomination, Nikki Haley, has solely lately begun to assault the ex-president, however has targeted on points together with his cognitive means, his age and the controversy he kicks up. In the meantime, Trump has referred to Haley as “Birdbrain,” has mocked her delivery title and raised racist questions on Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, and her eligibility to run for president.

She has gained some momentum, however she nonetheless lags Trump, together with in assist from girls in her personal social gathering. With high-profile GOP girls persevering with to again the previous president regardless of his file on gender, ought to the social gathering’s girls voters select any in another way?

In Iowa’s caucuses — held the day earlier than the trial started — Trump’s assist amongst girls exceeded his assist amongst males, 53 % to 49 %, in keeping with exit polling. In New Hampshire — the identical week the jury awarded $83.3 million in damages to Carroll, 51 % of ladies supported Trump whereas 47 % supported Haley.

Typically talking, conservative voters reject the concept of gender politics, mentioned Jennifer Horn, former chair of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee and a co-founder of anti-Trump political motion committee The Lincoln Challenge.

“Typically that’s an honorable reflection of how they really feel, and typically it’s simply an excuse to fall again on. However I don’t perceive why any lady would ever vote for Donald Trump. There’s nothing woven into Trumpism that’s remotely supportive of ladies,” she mentioned.

In South Carolina, Haley’s residence state, the newest polling reveals Trump’s assist at 64 %, in contrast with 32 % for the previous governor. The state social gathering has additionally lined up behind the previous president, who touts greater than 150 endorsements from lawmakers, together with Rep. Nancy Mace — whose opponent Trump backed and whom Haley endorsed in her 2022 race.

Haley, elected in 2010 as one of many first girls governors of coloration and the youngest governor within the nation on the time, touts her reputation whereas in workplace. However she was final elected in 2014, when the state’s GOP citizens regarded very completely different. And it’s unclear what number of of her votes within the South Carolina main may come from Democrats who cross over to forged a poll for her in opposition to Trump.

For her half, Haley has principally sidestepped Trump’s authorized woes as “a distraction” and has not weighed in on specifics. Requested final week on “Meet the Press” if the jury’s ruling ought to disqualify Trump as a presidential candidate, Haley responded: “I feel the American individuals determine who ought to be disqualified. They’re going to see this for what it’s.” She added, “I completely belief the jury. I feel they made their resolution primarily based on the proof.” The reply drew criticism from Trump and his supporters.

Horn defined, “There’s something within the trendy conservative motion the place these individuals have satisfied themselves that almost all of those accusations are fabricated,” referring to the civil accusations of sexual assault and defamation by Carroll and the 91 felony counts Trump faces in 4 separate circumstances.

For these voters, Horn mentioned, “Trump and males like him develop into unwitting victims to girls. It’s a factless, unsupported assumption that that’s the case.”

Republican strategist Rina Shah mentioned she’s listening to from GOP girls that they’re extra targeted on the financial system and profitable in November and that even when they’re conscious of Trump’s file with girls, it’s not a precedence or a dealbreaker.

“Despite the fact that they didn’t like [Trump], I at all times hear from individuals, ‘We have been advantageous, economically extra sound.’ The belief, they really feel, was misplaced in [Joe] Biden. They might relatively have a state of affairs the place the worth of eggs isn’t what it’s. They don’t care,” Shah mentioned. And lots of aren’t keen to guess on Haley. “American girls are sensible; they don’t wish to take an opportunity on a loser.”

One in all Haley’s arguments in opposition to Trump has been that “chaos follows him” — and that chaos has meant some voters aren’t as clear on the small print of his authorized points as they’re on the worth of groceries.

That’s made simpler by key allies blaming the media or Biden and dismissing questions in regards to the jury’s resolution. Stefanik — thought of a potential Trump working mate — lumped all of the circumstances in opposition to Trump as “witch hunts,” even after he had been discovered liable within the Carroll circumstances.

New polling from Bloomberg and Morning Seek the advice of reveals that nearly 1 / 4 of Republicans in swing states say they’re unwilling to assist Trump if he’s convicted of a criminal offense. Nevertheless it’s unclear which of these circumstances, if any, will make it to trial earlier than November. (Within the civil circumstances introduced by Carroll, he has been ordered to pay $88.3 million whole.)

Haley has vowed to remain within the race at the very least by means of Tremendous Tuesday on March 5. By then, it may very well be much more clear how girls are weighing in on the GOP contest — and particularly, how loyal they continue to be to Trump regardless of his transgressions.

“He has made it OK to dehumanize 51 % of the inhabitants,” Horn mentioned. “To what diploma have a few of these girls who vote for him dehumanized themselves in some way? They’re accepting his definition of ladies. It’s not only a reflection on him; it’s a mirrored image on them. He’s harmful, and so they’re unhappy.”

Whereas some girls within the Republican Get together have come to an identical conclusion, for others, they’re no much less loyal than they have been in 2016. Once you’re star, they allow you to do it — and so they may vote to place you again within the White Home.

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