Will China-Philippines tensions make different South China Sea claimants extra more likely to converse up?

It additionally claimed that the Philippine ships had “disregarded China’s repeated dissuasion and warnings and tried to switch building supplies used for sustaining and repairing the ship, which has been grounded on the shoal illegally”.

The Second Thomas Shoal is managed by Manila but additionally claimed by Hanoi, Taipei and Beijing, which additionally claims the resource-rich South China Sea waterway virtually in its entirety.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow on the S Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research (RSIS) in Singapore, mentioned the Philippines’ neighbours have been more likely to have watched the incident unfold with some unease towards a backdrop of repeated stand-offs between Beijing and Manila.

“[Southeast Asian countries] will definitely view that as one thing fairly worrisome and see it as an uptick in tensions that appear to have constructed up,” mentioned Koh, who specialises in naval affairs within the Indo-Pacific. “They view that as doubtlessly impinging upon regional peace and stability.”

Final weekend’s incident was the primary time since 2021 that China’s coastguard had used a water cannon towards a Philippine resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal.

Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia programme on the Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research, mentioned the incident and the general “rise in Chinese language coercion … makes everybody within the area nervous”.

However the nervousness, he recommended, can be way more rapid for different South China Sea claimants within the area, from Malaysia to Indonesia and Vietnam.

These international locations have in latest months seemed to be extra cautious about China’s actions within the disputed seas.

Manila now had plans to signal a maritime cooperation pact with Hanoi, and Indonesia had undergone a serious shift inside its safety companies after the Chinese language coastguard “dangerously harassed” Indonesian oil and fuel operations some two years in the past, in line with Poling.

“If China continues to ratchet up strain, and particularly if it causes a risk to the lives of Filipino mariners, I count on some Southeast Asian events – Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, doubtlessly a future Thai authorities – might really feel compelled to talk up extra forcefully,” he mentioned.

Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow on the Institute of Strategic and Worldwide Research Malaysia, mentioned claimant states “must be apprehensive”, noting that Malaysian and Vietnamese stations – just like the Philippines – additionally relied on resupply runs.

The response of Southeast Asian international locations would largely depend on their pursuits within the South China Sea and their relationship with China, he added.

Koh from RSIS mentioned most, if not all, Southeast Asian international locations have been more likely to stay silent on the incident or stick with the chorus that they have been monitoring the state of affairs, for worry of showing to take sides and being “embroiled in what gave the impression to be a really pointless downside”.

There was additionally a worry of repercussions from China, which stays a key buying and selling accomplice for most of the area’s economies.

Any continued silence from Southeast Asian international locations, and particularly claimant states that had skilled some type of aggression from China, can be “each telling and damning”, Daniel mentioned.

“Maybe this can be a reflection of an actual worry of escalation dominance by Beijing, which no claimant state can ever hope to counter,” he mentioned.

“Worse nonetheless, maybe Hanoi and Putrajaya [Malaysia] have been slowly, reluctantly, however efficiently conditioned by Beijing to maintain their heads down, within the in the end doomed hope of biding one’s time.”

Past that, the latest stand-off might additionally immediate international locations within the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations to query whether or not they need to nonetheless belief China in negotiating a code of conduct for the South China Sea, mentioned Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, a global regulation knowledgeable on the College of Indonesia.

China and Asean final month accomplished the second studying of a much-delayed code of conduct, which might be a legally binding doc to manage behaviour within the disputed waterway.

Darmawan, whose analysis focuses on maritime safety in Southeast Asia, mentioned it was vital for claimant states to face behind the Philippines and put strain on China to not escalate tensions if Beijing was dedicated within the negotiations.

“In any other case, this exhibits that China will not be reliable on any mechanism and due to this fact there isn’t a level within the negotiation of code of conduct if China doesn’t decide to maintaining peace within the space,” he mentioned.

Whereas most international locations in Southeast Asia would have considered final week’s incident with some anxieties, Koh mentioned some may see it as a “welcome improvement”.

“To not say that they welcome tensions however I believe what they noticed … was a considerably attention-grabbing phenomenon the place there are extra international locations in Southeast Asia who’re extra keen to talk up towards China and, in a method, hoping that not less than it may need some constructive influence of moderating Chinese language behaviour any more,” he mentioned.