With new momentum, Ukraine pushes south and east of Robotyne

We already knew Ukraine had liberated Robotyne, the small however strategically necessary settlement on the advance towards the logistical hub metropolis of Tokmak and, past that, Melitopol. However Ukraine hasn’t stopped there. With Russia’s first main defensive position breached, Ukraine’s advance is selecting up steam.

It’s troublesome sorting by franting Russian Telegram sources, rumors, and visually confirmed advances, so all the same old “fog of battle” caveats apply. However by all indications, Ukraine has superior south and east from Robotyne, and is both inside Novoprokopivka, or imminently so, whereas concurrently threatening Verbove to the east.

Some Russian Telegram sources even declare Ukraine has taken Novoprokopivka, having merely walked in as Russian forces fall again to the subsequent defensive position. Which means Ukraine breached not solely the primary main line north of Robotyne but additionally the road on the street blocking the advance south to Novoprokopivka. The following main Russian defensive position is at Solodka Balka, by the heights east and west of it.

Ukraine hasn’t confirmed Novoprokopivka’s liberation, however there may be attention-grabbing video proof that one thing is happening. First, let’s begin with this video of Ukraine completely mauling a Russian armored column heading north to strengthen Novoprokopivka, the place the T0408 street enters the western fringe of the city.

Truthfully undecided what hit them. May very well be artillery-deployed mines. It wasn’t dumb artillery, which isn’t that exact and even much less so in opposition to transferring targets. It wasn’t Javelins or different anti-tank missiles, except Ukraine can see them from the hills round Robotyne. Which is feasible, I suppose. It’s round 4 kilometers, absolutely the fringe of a typical anti-tank missile’s vary. Nonetheless, the explosions don’t seem to be clear hits, they appear to be hitting the bottom across the armored autos, kicking up mud and dust. They’re actually not being hit with GMLRS rocket artillery. May very well be laser-guided artillery rounds, which I didn’t notice might hit transferring targets this successfully. My finest guess as to what it was? Remotely deployed mines.

Regardless, all this tells us is that Ukraine has fireplace management over the street supplying the Russian garrison at Novoprokopivka. This subsequent video is way extra attention-grabbing:

Yup, these armored autos seem like fleeing Novoprokopivka. That actually appears like dumb artillery, because it’s placing the fields across the street. However the important thing element right here is that Russian forces are abandoning the settlement. It lends credence to the claims Ukraine waltzed in.

Ukraine’s Basic Employees is actually celebrating one thing.

Within the sectors from Novodanilivka to Novoprokopivka and from Mala Tokmachka to Ocheretuvate, our forces not solely made important developments however are actually solidifying their maintain on the newly captured territories.

So that you don’t have to have a look at a map, they’re speaking in regards to the advances immediately south and east of Robotyne. That is what that appears like, based mostly on visually confirmed advances:

Keep in mind, that is the final little bit of excessive floor earlier than heading downhill all the best way to Tokmak. Ukraine remains to be attacking uphill at this level, however they’re nearly there:

Hill 166 is our fellow author RO37’s title for the best elevation level within the space, at an elevation of 166 meters. As soon as taken, Ukraine shall be in a commanding place in that route. So it is smart for Russia to drag out of Novoprokopivka and at last occupy the defensive traces they created to, you understand, defend. These traces run proper by Hill 166.  

Tatrigami_UA, a Twitter person who describes themself as a Ukrainian intelligence officer, shares his learn of the scenario:

The scenario for Russia is getting determined, however Tatrigami_UA doesn’t purchase claims that Russia is working low on reserves. There are stories that Russia is transferring items from Kherson and their Kreminna and Kupyansk assaults to plug gaps, however I don’t know the way legitimate they’re, and nobody credible has confirmed it. We shouldn’t assume that Russia is out of troops.

In any case, breaching that first Russian defensive position at Robotyne was big, and there may be clear momentum on the opposite facet of it. Now we’ll see how efficient that subsequent line shall be. If Ukraine dislodges Russia from it, significantly that ridgeline by Hill 166, the form of the battle will dramatically shift.